Monday, March 12, 2018

2018 Results

Well had the right idea with the Pac-12 not being viewed as highly due to the lack of the OOC losses just picked the wrong Pac-12 team (USC vs ASU was close) but the committee got Syracuse vs Notre Dame wrong I can live with that.

WVU as the top 5 from the bottom 3 - tough beat here but part of the Big XII not getting respect without a rep on the committee

Providence as a 7 to a 10 - This is an example of me not realizing the lack of OOC wins for Providence, split vs the elite teams and then best non-conf win was Rider and 0-6 on road vs top 50, def a live and learn spot

Final score (barring me being bad at math)

66/68 in (3 points a piece) = 198
46/68 Exact seeds = 138
64/68 with 1 line = 18

Total score: 354

Sunday, March 11, 2018

The FINAL bracket

First want to apologize to all of you loyal readers, I definitely slacked on the updates this year, lot of it was work related and next year will get back to more regular updates.

The lack of regular season updates definitely has me less confident this year than in past years which is just another sign I gotta dedicate more time next year to this

Looking back at past years and where the committee has differed from consensus it's been by us (bracketologists as a group) overrating a conference because they all beat each other up and got RPI wins/losses vs each other... In the end, applying this idea to a particular conference is going to have me very different than most brackets this year. #Yolo

Note: Andy Katz report that the field is set pending Davidson-URI result confirms to me who the bubble team is but more on that later

1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
2 Seeds: North Carolina, Duke, Cincinnati, Purdue
3 Seeds: Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan,West Virginia
4 Seeds: Texas Tech, Arizona, Auburn, Gonzaga
5 Seeds: Wichita State, Clemson, Kentucky, Ohio State
6 Seeds: Houston, Florida, Arkansas, Miami FL
7 Seeds: TCU, Rhode Island, Texas AM, Providence
8 Seeds: Seton Hall, Nevada, Virginia Tech, Creighton
9 Seeds: Missouri, Butler, Alabama, Kansas State
10 Seeds: Florida State, NC State, Oklahoma, USC
11 Seeds: St. Bonaventure, Texas, Notre Dame, St. Mary's, UCLA, New Mexico State
12 Seeds: Loyola-Chicago, San Diego State, South Dakota State, Buffalo
13 Seeds: Murray State, UNC-Greensboro, College of Charleston, Marshall
14 Seeds: Montana, Bucknell, Wright State, Stephen F. Austin,
15 Seeds: Georgia State, Penn, Lipscomb, UM-Baltimore County
16 Seeds: CS-Fullerton, Iona, Radford, LIU-Brooklyn, Texas Southern, NC Central

Conditions:

If Houston wins the AAC title they move up to the 5 line and Ohio State moves to the 6 line
If Davidson wins the A10 Title, they go to the 12 line, Loyola-Chicago to the 11 line and St. Mary's OUT
If Harvard wins the Ivy, they take Penn's spot on the 15 line
If Texas-Arlington wins the Sun Belt, they take Georgia State's spot on the 15 line



I came into this bubble picture ready to punish the Pac 12 because it didn't have the non-conf wins but when I looked at the committee members and noticed that the Big 12 didn't have a rep on the committee it got interesting for a couple bubble teams but in the end Texas and Oklahoma's resumes were too good to exclude

Notre Dame is the reach here and maybe it's me being too much of a homer but with all the midwest ties on the committee and former ND athletic director Kevin White on the committee I think ND sneaks in and goes to Dayton (where a team that good and it's resume deserves to go).

St. Mary's vs UCLA was really close and changed my mind multiple times on who gets bounced if Davidson wins but in the end St. Mary's just didn't schedule in the non-conf and I think that's the difference 


Wednesday, March 7, 2018

March is HERE!

Been insane year and haven't done enough of these, but we'll have updates all the way through Sunday, and as always can tweet questions to @BBracketologist

1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2 Seeds: Duke, Purdue, North Carolina, Cincinnati
3 Seeds: Auburn, Michigan State, Michigan, Texas Tech
4 Seeds: Tennessee, Wichita State, West Virginia, Arizona
5 Seeds: Gonzaga, Clemson, Ohio State, Kentucky
6 Seeds: Florida, TCU, Miami FL, Texas AM
7 Seeds: Houston, Arkansas Nevada Seton Hall
8 Seeds: Missouri, Creighton, URI, Virginia Tech
9 Seeds: Oklahoma, NC State, Florida State, Butler
10 Seeds: St. Bonaventure, Kansas State, Arizona State, Texas
11 Seeds: UCLA, Providence, Marquette, Alabama, Notre Dame, USC
12 Seeds: Middle Tennesee, Loyola-Chicago, New Mexico State, Buffalo
13 Seeds: South Dakota State, Murray State, Vermont, UL-Lafayette
14 Seeds: College of Charleston, UNC-Greensboro, Montana, Bucknell
15 Seeds: UC-Davis, Wright State, Penn, Lipscomb
16 Seeds: Iona, Radford, Nicholls State, LIU-Brooklyn, Hampton, Arkansas-Pine Bluff


Why Notre Dame?

This team is right there with all the bubble teams but won Maui Invitational (33/35 Maui winners have made the tournament) and then lost preseason ACC player of the year majority of conference year. I think ND's elite wins early in the year combined with beating another tournament team in Virginia Tech is enough to ensure a date in Dayton (ND's resume is exactly why we have the play-in)

Monday, January 8, 2018

First 2018 Bracket

Welcome everyone to the first Bracket of the 2017-2018 NCAAB year, I like to wait til January to do my first bracket so I don't get caught up in early season wins/losses and prejudice myself before having a decent body of work to work with. Brackets will be back on the regular moving forward throughout the college basketball season.

