2/27 Bracket Update

Bracket 2/27 Update
-Finally nice to see some teams actually try and play their way into the tournament… granted they are teams that most years would be dead but we are obligated to put 68 teams in so we will get them from somewhere but at least we got some kids who wanna dance

- ESPN and the national media are making a non-story a story about the SLU loss at URI… does it hurt the shot at white? Sure… but out? Come on guys… SLU is in… I mean we have Texas who doesn’t have a top 100 RPI winning record in (if your Joe Lunardi) and we are talking about the SLU being out? Wake up media.

- On a similar topic, Harvard had a tough home loss to Penn to fall into a statistical tie for the Ivy League conference title, if they both win out they will have a 1 game playoff for the title (no conf tourney in Ivy). If Harvard was to lose that game would they be out?
NO NO NO, they are 1-0 vs the RPI top 25, 1-1 vs RPI top 50, and 7-3 vs RPI top 100… Texas has 1 RPI top 25 win too, but also 6 losses… so 1-6 vs RPI top 25, 3-8 vs RPI top 50, and 4-9 vs RPI top 100… Harvard is 10-2 L12, Texas is 6-6… now granted I don’t have Texas in my field but the point is this… how are these resumes even close? They aren’t… Harvard is being underseeded because of their name… they might be in march too, but they aren’t in danger of not making it either

- Big East is not making things easy… ND had a tough loss at SJU just when they were about to be a top 4 line lock, their resume still looks a ton like 2011 Florida, if they can make a BET run I expect them to be a protected seed (and if you bet on that in January that’d make the Cardinals winning the WS bet in August look like the lock of the century) , USF keeps winning BE games making it harder and harder to not put them in despite an awful non-conf record, and just when you’re ready to take the Pirates out they win a big game vs Gtown

- The Big X has kinda just turned into a blob mess… the Wisco win at Ohio State was elite, but it makes the NCAA seeding a lot harder… we have Michigan State on the 1 line, and then what? We got Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan all with similar resumes… seeding these 4 teams correctly will go a long way to having a top bracket

- Conf tournaments start this week so as we get mid-major winners they will be bolded, so you know they have locked in a bid

1: Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, Michigan State
2: Duke, UNC, Missouri, Marquette
3: Baylor, Georgetown, Michigan, Ohio State
4: Wisconsin, Louisville, Indiana, Florida
5: Notre Dame, Florida State, Wichita State, Temple
6: UNLV, Murray State, Vanderbilt, Creighton
7: New Mexico, Gonzaga, Purdue, St. Mary’s
8: SDSU, UVA, Memphis, St. Louis
9: Iowa State, Kansas State, Harvard, California
10: Southern Miss, UConn, Alabama, WVU
11: Cincinnati, Long Beach St., BYU, Washington
12: Northwestern, St. Joes, Iona, NC State
13: Miami-South Florida, Seton Hall-Xavier, Middle Tennessee, Oral Roberts
14: Drexel, Belmont, Davidson, Akron
15: Nevada, Weber State, Valpo, Bucknell
16: LIU-Brooklyn, UT-Arlington, NC-Asheville-Stony Brook, Miss Valley St.-Savannah State

Considered: Arizona, Texas, Washington, Dayton, UCF, Illinois, Oregon, Arkansas

Feb 22nd Bracket/Notes

Notes:
- Pac-12 is the 8th rated conference… last year’s 8th rated conference (C-USA) was a 2 bid league and the 2nd bid UAB was very questionable at that
- Georgetown’s seed is prolly a result of their record/computers on the Matrix as opposed to the resume… they better not lose down the stretch if they want to hold onto the 3 seed
- The bubble is horrible this year… I got teams with no top 50 wins that are probably safe in the field… this is pathetic… there are a lot of mid-majors with better wins that won’t get bids because they lost in conference… it’s a shame and a joke… Belmont/Iona/Middle Tennessee are all better than these… if the final at-large’s aren’t 13 seeds it’s a joke… first the 5 shouldn’t have the advantage over the 4, and these teams aren’t good enough to be 12’s…
- A-10 can play their way up to 4 bids, and 2 of those teams could be in white

