Busting Bracketologists

Feb 22nd Bracket/Notes

2012-02-22T11:22:00.001-08:00

Notes:
- Pac-12 is the 8th rated conference… last year’s 8th rated conference (C-USA) was a 2 bid league and the 2nd bid UAB was very questionable at that
- Georgetown’s seed is prolly a result of their record/computers on the Matrix as opposed to the resume… they better not lose down the stretch if they want to hold onto the 3 seed
- The bubble is horrible this year… I got teams with no top 50 wins that are probably safe in the field… this is pathetic… there are a lot of mid-majors with better wins that won’t get bids because they lost in conference… it’s a shame and a joke… Belmont/Iona/Middle Tennessee are all better than these… if the final at-large’s aren’t 13 seeds it’s a joke… first the 5 shouldn’t have the advantage over the 4, and these teams aren’t good enough to be 12’s…
- A-10 can play their way up to 4 bids, and 2 of those teams could be in white

As of 2/22 Noon (In S-Curve Order)
1 Seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke, Kansas
2 Seeds: Michigan State, Missouri, Ohio State, UNC
3 Seeds: Baylor, Marquette, Michigan, Georgetown
4 seeds: Indiana, Wisconsin, Louisville, Wichita State
5 seeds: Florida, FSU, UNLV, Temple
6 seeds: Notre Dame, Vandy, Murray State, Gonzaga
7 Seeds: SDSU, Creighton, St. Mary’s, New Mexico
8 Seeds: St. Louis, Southern Miss, UVA, Kansas State
9 Seeds: Harvard, Memphis, Cal, Iowa State
10 Seeds: WVU, UConn, BYU, Purdue
11 Seeds: Miss. St., Seton Hall, Alabama, Long Beach State
12 Seeds: Middle Tennessee, Cincinnati, Xavier, Northwestern
13 Seeds: Miami (FL)-Arizona, St. Joes-Washington, Iona, Oral Roberts
14 Seeds: Drexel, Akron, Nevada, Davidson
15 Seeds: Belmont, Weber State, Valpo, Bucknell
16-Seeds LIU-Brooklyn, UT-Arlington Vermont-Savannah State, NC Ashville-Miss Valley State

Week of Feb 13th Bracket- CJ

2012-02-13T10:53:00.001-08:00

Notes:

After Team #10 on the curve, I considered 16 teams for the last spots on the 4 line... there is a huge gap in the resumes of the top 10 and everyone else

Putting Washington in the field makes me sick but I refuse to believe the Pac-12 will only get 1 bid (Even if thats all it deserves)

Bubble teams will have to start getting some wins... there are so many of them somone will have to play their way in if only by default

Bracket as of Noon on 2/13
(Teams Seeded in Curve-Order)

1 Seeds:
Kentucky
Syracuse
Missouri
Kansas

2 Seeds:
Ohio State
Duke
Baylor
North Carolina

3 Seeds:
Michigan State
Georgetown
UNLV
Marquette

4 Seeds:
Florida State
Florida
Wisconsin
Indiana

5 Seeds
Michigan
San Diego State
St. Mary's
Wichita State

6 Seeds
Notre Dame
Vanderbilt
Louisville
Temple

7 Seeds
Miss St.
Murray St.
Virginia
West Virginia

8 Seeds
Southern Miss
Iowa State
Gonzaga
Kansas State

9 Seeds
Harvard
Creighton
Memphis
Saint Louis

10 Seeds
Alabama
Uconn
New Mexico
Illinois

11 Seeds
BYU
California
Washington
Seton Hall

12 Seeds
Minnesota
Purdue
Cincy
NC State
Miami FL
Colorado St.

13 Seeds
Middle Tenn St.
Long Beach St.
Oral Roberts
Iona

14 Seeds
Cleveland State
Davidson
Akron
Nevada

15 Seeds
VCU
Belmont
Bucknell
Weber State

16 Seeds
Norfolk State
LIU-Brooklyn
Texas-Arlington
NC-Asheville
Miss Valley State
Stony Brook

Also Considered: Xavier, Northwestern, Texas, Dayton, Arizona, Ole Miss, Arkansas

Leave Comments below... brackets will be weekly til Conference Tournament time

-CJ

January Bracketology- CJ

2012-01-19T20:12:00.000-08:00

Bracketology as of 1/20 12 AM CT

(Note no S-Curve posted because teams are in order and not fixed for bracketing purposes, highest ranked team at each seed level on left (so 1,2,3,4 teams are the 1’s and the 2’s will be listed 5, 6, 7, 8)

1 Seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke, Baylor
2 Seeds: Ohio State, Michigan State, Kansas, UNC
3 Seeds: Missouri, Georgetown, UConn, UNLV
4 Seeds: Indiana, Marquette, Michigan, Creighton
5 Seeds: Illinois, Seton Hall, UVA, Vanderbilt,
6 seeds: Murray State, Alabama, Kansas State, Gonzaga
7 seeds: Florida, WVU, SMC, SDSU
8 seeds: Miss St. Wisconsin, Purdue, Wichita State
9 seeds: New Mexico, Louisville, California, Memphis
10 seeds: Temple, Dayton, Stanford, Harvard
11 Seeds: Northwestern, FSU, Cincy, Xavier
12 Seeds: Texas, BYU, Iona, Midde Tenn State
13 Seeds: SLU-Minnesota, USM-Marshall, Long Beach State, Oral Roberts
14 Seeds: Davidson, Cleveland State, Nevada, Belmont
15 Seeds: Akron, George Mason, Weber State, Bucknell,
16 Seeds: Norfolk State, LIU-Brooklyn, Texas-Arlington-Stony Brook, UNC-Asheville-Miss Valley State

Also Considered: Notre Dame, NC State, Iowa State, Northern Iowa

What will change between now and March?

More: Big East
Less: SEC

A-10 will be interesting to see if SLU, Dayton, Temple can all hang onto bids... but Richmond could steal one too

Mid-December Bracket- CJ

2011-12-14T22:54:00.000-08:00

Lots of exciting early season basketball and a lot of changes since the preseason... Just a few notes

The A-10 will be here to stay- Xavier won the big games in the non-conf to improve their SOS and RPI numbers, SLU's win vs Washington will look amazing come march, St. Joes is doing well

The Big East is down- ND losing Abro killed their season, Nova is another season away, and there are no bottom dwellers with upside to crack the tourney... BE might be lucky to get 8 bids this year

Kansas will be seeded better in March due to their RPI- ridiculous non-conf will help come seeding in March, Im going to seed them 1 line higher than I think for the whole year cause I will underrate their CPU numbers

With that, the Dec. 15th projections:

1. Cuse, OSU, UK, UNC
2. Duke, Louisville, Xavier, Baylor
3. Marquette, UConn, Kansas, Wisconsin
4. Missouri, Florida, Pitt, Alabama
5. Georgetown, Michigan, Michigan State, UNLV
6. Indiana, Miss St, Saint Louis, Creighton
7. Vanderbilt, Memphis, Illinois, Cal
8. Gonzaga, Purdue, Harvard, Arizona
9. Stanford, FSU, SDSU, Minnesota
10. UVA, Central Florida, Northwestern, Northern Iowa
11. Kansas State, Virginia Tech, Wichita St, Washington
12. West Virginia-St. Joe’s, Cleveland State, Temple, St. Mary’s-BYU
13. Murray State, Iona, Belmont, George Mason
14. Kent State, Long Beach State, Denver, Davidson,
15. New Mexico State, Oakland, Bucknell, Weber State
16. Coastal Carolina, Lamar, Vermont-Norfolk St., Robert Morris-Alabama A&M

Comments as usual appreciated... start looking for weekly updates starting around the new year, with the weekly chat coming back too!

Early Season Tournaments: Do they matter?

2011-11-18T12:12:00.000-08:00

As tournament season is underway its time to look at what the NCAA tournament committee did last year (as bad as they did) and see how they valued Early Season Tournaments and the non-conference in general

Old Dominion had wins vs Xavier, Clemson and Richmond in the non-conf in November (as well as losses N-GTown and @ Mizzou) yet come tournament time despite their 27-6 record didn't even get to wear the white jerseys...

