Monday, February 10, 2020

Better Late Than Never


2/11 Bracket

Been super busy with the new job over at FantasyCruncher.com (check them out if you play or like DFS), but got a couple hours to do the work to get the first Bracket up for the year.

Expect weekly brackets moving forward, and then in early-March as close to daily as I can get.


1 Seeds: Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga, SDSU
2 Seeds: Duke, Louisville, Dayton, Seton Hall
3 Seeds: Maryland, WVU, FSU, Auburn
4 Seeds: Oregon, Butler, Penn State, Villanova
5 Seeds: Michigan State, Kentucky, Creighton, Iowa
6 Seeds: Colorado, Marquette, Arizona, Illinois
7 Seeds: LSU, Ohio State, Houston, BYU
8 Seeds: Rutgers, Wisconsin, Michigan, Purdue
9 Seeds: Texas Tech, URI, Arkansas, USC
10 Seeds: St Mary's, Oklahoma, Wichita State, Xavier
11 Seeds: Indiana, Stanford, Northern Iowa, Florida, Cincinnati
12 Seeds: VCU, East Tennessee State, Yale, Liberty, Notre Dame
13 Seeds: Stephen F. Austin, Vermont, North Texas, New Mexico State
14 Seeds: Colgate, Wright State, Bowling Green, Hofstra
15 Seeds: Winthrop, Arkansas-Little Rock, Murray State, South Dakota State
16 Seeds: UC-Irvine, Montana, Rider, Prairie View A&M, Robert Morris, North Carolina A&T


Notre Dame the hot take and honestly if this were my final bracket I wouldn't put them in but they are closer to the bubble than people think, no bad losses, 4 losses by 3 or less to good teams. They need some wins but have won 5 in a row and get 2 chances for good road wins this week @ UVA and at Duke... steal 1 of those and then you are back in control of destiny.


Updated: 2/12... had URI in twice, added Northern Iowa

Sunday, March 17, 2019

Final Grading

LOL at Belmont over UNC-Greensboro... ridiculous message the committee sent... 1st team out also sickening, if you think they are good then you just put them in... either should be in or not in first 4 out....

A lot of the 1v1 resumes between lines went the wrong way for me which is never fun but part of it

Teams Correct: 65/68 (Missed TCU, Alabama, UNC-G for Belmont, Ohio State and Temple... all teams in my first 4 out)

Correct Seeds: 42/65

Within 1 Seed: 60/65


Total Points: 195 + 126 + 18

Total: 339

Not bad, lost myself 12-15 points late tweaking auto-bid seeds but should be an average year and thats fine when you miss on 3 bubble teams

FINAL 2019 Bracket


1 Seeds: UVA, Duke, UNC, Gonzaga
2 Seeds: Tennessee, Kentucky, Michigan State, Michigan
3 Seeds: Houston, LSU, Florida State, Texas Tech
4 Seeds: Kansas, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Auburn
5 Seeds: Purdue, Virginia Tech, Villanova, Miss State
6 Seeds: Marquette, Iowa State, Maryland, Cincinnati
7 Seeds: Wofford, Buffalo, Nevada, Louisville
8 Seeds: Seton Hall, Central Florida, Utah State, Minnesota
9 Seeds: Iowa, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Baylor
10 Seeds: Syracuse, VCU, Washington, Florida
11 Seeds: St. Mary’s, TCU, St. Johns, UNC-Greensboro, Arizona State, Alabama
12 Seeds: Oregon, Murray State, New Mexico State, Liberty
13 Seeds: UC-Irvine, Vermont, Saint Louis, Old Dominion
14 Seeds: Northeastern, Yale, Georgia State, Montana
15 Seeds: Northern Kentucky, Bradley, Colgate, Gardner-Webb
16 Seeds: Abilene Christian, Iona, North Dakota State, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View A/M, North Carolina Central


Notes:

- All these bubble teams are bad other than UNC-Greensboro... I won't be surprised if Ohio State, Belmont, Indiana, Temple get in and if any of the teams on the 11 line don't get in... The committee had an impossible job, the mid-majors were good this year and the switch to NET from RPI really hurt them

- There is gonna be a wtf team or 2 today... surprise teams that could make it are Texas (really good wins, 17-15 Texas is prolly in but 16-16 looks so much worse), and Creighton... also I guess Furman


- Really looking forward to seeing what the committee cared about this year, if they want wins/ hard scheduling they'll come up with something close to me, if avoiding bad losses is king it will look different...

Thanks everyone for following again this year, will be up shortly after the bracket is released with the grading!

Calm Before the Sunday Storm

Bracket of 5am on 3/17

1 Seeds: Virginia, Duke, UNC, Tennessee
2 Seeds: Gonzaga, Kentucky, Michigan State, Michigan'
3 Seeds: Houston, Florida State, Lsu, Texas Tech
4 Seeds: Kansas, Purdue, Wisconsin, Auburn
5 Seeds: Kansas State, Miss State, Marquette Virginia Tech
6 Seeds: Villanova, Buffalo, Iowa State, Cincinnati
7 Seeds: Maryland, Nevada, Wofford, Louisville
8 Seeds: Iowa, Central Florida, Seton Hall, Minnesota
9 Seeds: Washington, Syracuse, Ole Miss, Utah State
10 Seeds: Baylor, Oklahoma, Florida, TCU
11 Seeds: VCU, Ohio State, Temple, UNC-Greensboro, St. Johns, Oregon
12 Seeds: St. Mary's, Murray State, New Mexico State, Liberty
13 Seeds: UC-Irvine, Northeastern, Vermont, St. Louis
14 Seeds: Old Dominon, Yale, Georgia State, Northern Kentucky
15 Seeds: Montana, Colgate, Bradley, Abilene Christian
16 Seeds: Gardner-Webb, Iona, North Dakota State, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View AM, NC Central