As of 2/22 Noon (In S-Curve Order)
1 Seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke, Kansas
2 Seeds: Michigan State, Missouri, Ohio State, UNC
3 Seeds: Baylor, Marquette, Michigan, Georgetown
4 seeds: Indiana, Wisconsin, Louisville, Wichita State
5 seeds: Florida, FSU, UNLV, Temple
6 seeds: Notre Dame, Vandy, Murray State, Gonzaga
7 Seeds: SDSU, Creighton, St. Mary’s, New Mexico
8 Seeds: St. Louis, Southern Miss, UVA, Kansas State
9 Seeds: Harvard, Memphis, Cal, Iowa State
10 Seeds: WVU, UConn, BYU, Purdue
11 Seeds: Miss. St., Seton Hall, Alabama, Long Beach State
12 Seeds: Middle Tennessee, Cincinnati, Xavier, Northwestern
13 Seeds: Miami (FL)-Arizona, St. Joes-Washington, Iona, Oral Roberts
14 Seeds: Drexel, Akron, Nevada, Davidson
15 Seeds: Belmont, Weber State, Valpo, Bucknell
16-Seeds LIU-Brooklyn, UT-Arlington Vermont-Savannah State, NC Ashville-Miss Valley State

Week of Feb 13th Bracket- CJ

Notes:

After Team #10 on the curve, I considered 16 teams for the last spots on the 4 line... there is a huge gap in the resumes of the top 10 and everyone else

Putting Washington in the field makes me sick but I refuse to believe the Pac-12 will only get 1 bid (Even if thats all it deserves)

Bubble teams will have to start getting some wins... there are so many of them somone will have to play their way in if only by default

Bracket as of Noon on 2/13
(Teams Seeded in Curve-Order)

1 Seeds:
Kentucky
Syracuse
Missouri
Kansas

2 Seeds:
Ohio State
Duke
Baylor
North Carolina

3 Seeds:
Michigan State
Georgetown
UNLV
Marquette

4 Seeds:
Florida State
Florida
Wisconsin
Indiana

5 Seeds
Michigan
San Diego State
St. Mary's
Wichita State

6 Seeds
Notre Dame
Vanderbilt
Louisville
Temple

7 Seeds
Miss St.
Murray St.
Virginia
West Virginia

8 Seeds
Southern Miss
Iowa State
Gonzaga
Kansas State

9 Seeds
Harvard
Creighton
Memphis
Saint Louis

10 Seeds
Alabama
Uconn
New Mexico
Illinois

11 Seeds
BYU
California
Washington
Seton Hall

12 Seeds
Minnesota
Purdue
Cincy
NC State
Miami FL
Colorado St.

13 Seeds
Middle Tenn St.
Long Beach St.
Oral Roberts
Iona

14 Seeds
Cleveland State
Davidson
Akron
Nevada

15 Seeds
VCU
Belmont
Bucknell
Weber State

16 Seeds
Norfolk State
LIU-Brooklyn
Texas-Arlington
NC-Asheville
Miss Valley State
Stony Brook

Also Considered: Xavier, Northwestern, Texas, Dayton, Arizona, Ole Miss, Arkansas


Leave Comments below... brackets will be weekly til Conference Tournament time

-CJ

January Bracketology- CJ

Bracketology as of 1/20 12 AM CT

(Note no S-Curve posted because teams are in order and not fixed for bracketing purposes, highest ranked team at each seed level on left (so 1,2,3,4 teams are the 1’s and the 2’s will be listed 5, 6, 7, 8)

1 Seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke, Baylor
2 Seeds: Ohio State, Michigan State, Kansas, UNC
3 Seeds: Missouri, Georgetown, UConn, UNLV
4 Seeds: Indiana, Marquette, Michigan, Creighton
5 Seeds: Illinois, Seton Hall, UVA, Vanderbilt,
6 seeds: Murray State, Alabama, Kansas State, Gonzaga
7 seeds: Florida, WVU, SMC, SDSU
8 seeds: Miss St. Wisconsin, Purdue, Wichita State
9 seeds: New Mexico, Louisville, California, Memphis
10 seeds: Temple, Dayton, Stanford, Harvard
11 Seeds: Northwestern, FSU, Cincy, Xavier
12 Seeds: Texas, BYU, Iona, Midde Tenn State
13 Seeds: SLU-Minnesota, USM-Marshall, Long Beach State, Oral Roberts
14 Seeds: Davidson, Cleveland State, Nevada, Belmont
15 Seeds: Akron, George Mason, Weber State, Bucknell,
16 Seeds: Norfolk State, LIU-Brooklyn, Texas-Arlington-Stony Brook, UNC-Asheville-Miss Valley State

Also Considered: Notre Dame, NC State, Iowa State, Northern Iowa


What will change between now and March?