Another 9 seed Illinois, only beat 1 NCAA team (Oakland) in non-conference play, but despite their .500 record in conference play somehow was also a 9 seed

This carries down to the bubble as well Georgia didn't beat a NCAA team in the non-conf but going 9-7 in the SEC was good enough but FSU played 4 Top-10 teams and ended up on the same seed line...

Conclusion: If your wearing dark jerseys, don't look at the non-conference

Next Time: Does it matter for white jersey seedS?

Preseason Bracketology-CJ

2011-09-19T11:02:00.000-07:00

Well after another spring/summer to digest what went wrong I've got a few things I'm going to note here about last years bracket:

1) It was the worst job by the committee in NCAA history...this has been supported by basketball coaches, players, and analysts... so I'm not going to change my methodology one bit and hope the NCAA comes around

2) I had the right idea for the play-in games: Give teams who have one glaring weakness but pass the eye test to pass the weakness and get into the field: I had Harvard/SMC and they chose UAB/VCU... and I had Colorado as the big conf team with the hole and they chose USC...

3) Late season is overrated... late season is overrated...

4) Winning a conference means something even though it shouldn't...

We'll see if come March I'll listen to myself on these factoids but they should be taken into account.

Now for the Preseason Seed List:

1. North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky, Arizona
2. Ohio State, Pitt, Louisville UConn
3. Syracuse, Florida, Xavier, Temple
4. Vanderbilt, Gonzaga, Purdue, Wisconsin
5. Miami (FL), UNLV, Memphis, Baylor
6. Cincy, Marquette, Kansas, Michigan
7. Wichita State, Virginia Tech, Missouri, Clemson
8. BYU, WVU, Texas, KSU
9. UCLA, New Mexico, Alabama, George Mason
10. Belmont, Washington, Cal, Notre Dame
11. Michigan State, Florida State, Texas A&M, Northwestern
12. Arkansas, Harvard, Southern Cal/SMC, Nova/Illinois
13. St. Johns, Butler, Iona, Bucknell
14. New Mexico St., Davidson, Austin Peay, Long Beach State
15. Akron, UNC-Ashville, South Dakota State, Montana
16. Boston Univesity, Robert Morris, Miss. Valley St./Morgan St., Middle Tenn/UT-San Antonio

Notes after making this bracket on what will be different in March

More Teams: Big East, Big X, Missouri Valley
Less Teams: ACC, SEC, Pac-12

Be back to update this as injuries and transfer news comes out

CJ's Seed List- FINAL

2011-03-13T14:06:00.000-07:00

1 Ohio St, Kansas, Notre Dame, Pitt
2 Duke, North Carolina, Texas, BYU
3 UConn, Syracuse, Florida, SDSU
4 Purdue, Louisville, Wisconsin, Kentucky
5 St. John's, Vandy, WVU, Kansas St.
6 ODU, Georgetown, Cincy, Arizona
7 Xavier, Texas A&M, Utah St., George Mason
8 UNLV, Missouri, UCLA, Temple
9 Richmond, Washington, Michigan State, Tennessee
10 Villanova, Marquette, Illinois, Colorado
11 Gonzaga, Butler, Michigan, Virginia Tech
12 Penn State, Florida State-SMC, Memphis, Georgia-Harvard
13 Belmont, Oakland, Princeton, Indiana St
14 Morehead St, Bucknell, St. Peter's, Akron
15 Long Island, Northern Colorado, Wofford, UC-Santa Barbara
16 Boston University,NC-Asheville, Hampton/Alabama St, UA-Little Rock/UTSA

Bryce's Seed List - Final

2011-03-13T12:06:00.000-07:00

1. Ohio St., Kansas, Notre Dame, Pitt
2. Duke, UNC, Texas, Syracuse
3. Connecticut, BYU, SDSU,Florida
4. Kentucky, Purdue, Louisville, Wisconsin
5. St. John's, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Kansas St.
6. Georgetown, Old Dominion, Cincinnati, Xavier
7. Arizona, Texas A&M, Utah St, UNLV
8. George Mason, Tennessee, UCLA, Temple
9. Richmond, Washington, Michigan St, Missouri
10. Villanova, Marquette, Colorado, Michigan
11. Illinois, Memphis, Gonzaga, Penn State
12. Va Tech, Butler, Harvard vs. Florida St, Georgia vs. BC
13. Belmont, Princeton, Oakland, Indiana St
14. Long Island, Morehead St, Bucknell, St. Peter's
15. Northern Colorado, Wofford, Akron, UCSB
16. UNC-A, Boston U, Hampton vs. Alabama St, UA-LR, UT-SA

First Four out: SMC, Alabama, Clemson, USC

NCAA Tournament 2011 Predicted Bracket

Edit: Sorry for the late edit, swapped UCSB and BU

Selection Sunday Chat

2011-03-13T09:54:00.000-07:00

Busting Bracketologists Selection Sunday Chat!!!

Where I'm starting Today-CJ

2011-03-13T09:40:00.000-07:00

1 Ohio St, Kansas, Notre Dame, Pitt
2 Duke, North Carolina, Texas, BYU
3 UConn, Syracuse, Florida, SDSU
4 Purdue, Louisville, Wisconsin, Kentucky
5 St. John's, Vandy, WVU, Kansas St.
6 ODU, Georgetown, Cincy, Xavier
7 Arizona, Texas A&M, Utah St., UNLV
8 George Mason, Tennessee, UCLA, Temple
9 Richmond, Washington, Michigan State, Missouri
10 Villanova, Marquette, Illinois, Colorado
11 Florida St, Gonzaga, Butler, Michigan
12 Virginia Tech, Penn State-Georgia, Memphis, Belmont
13 Harvard-Clemson, Oakland, Princeton, Indiana St
14 Long Island, Morehead St, Bucknell, St. Peter's
15 Northern Colorado, Wofford, Boston University, Akron
16 UCSB, UNCA, Hampton/Alabama St, UA-Little Rock/UTSA

21.5 hours to Selection Sunday

2011-03-12T18:39:00.001-08:00

Here's how I see things shaking out:

1 Ohio St, Kansas, Notre Dame, Pitt
2 Duke, North Carolina, Texas, Syracuse
3 BYU, Uconn, Purdue, Florida
4 SDSU, Louisville, Wisconsin, Kentucky
5 St. John's, Vandy, WVU, Kansas St.
6 G'town, ODU, Cincy, Xavier
7 Arizona, Texas A&M, Utah St., UNLV
8 George Mason, Tennessee, UCLA, Temple
9 Richmond, Washington, Villanova, Missouri
10 Michigan St, Marquette, Illinois, Butler
11 Florida St, Colorado, Gonzaga, Va Tech
12 Michigan, Penn State, Harvard-Clemson, Memphis, Belmont
13 St. Mary's-BC, Oakland, Princeton, Indiana St
14 Long Island, Morehead St, Bucknell, Long Beach St
15 St. Peters, Northern Colorado, Wofford, Akron
16 Boston U, UNCA, Hampton/Alabama St, UA-Little Rock/UTSA

First Four Out: Alabama, Georgia, USC, Princeton
Next Four Out: UAB, Washington St, Nebraska, VCU

EDIT: Yes, Princeton in the first four out is a joke. I was tired, and didn't feel like thinking about it.