With that here is the first mock bracket of the year

1 Seeds: Duke, Villanova, Michigan State, Xavier
2 Seeds: Oklahoma, Purdue, Arizona State, West Virginia
3 Seeds: UNC, Kansas, TCU, UVA
4 Seeds: Arizona, Wichita State, Texas Tech, Texas A&M
5 Seeds: Seton Hall, Kentucky, Arkansas, Clemson
6 Seeds: Notre Dame, Gonzaga, Miami, Butler
7 Seeds: Cincinnati, Florida State, Tennessee, Auburn
8 Seeds: Creighton. Nevada, Missouri, Michigan
9 Seeds: Florida, Rhode Island, Texas, SMU
10 Seeds: Alabama, Minnesota, UCLA, Syracuse
11 Seeds: St. Bonaventure, Louisville, Ohio State, St. Mary's, Houston, Georgia
12 Seeds: Middle Tennessee, New Mexico State, Missouri State, Belmont
13 Seeds: Vermont, UNC-Greensboro, South Dakota State, Buffalo
14 Seeds: William and Mary, Louisiana-Lafayette, Lipscoomb, Northern Kentucky
15 Seeds : Stephen F. Austin, Montana, Bucknell, UC-Davis
16 Seeds: Canisius, Radford, Penn, Robert Morris, Texas Southern, Morgan State


As always you can hit me up on @BBracketologist on twitter with questions/debate etc.

Sunday, March 12, 2017

Final Results

Really like what the committee did getting the field of 68 right and showing that road wins matter

Final Results

68/68 teams
39/68 teams correct seed
63/68 within 1 line


5 teams I missed (my seed/actual seed)

South Carolina- 9/7 - Committee definitely rated SEC wins more than I thought they would given lack of OOC results

Wisconsin- 5/8 - I don't really get this one at all, honestly was just off on Big X in general, could have overrated tournament wins

Northwestern- 10/8 - this was a team I felt like I had too low and in retrospect should have just moved Big East teams down for lack of OOC and overall conference weakness

Seton Hall- 11/9 - Didn't ding them as much as I thought for just being boring against good competition, underrated that late Butler win maybe

Wichita State- 7/10 - I'm right and the committee is wrong, would do it again

FINAL Bracket (w/Conditions)

FINAL BRACKET

Honestly don't see a lot of line movement happening based on Sunday's games so instead of overreacting to them going to lock this in earlier than usual


1 Seeds: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2 Seeds: Kentucky, Duke, Arizona, Baylor
3 Seeds: Oregon, Louisville, UCLA, Florida State
4 Seeds: Florida, West Virginia, Butler, Notre Dame
5 Seeds: Purdue, Virginia, Cinncinnati, Wisconsin
6 Seeds : Minnesota, SMU, Iowa State, Michigan
7 Seeds: Creighton, Saint Mary's, Maryland, Wichita State
8 Seeds: Miami FL, Dayton, Arkansas, Virginia Tech
9 Seeds: South Carolina, Oklahoma State, VCU, Michigan State
10 Seeds: Northwestern, Marquette, Xavier, Vanderbilt
11 Seeds: Wake Forest, Kansas State, Seton Hall, Middle Tennessee, Rhode Island
12 Seeds: Providence, USC, Nevada, UNC-Wilmington, Princeton
13 Seeds: Bucknell, East Tennessee State, Vermont, Winthrop
14 Seeds: New Mexico State, Florida Gulf Coast, Iona, Northern Kentucky
15 Seeds: Kent State, Texas Southern, North Dakota, Jacksonville State
16 Seeds: Texas State- San Marcos, South Dakota State, North Carolina Central, New Orleans, Mount St. Mary's, UC-Davis


Conditions

If Yale wins the Ivy, Bucknell moves from 13 seed to 12 Seed and Yale slides into the 13 line
If Troy wins the Sun Belt, they take the spot of Texas State- San Marcos

Saturday, March 11, 2017

Night Before Bracket

Hey everyone just a few more games left and at this point history has shown us the committee doesn't do much with these late games in terms of seeding.

Filing a night before bracket but going to go through the resumes one more time tonight before coming up with the final bracket in the morning

As always fire up your questions on twitter to @BBracketologist and I'll answer them throughout the day!

1 Seeds: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2 Seeds: Kentucky, Oregon, Duke, Louisville
3 Seeds: Arizona, Baylor, UCLA, West Virginia
4 Seeds: Florida State, Florida, Butler, Notre Dame
5 Seeds: Purdue, Virginia, Cincinnati, Minnesota
6 Seeds: SMU, Iowa State, Creighton, Wisconsin
7 Seeds: Maryland, Michigan, Miami, Wichita State
8 Seeds: Saint Mary's, South Carolina, Dayton, Northwestern
9 Seeds: Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, VCU
10 Seeds: Seton Hall, Michigan State, Xavier, Wake Forest
11 Seeds: Providence, Vanderbilt, Marquette, Middle Tennesee, USC
12 Seeds: Kansas State, Rhode Island, Nevada, NC-Wilmington, Texas-Arlington
13 Seeds: Vermont, Princeton, East Tenn State, Akron
14 Seeds: Bucknell, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, CSU-Bakersfield
15 Seeds: Iona, Northern Kentucky, UC-Irvine, Texas Southern
16 Seeds: North Dakota, South Dakota State, Jacksonville State, North Carolina Central, New Orleans, Mount St. Mary's