More: Big East
Less: SEC

A-10 will be interesting to see if SLU, Dayton, Temple can all hang onto bids... but Richmond could steal one too

Mid-December Bracket- CJ

Lots of exciting early season basketball and a lot of changes since the preseason... Just a few notes

The A-10 will be here to stay- Xavier won the big games in the non-conf to improve their SOS and RPI numbers, SLU's win vs Washington will look amazing come march, St. Joes is doing well

The Big East is down- ND losing Abro killed their season, Nova is another season away, and there are no bottom dwellers with upside to crack the tourney... BE might be lucky to get 8 bids this year

Kansas will be seeded better in March due to their RPI- ridiculous non-conf will help come seeding in March, Im going to seed them 1 line higher than I think for the whole year cause I will underrate their CPU numbers

With that, the Dec. 15th projections:

1. Cuse, OSU, UK, UNC
2. Duke, Louisville, Xavier, Baylor
3. Marquette, UConn, Kansas, Wisconsin
4. Missouri, Florida, Pitt, Alabama
5. Georgetown, Michigan, Michigan State, UNLV
6. Indiana, Miss St, Saint Louis, Creighton
7. Vanderbilt, Memphis, Illinois, Cal
8. Gonzaga, Purdue, Harvard, Arizona
9. Stanford, FSU, SDSU, Minnesota
10. UVA, Central Florida, Northwestern, Northern Iowa
11. Kansas State, Virginia Tech, Wichita St, Washington
12. West Virginia-St. Joe’s, Cleveland State, Temple, St. Mary’s-BYU
13. Murray State, Iona, Belmont, George Mason
14. Kent State, Long Beach State, Denver, Davidson,
15. New Mexico State, Oakland, Bucknell, Weber State
16. Coastal Carolina, Lamar, Vermont-Norfolk St., Robert Morris-Alabama A&M


Comments as usual appreciated... start looking for weekly updates starting around the new year, with the weekly chat coming back too!

Early Season Tournaments: Do they matter?

As tournament season is underway its time to look at what the NCAA tournament committee did last year (as bad as they did) and see how they valued Early Season Tournaments and the non-conference in general

Old Dominion had wins vs Xavier, Clemson and Richmond in the non-conf in November (as well as losses N-GTown and @ Mizzou) yet come tournament time despite their 27-6 record didn't even get to wear the white jerseys...

Another 9 seed Illinois, only beat 1 NCAA team (Oakland) in non-conference play, but despite their .500 record in conference play somehow was also a 9 seed

This carries down to the bubble as well Georgia didn't beat a NCAA team in the non-conf but going 9-7 in the SEC was good enough but FSU played 4 Top-10 teams and ended up on the same seed line...

Conclusion: If your wearing dark jerseys, don't look at the non-conference

Next Time: Does it matter for white jersey seedS?

Preseason Bracketology-CJ

Well after another spring/summer to digest what went wrong I've got a few things I'm going to note here about last years bracket:

1) It was the worst job by the committee in NCAA history...this has been supported by basketball coaches, players, and analysts... so I'm not going to change my methodology one bit and hope the NCAA comes around

2) I had the right idea for the play-in games: Give teams who have one glaring weakness but pass the eye test to pass the weakness and get into the field: I had Harvard/SMC and they chose UAB/VCU... and I had Colorado as the big conf team with the hole and they chose USC...

3) Late season is overrated... late season is overrated...

4) Winning a conference means something even though it shouldn't...


We'll see if come March I'll listen to myself on these factoids but they should be taken into account.

Now for the Preseason Seed List:

1. North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky, Arizona
2. Ohio State, Pitt, Louisville UConn
3. Syracuse, Florida, Xavier, Temple
4. Vanderbilt, Gonzaga, Purdue, Wisconsin
5. Miami (FL), UNLV, Memphis, Baylor
6. Cincy, Marquette, Kansas, Michigan
7. Wichita State, Virginia Tech, Missouri, Clemson
8. BYU, WVU, Texas, KSU
9. UCLA, New Mexico, Alabama, George Mason
10. Belmont, Washington, Cal, Notre Dame
11. Michigan State, Florida State, Texas A&M, Northwestern
12. Arkansas, Harvard, Southern Cal/SMC, Nova/Illinois
13. St. Johns, Butler, Iona, Bucknell
14. New Mexico St., Davidson, Austin Peay, Long Beach State
15. Akron, UNC-Ashville, South Dakota State, Montana
16. Boston Univesity, Robert Morris, Miss. Valley St./Morgan St., Middle Tenn/UT-San Antonio


Notes after making this bracket on what will be different in March

More Teams: Big East, Big X, Missouri Valley
Less Teams: ACC, SEC, Pac-12

Be back to update this as injuries and transfer news comes out