Saturday Live NCAA Bracketology Chat

2011-03-12T08:01:00.000-08:00

Busting Bracketologists Saturday Live Bracketology Chat

CJ's Seed List (Through 3/12 at 2:37AM)

2011-03-11T23:38:00.001-08:00

As of 3/12/11 2:37 AM

1: Ohio State, Kansas, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh
2: Duke, UNC, BYU, Texas
3: Cuse, Purdue, Florida, UConn
4: SDSU, UL, Wisconsin, Kentucky
5: St. Johns, WVU, Vanderbilt, Kansas State
6: Old Dominion, Arizona, Georgetown, Cincinnati
7: George Mason, Utah State, Xavier, Texas A&M
8: UCLA, UNLV, Tenn, Missouri
9: Temple, Illinois, Washington, Richmond
10: Colorado, Gonzaga, Florida State, Villanova
11: Michigan State, Marquette, Butler, Michigan
12: Clemson, Virginia Tech/Saint Mary’s, BC/Bama, Harvard
13: UTEP, Belmont, Oakland, Indiana State
14: Bucknell, Kent State, Morehead State, Wofford
15: LIU, Long Beach State, St. Peter’s, Northern Colorado,
16: Boston University, Hampton, NC-Asheville/Grambling State, McNeese State, Arkansas-Little Rock

First Four Out: Georgia, Penn State, USC, UAB
Next Four Out: Princeton, Missouri State, Memphis, VCU

Bryce's Seed List

2011-03-11T23:37:00.000-08:00

2:38 AM, March 12, 2011

1. Ohio St, Kansas, Notre Dame, Pitt
2. Duke, Texas, BYU, North Carolina
3. Syracuse, Purdue, Connecticut, San Diego St
4. Florida, Louisville, Wisconsin, Kentucky
5. Vanderbilt, St. John's, Kansas St, West Virginia
6. Old Dominion, Arizona, Cincinnati, Georgetown
7. Xavier, UNLV, Utah St, Texas A&M
8. George Mason, Temple, UCLA, Illinois
9. Villanova, Tennessee, Missouri, Washington
10. Richmond, Michigan St, Marquette, Florida St.
11. Colorado, Virginia Tech, Butler, Gonzaga
12. Harvard, Michigan, St. Mary's, BC, Belmont
13. UTEP, Clemson, Penn St., Oakland, Kent St
14. LIU, Morehead St, Indiana St, Bucknell
15. Long Beach St, St. Peters, N. Colorado, Wofford
16. Boston, UNC-A, Mcneese St, Hampton, UA-Little Rock, Grambling St.

First Four Out: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma St, USC
Next Four Out: UAB, Princeton, Wazzu, VCU

CJ's Seed List (Through 3/12 at 6pm)

2011-03-11T15:07:00.000-08:00

CJ’s S-Curve List (Through last at-large)
1- Ohio State
2- Kansas
3- Notre Dame
4- Pitt

5- Duke
6- BYU
7- Texas
8- UNC

9- Purdue
10- Syracuse
11- Wisconsin
12- SDSU

13- UConn
14- Louisville
15- Florida
16- St. John’s

17- Vanderbilt
18- West Virginia
19- Kentucky
20- Kansas State

21- Georgetown
22- Arizona
23- Xavier
24- George Mason

25- Texas A&M
26- Cincy
27- Temple
28- Utah St.

29- UNLV
30- Missouri
31- Old Dominion
32- UCLA

33- Washington
34- Florida St.
35- Tennessee
36- Gonzaga

37-Marquette
38- Villanova
39- Butler
40- Colorado

41- Michigan
42- Clemson
43-Richmond
44- Illinois

45- Boston College
46- Michigan State
47- Saint Mary’s
48- Alabama
49- Virginia Tech

Bryce's Seedlist - 11:38 AM, March 11

2011-03-11T08:37:00.000-08:00

Selection Sunday is but mere days away. The committee has probably already starting seeding the field, even though Duke and Ohio State have yet to play their first tournament game. Here is how I see the field shaping up. In this seed list, teams are in order in their lines.

1. Kansas, Ohio St, Notre Dame, Pitt
2. Duke, Syracuse, North Carolina, Texas
3. Purdue, BYU, San Diego St, Wisconsin
4. Florida, Connecticut, Kentucky, Louisville
5. St. John's, Arizona, Vanderbilt, Kansas St.
6. Georgetown, West Virginia, Old Dominion, Texas A&M
7. UNLV, Cincinnati, Xavier, Utah St
8. Temple, George Mason, UCLA, Tennessee
9. Villanova, Missouri, Illinois, Florida St
10. Washington, Richmond, Butler, Marquette
11. Georgia, Colorado, Gonzaga, Boston College
12. Va Tech, St. Mary's, Michigan, Memphis, Harvard
13. Michigan St, Clemson, Oakland, Belmont, Kent St.
14. LIU, Morehead St, Indiana St, Bucknell
15. LBSU, St. Peters, N. Colorado, Wofford
16. Boston U, UNC-A, Mcneese St, Hampton, Texas Southern, UA-LR

First Four Out: Oklahoma St, USC, UAB, Penn State
Next Four Out: Alabama, Washington, VCU, Nebraska

2nd Ballot- Consideration List

2011-03-09T12:57:00.000-08:00

Considered List
Alabama
Baylor
BC
Clemson
Colorado
Colorado St. (Just Bryce)
Florida St.
Georgia
Harvard
Illinois (Just CJ)
Marquette
Maryland (Just Bryce)
Memphis
Michigan
Michigan St.
Minnesota
Missouri State (Just CJ)
Nebraska
Oklahoma St.
Penn St.
Princeton (Just CJ)
Saint Mary’s
Tennessee (Just CJ)
Richmond
UAB
UNM (Just Bryce)
USC
UTEP
Va Tech
VCU
Villanova (Just Bryce)
Washington
Washington St.

Initial Ballot - CJ and Bryce

2011-03-09T12:46:00.000-08:00

On Both Ballots
Arizona
BYU
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Duke
Florida
George Mason
Georgetown
Kansas
Kansas St.
Kentucky
Louisville
Missouri
North Carolina
Notre Dame
Ohio St.
Pitt
Purdue
SDSU
St. John's
Syracuse
Temple
Texas
Texas A&M
UCLA
UNLV
Utah St.
Vanderbilt
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Xavier

On CJ's Ballot only
Florida St.
Villanova

On Bryce's Ballot only
Illinois
Tennessee

Bryce's Note: So, I think Nova is a lock. However, I can imagine committee members seeing the continuation of their collapse last night, and deciding that they need to be looked at before getting locked into the field.

Automatic Bids
Belmont - Atlantic Sun
Butler - Horizon
Gonzaga - WCC
Indiana St - MVC
Morehead St - OVC
Oakland - Summit
Old Dominion - CAA
St. Peter's - MAAC
UA-Little Rock - Sun Belt
UNC-Asheville - Big South
Wofford - SoCon

Initial Ballot

2011-03-09T12:22:00.000-08:00

The committee began their deliberations at noon today in Indianapolis, 3.5 hours ago. So, what are they doing right now? The first step in the selection process is the initial balloting. Each committee member submits two ballots. The first ballot is a list of all teams that should definitely be in the tournament, no matter what. This ballot has a maximum of 37 teams. Any team that receives at least all but 2 of the eligible votes is put into the tournament. The second ballot is a list of all teams that ought to be considered for the tournament.

CJ and I will each come up with our own ballots, and post them here sometime before 5.

Selection Committee Begins Meeting Today

2011-03-09T10:01:00.000-08:00

Today is the day when the assorted members of the Selection Committee begin meeting. In the past, conferences and teams with a representative on the committee have generally seen a slight bump in seeding (unless you're the Mountain West), so it is worthwhile at this time to see who might benefit from this bump. (Information found on Bracketography - a site worth checking out).

Side Note: Committee members are required to leave the room whenever their team is part of a vote, so this bias does not occur directly. Instead, I believe it happens when each committee member feels that the absence of that member will lead to a bias against the team in question, and thus gives them a little extra credit when voting. Additionally, it is unclear to me whether committee members leave the room only for the school they currently have ties to, or any school that they have ever had ties to. This question has major ramifications for Notre Dame, who has THREE alums on the committee. I assume that schools in the same conference don't force a committee member to leave - otherwise, Hathaway (the UConn AD), won't be doing very much this week.

#1 - Gene Smith, AD, Ohio State. This year's committee chair managed to get a small bump for every non-Purdue Big 10 team last year - especially his own Buckeyes. If you don't think the Buckeyes are getting the #1 overall, you should consider this information. None of Smith's previous AD stops have a chance of reaching the tournament, but it is worth noting that he won a football national championship with Notre Dame.