Thoughts:

I don't see how Gonzaga can be a 1 seed, weird to move them down only losing once since mock bracket but UNC/Tennessee just better in every way

I feel oddly good about UNC-Greensboro getting in as the best mid-major bubble team, they challenged themselves and won all the games they should have... no shame in losing to a #2, #3 and a #7 seed as your only losses all year... this feels like a spot committee sends them to Dayton over the worst major bubble team

Every year there is a conference that does better/worse than expected and all year I've called the Pac-12 as that conference... they are lucky Oregon won or I could have easily seen them as a 1 bid league... don't think any wear white opening weekend


If St. Bonaventure beats St. Louis they slide into the St. Louis slot on the 13 line
If Harvard wins they take Yale's spot on the 14 line
If Tx State beats Georgia State, Texas St. goes to the 15 line and Montana becomes a 14 seed


Going to re-look at a bunch of the seed lines tomorrow but feel pretty good about this.

That being said this is first year of the NET era so who knows what the committee does... we are really working without any safety net so things could get wild tomorrow

Thursday, March 14, 2019

Conference Championship Week

Taking into account results up to Ohio State beating Indiana


1. Virginia, Duke, Gonzaga, North Carolina
2. Kentucky, Tennessee, Michigan, LSU
3. Michigan State, Texas Tech, Houston, Purdue
4. Kansas, FSU, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech
5. Kansas State, Marquette, Maryland, Miss State
6. Nevada, Buffalo, Iowa State, UCF
7. Villanova, Auburn, Louisville, Wofford
8. Cincinnati, Washington, Iowa, Baylor
9. Oklahoma, VCU, Syracuse, Ole Miss
10. Texas, Utah State, Minnesota, St. John's
11. Florida, Ohio State, Seton Hall, NC State
12. Arizona State, TCU, Belmont, Murray State, UNC-Greensboro, Temple
13. New Mexico State, Old Dominion, Vermont, UC-Irvine
14. Northeastern, Yale, South Dakota State, Georgia State
15. Northern Kentucky, Radford, Montana, Colgate
16. Bradley, Sam Houston State, Iona, Norfolk State, Prairie View A&M, Farleigh Dickerson

I'm sure I messed up one of the auto-bids but did that part quickly, but wanted to reflect UNC-Greensboro having a nice day with the bubble teams hurting themselves early so far... honestly that resume should be a 10 seed, they lost to teams only wearing white in this tournament but alas i think they are a last four in and Dayton bound for sure if they get in

Saturday, March 9, 2019

One Week Away

Tons of basketball to be played this week, planning on updates Wednesday, Friday, Saturday and then a final one on Sunday... appreciate everyone for the support this year... really hoping for a great bracket to get into the top 10 overall.

1. Virginia, Duke, Gonzaga, Tennessee
2. Kentucky, North Carolina, Michigan, LSU
3. Michigan State, Texas Tech, Houston, Purdue
4. Kansas, FSU, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech
5. Kansas State, Marquette, Maryland, Miss State
6. Nevada, Buffalo, Iowa State, UCF
7. Villanova, Auburn, Louisville, Wofford
8. Cincinnati, Washington, Iowa, Baylor
9. Oklahoma, VCU, Syracuse, Ole Miss
10. Texas, Utah State, Minnesota, St. John's
11. Florida, Ohio State, Seton Hall, NC State
12. Clemson, TCU, Belmont, Lipscomb, Furman, Temple
13. New Mexico State, Hofstra, Vermont, UC-Irvine
14. Old Dominion, Yale, South Dakota State, Texas State
15. Northern Kentucky, Radford, Montana, Colgate
16. Bradley, Sam Houston State, Iona, Norfolk State, Prairie View A&M, St. Francis (PA)

Tuesday, February 26, 2019

It's Almost March!

March is right around the corner so time to fire up another bracket as we approach the end of conference play:

1 Seeds: UVA, Duke, Gonzaga, Kentucky
2 Seeds: Michigan State, UNC, Tennessee, Michigan
3 Seeds: Houston, Marquette, Texas Tech, LSU
4 Seeds: Purdue, Kansas, Wisconsin, Florida State
5 Seeds: Kansas State, Maryland, Nevada, Iowa State
6 Seeds: Virginia Tech, Miss State, Buffalo, Iowa
7 Seeds: Louisville, Cincinnati, Washington, Auburn
8 Seeds: Villanova, Baylor, Texas, Ole Miss
9 Seeds: Oklahoma, Ohio State, St. Johns, Syracuse
10 Seeds: NC State, TCU, VCU, Wofford
11 Seeds: UCF, Florida, Utah State, Temple
12 Seeds: Arizona State, Seton Hall, Minnesota, Alabama, Belmont, Lipscomb
13 Seeds: NM State, Yale, Old Dominion, Vermont
14 Seeds: Hofstra, UC-Irvine, South Dakota State, Montana
15 Seeds: Texas State, Radford, UL-Chicago, Wright State
16 Seeds: Bucknell, Rider, Norfork State, St. Francis PA, Sam Houston State, Prarie View A&M




The hardest part of this bracket (and bracketology this year) is actually the Southern conference, they appear to be 4 deep but none of them actually got non-conf wins to prove it, this conference desperately could have used that old mid-major weekend to prove it belongs on the level of an A-10 this year... I can't give the league 2 bids without any wins... but if the bubble starts weakening, I might change my mind