#2 - Stanley Morrison, AD, UC-Riverside. Might make a difference on the 14-15 line, but doubtful. Also played for Cal, and coached at Southern Cal. I've seen no bumps based on previous stops, so I really don't think the Trojans are going to benefit.

#3 - Jeffrey Hathaway, AD, Connecticut. Expect to see UConn a line or two above where you might expect them, in deference to this man who leads the athletic department at one of the premier basketball schools in the country. He attended Maryland, which may get them some consideration, but there is probably no love there after Maryland took his head football coach this past winter.

#4 - Lynn Hickey, AD, UT-SA. The second woman ever on this committee. Her conference representative won't be her team, and seems destined for one of the play-in games. Nothing to see here.

#5 - Mike Bobinski, AD, Xavier. Over the past two years, I've missed on Xavier by a line too low. It probably is no coincidence that their AD happens to be on the selection committee. This bump has not appeared to carry over to the other A-10 teams, although his alma mater, Notre Dame, may have been the recipient of some bias last year, when they were criminally overseeded on the 6 line. He has previously worked at Akron and Navy, neither of which should be a factor this year.

#6 - Dan Beebe, Big 12 Commissioner. This is Beebe's second year on the committee, and this man is probably the most well know man on it. After successfully holding together the Big 12, he is in prime position to make the tournament paths of those teams just a bit easier. Will the football expansion fallout transfer over to Colorado and Nebraska, who will be leaving the conference at the end of this academic year? Since he's not actually allowed to vote on

#7 - Doug Fullerton, Big Sky Commissioner - Small conference commissioner. Might impact the bottom lines. I kind of doubt it..

#8 - Ron Wellman, AD, Wake Forest - While Wake Forest is nowhere near the tournament, this positions the ACC to perhaps get a little better positioning. In his second year on the committee, I can't imagine him being a major player.

#9 - Scott Barnes, AD, Utah State - This is a big one. One member of the committee will be out of the room for the discussion of one of the bigger seeding questions of this year's tournament - how do we deal with Utah State's gaudy record - and lack of big wins. How will the other committee members react? It'll be interesting to see if Utah St. gets any seeding bump. I also wonder if his presence on the committee could help St. Mary's, Utah State's signature win.

#10 - Steve Orsini, AD, Southern Methodist - Obviously, Southern Methodist is nowhere near the bracket. One question of interest, however, is whether this could help fellow C-USA members UAB, Memphis, or UTEP. While Memphis and UTEP probably need the auto-bid, UAB is definitely in the discussion to receive one of the last at-large slots. Also of note - Orsini is the third Notre Dame alum on the committee, having played on the 1977 football championship team.

Bryce - One Week to Selection Sunday

2011-03-06T10:32:00.001-08:00

EDIT: I altered this from my earlier seed list to reflect VCU's victory over George Mason

At this point, it is close enough to Selection Sunday that I feel comfortable doing my seed list as if today were Selection Sunday.

1. Kansas, Ohio St, Pitt, Notre Dame
2. North Carolina, Duke, BYU, Texas
3. Purdue, San Diego St, Florida, Syracuse
4. Wisconsin, Kentucky, St. John's, Louisville
5. Connecticut, Arizona, Vanderbilt, Kansas St.
6. Cincinnati, Georgetown, WVU, Texas A&M
7. UCLA, Old Dominion, Xavier, UNLV
8. Villanova, Temple, Utah St, Tennessee
9. George Mason, Missouri, Florida St, Illinois
10. Washington, Marquette, Colorado, Georgia
11. Nebraska, Memphis, Gonzaga, Richmond
12. Va Tech, Michigan, VCU, BC, Michigan St, Butler
13. Harvard, Belmont, Oakland

First Four Out: Oklahoma St, Alabama, Clemson, UAB
Next Four Out: Colorado St, New Mexico, Baylor, St. Mary's

CJ's Seed List (Through 3/5/2011)

2011-03-05T19:00:00.000-08:00

CJ’s S-Curve List
1- Ohio State
2- Kansas
3- Pitt
4- Notre Dame

5- Duke
6- BYU
7- Texas
8- Wisconsin

9- Purdue
10- SDSU
11- Syracuse
12- UNC

13- Florida
14- Louisville
15- St. Johns
16- Vanderbilt

17- UConn
18- West Virginia
19- Kentucky
20- Kansas State

21- Georgetown
22- Arizona
23- Xavier
24- George Mason

25- Texas A&M
26- Villanova
27- Temple
28- Cincy

29- Utah St.
30- UNLV
31- Missouri
32- Old Dominion

33- UCLA
34- Washington
35- Florida St.
36- Tennessee

37- Gonzaga
38- St. Mary’s
39- Butler
40- Michigan

41- Marquette
42- Richmond
43- Virginia Tech
44- Illinois

45- Boston College
46- Michigan State
47- Clemson
48- Georgia
49- Memphis
50- Belmont

51- Missouri State
52- Oakland
53- Princeton
54- Bucknell

55- Fairfield
56- Charleston
57- Vermont
58- Long Island

59- Kent State
60- Milwaukee
61- Long Beach
62- UNC-Ashville

63- Murray State
64- Florida Atlantic
65- Northern Colorado
66- Texas Southern
67- McNeese State
68- Bethune Cookman

Bryce Seed List through February 27

2011-02-27T15:29:00.000-08:00

Sorry it has been a while. Assumes Wisconsin, UNC, and Washington win tonight. Remember, I do mine as a projection through the end of the year.

1. Ohio St, Pitt, Kansas, BYU
2. Texas, Notre Dame, Duke, Purdue
3. SDSU, Syracuse, Wisconsin, North Carolina
4. Arizona, Florida, Kentucky, St. John's
5. Connecticut, Louisville, Missouri, Vanderbilt
6. Georgetown, Cincinnati, Texas A&M, Villanova
7. Temple, Old Dominion, WVU, Utah St
8. Washington, UNLV, UCLA, Xavier
9. George Mason, St. Mary's, Florida St, Richmond
10. Tennessee, Illinois, Virginia Tech, Kansas St
11. Marquette, Nebraska, Memphis, Gonzaga
12. Belmont, Michigan St, Oklahoma St, Clemson, Minnesota, VCU
13. Butler, Oakland, Wichita St, Harvard
14. Charleston, LBSU, Montana, Fairfield
15. Kent St, Bucknell, Vermont, Coastal Carolina
16. Long Island, Florida Atlantic, Murray St, Mcneese St, Hampton, Texas Southern

First four out: Georgia, Boston College, UAB, Maryland
Next four out: Michigan, Washington St, Mississippi, Drexel

New In: Nebraska, Gonzaga, Michigan St, VCU
New Out: Georgia, Colorado St, Washington St, Boston College

Moving Up: St. John's (5), UCLA (4), BYU, Arizona, Cincy, UNLV, GMU, VT, Kansas St (2)
Moving Down: Minnesota (5), Georgetown, Tennessee (3), Villanova, West Virginia, St. Mary's, Marquette, Clemson (2)

Big East: 11
Big 12: 7
Big 10: 6
ACC: 5
SEC: 4
Pac-10: 3
MWC: 3
A-10: 3
CAA: 3
WCC:2

Who's going to win the last spot on the...

2011-02-21T18:43:00.000-08:00

1 Line- (Current Contenders: Duke, Kansas, SDSU/BYU)

With the rough weekend for the teams fighting to be the Big East #2 to fight for the 1 seed, for now we can take all of those guys off the contender list. Duke, while having the worst wins out of conference, has destroyed the medicore ACC and has looked pretty convincing in doing so. Their weakness shows however with the road destruction by St. Johns.

Kansas, who I project to finish 2nd in the Big X who has played pretty well, and had the best loss of all the contenders losing at Kansas State. However, if they don't win their conference I don't know if they will be able to argue that the Big 12 #2 is better than the ACC #1.

SDSU/BYU- Crushing all Mountain West conference competition, with the expected BYU loss at SDSU coming up it will be tough for one of these teams to make the climb.

VERDICT: It will be tough for Duke if ranked the #1 team in America to not get the 1 seed, but an ACC loss opens the door for a lot of teams... Pick: Duke

Tomorrow:

I will evaluate the battle for the last 2,3 and 4 seed!

Bearkats, Tigers, and Spartans

2011-02-14T13:32:00.001-08:00

So, looking around at a couple of teams that other people disagree with me on.

Cincinnati - Currently 19-6, 6-6 in the Big East, Wins over XU and at St. John's. With their current resume, it is almost unthinkable to me that 64/65 brackets over at the Bracket Matrix have them in. I mean, its a crappy resume, and most of those brackets are "as of now" projections. However, I foresee Cincinnati winning at least 3 of their remaining games. If they get a two game separation from Seton Hall (projected team 12 in the Big East), they should get in, especially since that will require a win against someone in the Big East's Elite 6.

Clemson - Currently 17-8, 6-5 in the ACC. Best wins at home vs. Florida St and BC. Okay, so I goofed. I have two spreadsheets. I updated Clemson's resume to reflect the home loss to North Carolina in the main one (where I keep a list of the projected top 150 RPI teams, along with the record splits for the top 100), but not the one where I was doing the seed list. So, in my next seed list, expect Clemson to drop without that big win I had projected for them.

Michigan State - Currently 13-10, 6-6 in the Big 10. Best Wins: Wisconsin, Minnesota, vs. Washington. I predict that Michigan St will go 2-4 to end the year. The smallest separation between wins and losses for an at-large team in the past 4 years was Arizona 2007, who was 18-13 on selection Sunday. There was a huge outcry, and only 2 or 3 bracketologists (including me) had them in. Knowing what I do now, I might have left them out. This is relevant, because a 2-4 finish will put Michigan St at 15-14 and 8-10 in the Big 10. I think it is clear why I refuse to consider this team, despite the Izzo factor.

Bryce's New Seed List also up

2011-02-14T07:23:00.001-08:00

I've got to run to class now, but you can find my new seed list on my page. Please remember that my seed list is a projected to March, not a reflection of the current state of things.

This spot is reserved for a proper write-up concerning the new seed list. I will tell you that I booted Maryland - I realized that if they don't get decent wins, they will not be in.

I'm only going down to seed 12 on this seed list, as those are the ones that move around.

1. Ohio St, Pitt, Texas, Kansas
2. Duke, SDSU, ND, Purdue
3. BYU, G'town, Kentucky, Syracuse
4. Louisville, Wisconsin, UNC, Villanova
5. WVU, UConn, Missouri, Florida
6. Arizona, Vanderbilt, Temple, Texas A&M
7. Washington, Minnesota, St. Mary's, Tennessee
8. Cincinnati, Old Dominion, Florida St, Utah St
9. Richmond, Marquette, Xavier, St John's
10. Illinois, UNLV, Clemson, BC
11. George Mason, Oklahoma St, Memphis, Washington St
12. Va Tech, Kansas St, Georgia, Colorado St, UCLA, Oakland

New In: Kansas St, Colorado St, UCLA
New Out: Dayton, Maryland, Nebraska
Last 4 Out:
Next 4 Out:

Moving up (2+ lines): Georgetown, North Carolina, Florida, St. Mary's, Marquette
Moving down (2+lines): Villanova, Arizona, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Illinois, UNLV, Georgia

Other thoughts:

*I'll probably be flip-flopping SDSU and BYU right up until the final day. I think that BYU is better and has the better resume, but if SDSU goes 15-1 and BYU goes 14-2... Hopefully I'll be able to same-line them.

*The CAA is close to guaranteed two spots - this is what happens when you have two teams in and around the top 25 RPI. However, neither team can suffer bad losses - i.e. non-Bracketbuster, non-VCU losses.

*What would YOU do with Tennessee? They are so obviously good, and yet they tend to take the night off against bad teams. If you seed them high, then they'll underperform their seed and the committee will take heat. If you seed them low, they'll overperform their seed and the committee will take heat.

*Other hard teams to judge are Illinois, UNLV, Arizona, and Washington. Don't be surprised to see movement with those week to week, even without surprising results.

*So, I was wrong about how good Nebraska is. Oops.

CJ's New Bracket is Up

2011-02-13T21:14:00.000-08:00

Check it out on my side-page: Here

Few Notes:

- If ND wins out in the regular season they are a serious 1 seed contender
- Michigan State better start winning
- Ditto for the Shockers
- Butler is down to Horizon Tourney win or bust!

0-10 vs. the RPI top 50... and IN?

2011-02-08T14:42:00.000-08:00

Thats the conundrum that I faced at the bottom of this bracket. I didn't really have many good choices - I'm predicting Maryland to be 0-10 vs. the RPI top 50, but 20-1 vs. RPI 50+ (including 6 wins over the RPI 50-100). Oklahoma St will be 5-9 vs. the RPI top 100, but has 3 bad losses. Of course, all teams have bad losses - Dayton has 4 of them. Kansas St is 1-8 against the RPI top 50. UCLA will be 19-12, 5-10 against the RPI top 100... but with a neutral site win against projected 2 seed BYU. A home win against the top two lines isn't rare - but a road/neutral win is something special.

Here is my bracket for this week. Through games of February 8.

(In order, the regional sites are Newark, Anaheim, San Antonio, New Orleans)

1: Ohio St, Pittsburgh, Texas, Kansas
2 Syracuse, BYU, Villanova, Duke
3: Kentucky, Purdue, SDSU, Notre Dame
4: Louisville, Arizona, UConn, Wisconsin
After last year 1-bid Pac-10 fiasco, I'll never underseed a Pac-10 team again. Also, everyone on the two line is still gunning for a one seed.

5: Texas A&M, Tennessee, Florida, Georgetown
6: West Virginia, Cincinnati, UNC, Vanderbilt
7: Temple, Missouri, Minnesota, Illinois
8: UNLV, Florida St, Richmond, Washington

Georgetown and Tennessee should absolutely fall on the same line. Also, one question is whether the committee will drop Minnesota for being a weaker team, despite their stockpile of good wins.

9: ODU, Nebraska, St. Mary's, Utah St
10: BC, St. John's, Georgia, Xavier
11: Memphis, Clemson, Marquette, George Mason
12: Va. Tech, Dayton/Ok St, Wash. St/Maryland, Belmont
I hate the bubble.

13: Wichita St, Butler, Oakland, Harvard
14: Fairfield, LBSU, Charleston, Kent St
15: N. Colorado, Murray St, CCU, Bucknell
16: SFA/Tx So, Hampton/FAU, CCSU, Vermont

First Four out: Kansas St, UCLA, Duquesne, Missouri St.
Next Four out: VCU, Colorado St, Alabama, Cal

Bryce is back/Seed List for January 30

2011-01-30T18:54:00.001-08:00

EDIT: 10:17 PM ET - I forgot to enter WVU into the bracket originally, so I had to update this.

I've been trying to decide whether or not I wanted to do any posting this year. I do the brackets for myself, because I like to do it. However, I don't always like to put in the time to make posts on a blog. But, given that the major part of my energy goes into the brackets, and I'm already doing that.... well, I guess I'll start posting.

Keep in mind that these are my predictions for Selection Sunday, not a reflection of today. Also, I created this seed list while creating a bracket, and amended it accordingly. The ordering of team reflects regions, not relative strength.

1: Kansas (B12), Ohio St. (B10), Duke (ACC), Pitt (BE)
2: Kentucky (SEC), Texas, Villanova, SDSU (MWC)
3: Purdue, Syracuse, BYU, Texas A&M
4: Notre Dame, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Washington (P10)
5: Arizona, Vanderbilt, Louisville, Missouri
6: Tennessee, Richmond (A10), Florida, WVU
7: Georgetown, Florida St., Temple, Cincinnati
8: Illinois, St. Mary's (WCC), Nebraska, BC
9: North Carolina, UNLV, Georgia, Minnesota
10: Virginia Tech, Missouri St (MVC), Washington St., Clemson
11: George Mason (CAA), Virginia Commonwealth, St. John's, Michigan St.
12: Butler (Horizon), Oklahoma St/Maryland, Butler (Horizon), Marquette/Duquesne,
13: Oakland (Summit), Harvard (Ivy), Memphis (SB), Utah St (WAC)
14: LBSU (BW), Montana (BSky), Charleston (SoCon), Kent St (MAC)
15: Bucknell (Patriot), Coastal Carolina (BSouth), Fairfield (MAAC), LIU (NEC)
16: Hampton(MEAC)/AP (OVC), SFA (S land)/Tex. So. (SWAC), Vermont (AE), FAU (SB)

2010-12-25T17:59:00.000-08:00

Welcome to the 2010-2011 Year

2010-12-25T17:58:00.001-08:00

First Bracket up on my page

Regular Updates to come starting 1/14

CJ

Selection Show Liveblog: Why are we expanding the damn tournament again?

2010-03-14T14:21:00.000-07:00

9:43: So, IRL, Bryce got 294, and the Consensus got 297.

7:59: Err.... The consensus got 298.

7:19: Bryce got 285, CJ got 299.

6:51: Consensus got 290 points. 63/65 correct, 29 seeded correctly, 50 within 1.

6:39: The Committee broke the rules. 3 BE teams in one region?

6:32: WHHHHHHHHHAT?????? LOUISVILLE IS OUT?????

6:24: And... we're done. Florida was in, but Minnesota was out. And we KNEW Xavier would be overseeded, we just didn't give them enough credit.

6:15: This committee is horrible. Underseeding of Tennessee, overseeding of Michigan St. Consensus missed 3 by 2 or more.

6:06 WOW... how is Duke the #3 overall seed, I don't get it... Cuse out west... yikes, tough break for the Cuse early in the show... what does this say about Cal? maybe they are in now, yikes

6:04: Wow. Syracuse the #4? Wow. Committee, you suck.

5:55: Still agonizing.

5:51: Mike Brey - "Well, not only our conference but our League"

5:28: I'm going to feel sick when I see Virginia Tech. I'm going to feel more sick if W&M makes their first tournament.

5:24: CJ and I finish up our respective brackets. All these teams are terrible. Minnesota choked. Florida is our last team in. Neither of us have confidence in this.

Consensus Bracket FINAL

2010-03-14T13:43:00.000-07:00

1: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, West Virginia
2: Duke, Kansas St, Ohio St, New Mexico
3: Villanova, Pittsburgh, Baylor, Temple
4: Georgetown, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A&M
5: Tennessee, Richmond, Vanderbilt, Butler
6: Gonzaga, Oklahoma St., Maryland, Notre Dame
7: Wake Forest, Michigan St, Texas, BYU
8: Northern Iowa, Georgia Tech, Xavier, Louisville
9: St. Mary’s, Marquette, Clemson, Florida St
10: Utah St, UNLV, San Diego St, Missouri
11: Old Dominion, UTEP, Washington, Mississippi St
12: Cornell, New Mexico St, Illinois, Florida
13: Siena, Murray St, Wofford, Oakland
14: Houston, Ohio, UC-Santa Barbara, Sam Houston St.
15: Montana, E. Tennessee St, Morgan St, North Texas
16: Vermont, Robert Morris, Lehigh, Winthrop, UA-Pine Bluff

Last Four In: UTEP, Mississippi St, Florida, Illinois
First Four Out: Minnesota, Virginia Tech, William and Mary, Memphis
Next Four Out: Dayton, Seton Hall, Rhode Island, Cal

Selection Sunday Liveblog!

2010-03-14T00:56:00.001-08:00

(NOTE: CJ's comments will be in bold, Bryce non-bold)

4:30 We are trying to bracket our seed lines but we are running into huge BE problems... we have too many big east teams at the bottom, only way to respond is to move Pitt to 4, ND to 5 etc... or move WVU to the 1... so we are moving WVU to the 1...

3:23: Here's what we have now. This is almost final, but we're going to take 45, then come back and confirm seeding, confirm our bubble.

1: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
2: West Virginia, Kansas St, Ohio St, New Mexico
3: Villanova, Pittsburgh, Baylor, Temple
4: Georgetown, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A&M
5: Tennessee, Richmond, Vanderbilt, Butler
6: Gonzaga, Oklahoma St., Maryland, Wake Forest
7: Michigan St, Texas, Notre Dame, Northern Iowa
8: St. Mary’s, Georgia Tech, Xavier, Louisville
9: Marquette, Clemson, Florida St, BYU
10: Utah St, UNLV, San Diego St, Missouri
11: Old Dominion, UTEP, Washington, Mississippi St
12: Cornell, New Mexico St, Minnesota, Illinois
13: Siena, Murray St, Wofford, Oakland
14: Houston, Ohio, UC-Santa Barbara, Sam Houston St.
15: Montana, E. Tennessee St, Morgan St, North Texas
16: Vermont, Robert Morris, Lehigh, Winthrop, UA-Pine Bluff

3:16: Mississippi St is in. Eye Test. I feel like Illinois is this years Arizona. So we're down to Minnesota/Virginia Tech.

3:10: Bryce is trying to get Miss St. out of the field, idk how he can do that, taking UK to OT 2x, this time by .1 seconds, do u really think the tournament committee would hold a team out because of .1 seconds? They have some mercy.

2:58: The Bubble teams. For the last three spots, we're looking at William and Mary, Florida, Virginia Tech, Illinois, Minnesota, Mississippi St. Florida gets discarded immediately - there just isn't anything there. We're going to attack this like we're looking for reasons to put these teams in.
Positives of each:
Virginia Tech: 8-5 vs. RPI top 100, wins @ GT, vs. WF and Clemson. 23-8 overall record.
Illinois: 5 RPI top 50 wins, neutral site over Wisconsin, wins vs. Vanderbilt and Michigan St, and @Clemson.
Florida: Wins over Tennessee and Vanderbilt. OUT
William and Mary: Wins @ WF and Maryland, and vs. Richmond.
Minnesota: 5 RPI top 50 wins, neutral site win over Butler, Wisconsin, vs. Michigan State and Ohio St, 27 stomping of Purdue.
Mississippi St: 9-6 vs. RPI top 100, wins vs. Vanderbilt and Old Dominion

2:44: BYU crisis - are they too low on the 9. Heart says yes, but I can't do it. Almost convinced CJ to drop Okie St down a line, but he changed his mind. Clemson and Florida St got put on the nine line at the expense of UNLV and Utah St.

2:36: We're just kind of chilling out, watching the SEC championship. Got done through the nine line. Xavier and Louisville both are 8s - Xavier because of the Committee Rep, Louisville because of the sweep of Syracuse. Here's what we have:

1: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
2: West Virginia, Kansas St, Ohio St, New Mexico
3: Villanova, Pittsburgh, Baylor, Temple
4: Georgetown, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A&M
5: Tennessee, Richmond, Vanderbilt, Butler
6: Gonzaga, Oklahoma St., Maryland, Wake Forest
7: Michigan St, Texas, Notre Dame, Northern Iowa
8: St. Mary’s, Georgia Tech, Xavier, Louisville
9: Marquette, Utah St, UNLV, BYU
10: San Diego St.

2:15: I hate moving the Mountain West teams down, but it has to happen. They just don't have the right stuff to get compete with these other teams, especially not with a committee rep. Reminds me, Wake's AD is on the committee. They get boosted up to the 6 line, and Michigan St falls to the 7. Personally, I think that Michigan St has no unqualified wins besides the razor thin home win over Gonzaga, and thats gonna count against them.

2:03: I feel like we have forgotten the Spartans... this would make my life easier, Drop Wake to the 7 line and then drop UNLV to the 8 line... they have wins at Purdue and at home vs Wisconsin (granted both with injury Q's) but Lucas missed some game time too...

1:52: ND's resume is stronger than Wake's on paper, but how can you have Gonzaga and Maryland on the 6 and then not put Wake who has beaten both of those teams, ND's resume says 7 7 7 7 all over it, if they are a 6 I'll take the point loss. Now who to put up on the 6, I guess I'm going to have to look at the resumes again, I guess I'll relook at UNI and GT, I think we are overrating the #7 RPI Conference in the Mountain West, yet they have 4 tournament teams which shows that the bottom of the conference is very weak and doesn't help the resumes, beating each other up only gets so far. Maybe Michigan State goes here?

1:50: I just handed CJ the Wake and Notre Dame resumes. I'll let him post about that.

1:45: After slotting Gonzaga and Ok St, we put up 7 teams for the last two spots on the 6 line: UNLV, BYU, Northern Iowa, Maryland, Wake Forest, Louisville, Georgia Tech. UNLV and BYU slid, because CJ thinks we're overseeding them - CJ will sum that up. Maryland is an obvious choice because of their win over Duke, Northern Iowa goes on the 7. UNI has a lot of top 100 wins. Wake, by virtue of being the last team with a winning top 50 record, goes on the 6.

1:31: Bryce will get the 3 points for having them in the tournament. Also, Oklahoma St's 5-10 record versus the RPI top 100 will keep them off the 5.

1:27: Bryce will get 0 points for Ok. State

1:24: Finally getting back to the 6 line, where we left off. Arguing about Oklahoma St. Great wins. CJ is convinced that Kansas, Baylor, @ Kansas St. will give them the 5 seed.

1:05 I think that Miss St. is in assuming they don't blow up in this SEC Final..., plus then the committee doesn't need to make 2 brackets ;)

1:01: Friend just noted idiot mistake re: Cal. The loss to UCLA was not at Pauley, but at Cal. That friend still think thats regular season Pac-10 championship counts for something. Not when 6/10 teams are 100+ in RPI.

12:52: Damn you Jay Bilas, stop making sense. He's making it hard to keep Duke as a 1. He just advocated against his own team. Also, CJ is talking UTEP down to the 10.

12:46: Just gave the USU and UTEP resumes to CJ. He agree's - almost the same, but USU is better. USU on the 8, with St. Mary's; UTEP on the 9.

12:43 Cal is out... they just don't have the wins and according to the Lesson from 2008, the committee doesn't care if you try to schedule and fail... OUT, and Bryce just threw our first resume across the table

12:39 PM: UNLV and BYU are the same resume, except UNLV won at New Mexico, but has worse losses. We slotted BYU on the 6 line, so UNLV goes to the 7 line.

12:33 PM: Thank you Jay Bilas! He just confirmed everything we thought about Cal.

12:24 PM: Lets get this started. Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, in that order. Duke and West Virginia have the exact same resume. We argued this back and forth last night. Finally, we make the decision based on the eye-test.

5:00 AM: So, CJ and I have decided to keep a liveblog detailing our Selection Sunday. We actually started discussing around 12:00 AM, and ran until 3:30 AM, just getting a rough idea of where the bracket stands. I will now regurgitate the lessons we learned the hard way from the past two years.

1) Teams with an RPI over 80 aren't getting in (Arizona St., '08)
2) Bad Losses don't matter (Boston College, '09)
3) Big 6 conference teams with a Committee rep should be bumped up.
4) Road/Neutral Record Doesn't Matter
4) Elite road wins do matter. (Boston College '09)
5) When no one has an elite win, don't compare wins. Compare number of wins. (Gonzaga '09)

Thats all I can think of for now. See you in a few hours.

Team Sheets - Runthrough 1

2010-03-13T21:03:00.000-08:00

So, we printed out all the team sheets today in preparation for a marathon argument session tomorrow. I decided to familiarize myself with them, and came up with a seed list. That's what I'm going to put forward as my seed list for right now.

In case you didn't hear, New Mexico St, Washington, Houston, and San Diego St all stole bids. Damn Western teams. As an aside, as detailed in the last post, the team that Washington may have stolen that bid from is Cal.

I'm calling it here first. The Cal Golden Bears will NOT make the tournament, despite being in 80/80 brackets and averaging an 8 seed.

Is Cal in?

2010-03-13T20:28:00.000-08:00

While I wait for CJ to return from Florida, I figured I'd post about something that bothers me. Recently, various media and blogger types have been saying that since Cal won the Pac-10 regular season, Cal is in. I don't think it works that way. Let's look at some key numbers on Cal.

RPI: 20
SOS: 13
Well, those look good...

Wins against tournament teams: 3-6
Well, thats not horrible. Wait. Who are those wins, you ask? Washington... who they also lost to twice. Murray St and UC-SB? They're in the tournament? Ohhhhh... AQs. If you take out the two AQ's, Cal is 1-6 vs. tournament teams (notably, also their record vs. the RPI top 50).

Okay, okay... what about their RPI top 100 record? 5-7. Come on... William and Mary is 6-7, and has better wins. Rhode Island is 7-7, and has better wins.

Bad Losses: 3
I know, I hate using bad losses. But some blogger whose writing I normally respect was trying to justify Cal by saying that their profile should be evaluated like a mid-major, and that they had avoided bad losses. Cal had three bad losses: at USC, at Oregon St, and at Pauley against UCLA.

Since I've already used one measure that I despise, lets take a look at another. Road/Neutral Record: 8-9. Not terrible, but certainly not something to hang your hat on.

Its fairly obvious that Washington, who took 2 out of 3 from Cal, actually has a halfway decent win (against A&M), and has a better record against the top 100 (8-5 vs. 5-7) will be seeded higher than Cal. I currently have Washington as a 12. This does not bode well for Cal.

If the Golden Bears get in, it will be a travesty.

EDIT: And my biggest trouble was finding a team to take Cal's spot. Thank you, New Mexico St Aggies, for solving my problem.

Well Played, Aztecs

2010-03-13T09:58:00.000-08:00

You know that advertisement for “The Show”, that baseball game for the PS3, which ends with the blonde dude using the line “Well played, Mauer”. Right now, I just want to turn to SDSU and say “Well played, Aztecs.” That and much more, brought to you by this Fantastic Friday.

What happened yesterday?

The Bubble Strengthens:
My “team that is certainly not in” San Diego St has shown me up and dressed me down. Knocking off both Colorado St and New Mexico is enough to put them in today’s bracket, what with a 4-7 record vs. the RPI top 100, and two elite wins. I don’t know if that will be enough to keep them in the field come Sunday, though. Illinois and Minnesota also playing their way into the field, with their 5th RPI top 50 win apiece. Rhode Island moved out of the last four in by pounding St. Louis, also ending SLU’s slight chances, and Georgia Tech also locked themselves in by beating Maryland.

West Virginia’s quest for a one continues:
This is shaping up to be the most interesting one seed race we’ve had in at least a couple of years. Realistically, there are 4 candidates: West Virginia, Duke, Kansas St, and Ohio St. Each of those teams needs to win their conference tournament to have a shot at it. Assuming a conference tournament title, I rank them KSU>WVU>Duke>OSU. However, Kansas State’s chances are minimal at best so we’re back to looking at the team with 6 top 25 wins—WVU.

Whats on tap for tonight?
Bid-Stealers: Houston vs. UTEP; Washington vs. Cal; New Mexico St vs. Utah St – The first team I listed for each of those games is currently out of the tournament, while the latter is solidly in. Wins in these games would steal a bid from my last four in. Look for South Florida and Illinois to see their bids disappear today.

The Most Important Game, Illinois vs. Ohio St.:
Unlike South Florida, however, Illinois still has a game. If the Illini can win this one, they’ll pull themselves off the bubble. If not, I think they’ll find at the mercy of the bid-stealers. But remember, this is an Ohio State team with Evan Turner, still in play for a one seed. I don’t see this ending well.

West Virginia vs. Georgetown, Kansas St vs. Kansas, Duke vs. Miami (FL):
Speaking of Ohio St… as mentioned earlier, these three teams are also in contention for the final one seeds. Quoting my math textbook, I’ll leave it as an exercise for the reader to pick out who has the easiest route to the one seed.

North Carolina St vs. Georgia Tech:
By the way, you see that last one seed matchup? The 1/12 matchup in the semis of the ACC tournament? The other side of the bracket is just as wacky, with a 6/8 matchup. Anyways, North Carolina St and Miami are looking to play their way into the tournament. North Carolina St has already played itself onto the bubble, and Miami would be on the bubble with a victory over Duke.

One Bids:
Long Beach St vs. UC-Santa Barbara: Winner is a 14 seed. I don't feel like saying more about this.

Sam Houston St vs. Stephen F. Austin; South Carolina St. vs. Morgan St:
North Texas will be watching these games intently. Sam Houston St and Morgan St are heavy favorites, and would garner 15 seeds if they win. However, if either were to stumble, their opponents are only worthy of a 16 seed, and would push the Mean Green onto that 15 line.

Texas Southern vs. UA-Pine Bluff: The winner of this game is a lock for the play-in game. Both have RPIs beyond 170.

Saturday Morning Seed List

2010-03-13T08:23:00.000-08:00

My new seed list is up. William and Mary, and Florida both fell out, with Illinois and Minnesota taking their positions.

EDIT 12:30 PM: After some re-evaluation, I moved (cue menacing music) San Diego St. in instead of South Florida. Yea, ridicule me.

EDIT 1:58 PM: So, I just finished the bracket for this seed list. And then Houston won. Therefore, I'm not going to take the time to put that bracket into bloggable form. However, the seedings today made bracketing far harder than yesterday.

Upset Thursday

2010-03-11T22:56:00.000-08:00

What were the major headlines of upset Thursday?
West Virginia has a shot at a one? With Syracuse, Villanova, and Pitt all falling in short succession, West Virginia is now projected to win the Big East conference, a feat which would give them 19 top 100 wins. Only Kentucky is projected to have as many as 19. However, I believe that Duke’s 11 top 50 wins (as compared to West Virginia’s 7) will give them the nod. If Duke were to falter, then we may see two Big East one seeds. (As an aside – I started writing this halfway through the West Virginia game. I started rewriting this as Cincinnati came back. Glad I saved it.)

Conference USA goes from potential 3-bid league to 1-bid. A day which began with such promise had only one bit of good news for the 9th-best conference: UTEP is as good as advertised. UAB and Memphis, however, each fell short. Both had to work to do entering the conference tournament; those losses pop the bubbles for each. Moreover, this loss drops Memphis from the ranks of the top 50, weakening the resume of everyone in the tourney.

Bryce’s watch-list: Florida and SDSU escape; Arizona St falls. Florida, who Bryce has been keying on for a while, nearly played their way out of the tournament, before coming back and defeating Auburn. On the “not on the bubble” list from yesterday – Arizona St. fell to Stanford, destroying their hopes of the autobid and leaving Washington as the last hope of the Pac-10 conference for a second bid. San Diego St, however, outlasted the Rams of Colorado St, 76-74. In my eyes, this is a plus – all the other bracketologists will keep them in the bracket, and be shocked when they are out (like they did last year).

ACC joins in the fun. Miami beats Wake Forest, North Carolina State beats Clemson, Virginia beats Boston College. Only the 7-11 matchup (Georgia Tech/North Carolina) did not partake, but at least the Tarheels put up a fight to end their disappointing season. Incidentally, despite these upsets, not much should change by way of seeding.

What’s on tap for tomorrow?
Patriot League Championship: Lehigh vs. Lafayette. With Jackson St. losing in the SWAC tournament, the SWAC tournament champion is now a lock for the play-in game. The only question: will its opponent be Winthrop, the upset champion out of the Big South, or Lafayette, whose 11 100+ losses and 1 GAME PLAYED against the RPI top 100 (a 97-64 rout by Georgetown) will similarly condemn it to Dayton.

Dayton vs. Xavier – Speaking of Dayton… as of now, Dayton is in my last four out. Obviously, I project them to lose this game. Moreover, the teams above them can’t lose enough to put them in – they have to play themselves in. The dichotomy for the Flyers is simple: Win and you’re in, lose and you’re out.

Michigan St. vs. Minnesota – The Gophers also have the ability to play their way into the tournament tomorrow. Right now, they have 5 RPI top 100 wins, and 12 total losses. While a win here would have Minnesota right on the edge, it would also enable them to get a game against Hummel-less Purdue tomorrow with a chance to win their win in.

Wisconsin vs. Illinois – Illinois is quite similar to Minnesota, with 5 top 100 wins and 13 total losses. However, unlike Minnesota, their 5 wins come as 4 top 50 wins. With a win here, they’d have 5 – one short of the 6 top 50 wins that got Arizona in last year. With a loss, however, their arguments will fall on deaf ears.

Florida vs. Mississippi St – You may have noticed that Florida is IN as of now, despite what CJ thinks. However, his predictions relegating Florida to the NIT may (Read: Probably will) come true if Florida is unable to win here.

UTEP vs. Tulsa – At this point, it seems all but certain that UTEP will be the lone C-USA team in the tournament. However, they could still lose, as they have to face Tulsa here on their home court. Last time they played here, the Miners took it 78-70. Tulsa, however, is playing for their tournament lives. Bubble teams everywhere will be watching this game.

Tennessee vs. Mississippi – Mississippi is probably in at 6-9 against the RPI top 100. But, without a win here, they will be palpitating on Sunday. No I’m not trying to be pretentious; it just that I’m as tired as you are of hearing about teams “sweating it out”. Thought I’d use a different word.

Georgia vs. Vanderbilt – I think this Georgia team has a finals run in them. So does CJ. Obviously, this means that you should immediately go bet on the Commodores.

Rhode Island vs. St. Louis – Returning to the A-10: I think Rhode Island is in regardless of what happens here. However, if Georgia and Tulsa were to win their respective conference tournaments, and URI does not win here, then their spot will be gone. Meanwhile, some still think SLU could sneak in with a finals run. I disagree, but not vehemently. Besides, the Billikens have the Majerus-power necessary to pull off a conference tourney run.

West Virginia vs. Notre Dame – As mentioned above, a win here will keep the Mountaineers in the hunt for a 1 seed. It should also be said that an Irish win here (their 7th straight) would put them in good shape to earn a 6 seed. Seriously – a 6-3 record over the RPI top 50 (and 13 RPI top 100 wins) compares pretty favorably with Richmond. Is this the fastest rise from Bottom Half of the NIT to Top Half of the NCAA?

Not on the Bubble

2010-03-09T22:48:00.000-08:00

Let me repeat that: the following teams are teams that everyone is enamored with, but are nowhere near the bubble:

Arizona State - CBS's Bubble Watch lists the following pros: RPI in the 50's, 7-6 Road/Neutral Record, "Notable" wins over SDSU and Washington. The top 40-45 slots go to at-large worthy candidates, so even if RPI was a good indicator, an RPI in the 50s still would be indicative of an NIT team. When your biggest selling point is that you have two wins over teams barely on the bubble... you aren't getting in.

San Diego St - The Aztecs have too few big wins (2, both at home), too many losses (9), and two bad losses (at Pacific and at Wyoming). Really, their only redeeming feature is that home win over New Mexico. Sorry guys, looks like a Not Invited resume to me.

Minnesota - Hey, I don't hate the West Coast... I can live with hating on the Midwest. Seriously Joe? Let me enumerate this teams top 100 wins: 1) neutral site over Butler, good but not great; 2) Leuer-less Wisconsin; 3) Turner-less Ohio St; 4) Road win over Illinois; 5) Morgan St, the conference champ of the 3rd-worst conference in the land. Its not like they haven't had chances, either; they are 3-6 vs. the RPI top 50. I mean, I guess if they manage to upset Michigan St, I could see them in. Okay, fine Mr. Lunardi, you may have your Gophers.

Can't we just have the bubble shrink by four teams?

2010-03-08T22:58:00.000-08:00

I don't remember this being this hard last year. Most of my struggles involved getting people to believe that Arizona was in.

Anyhow, the bracket is up.

EDIT: So, apparently I forgot to update the date on my page. This is fixed now. Also, I knew there was a reason I didn't want to put UConn in. And St. John's is last eight only if they manage to beat Marquette. Also, I've got this feeling about William and Mary - they may get switched in sometime later this week.

Friday New Bracket

2010-03-05T17:09:00.000-08:00

Hey all,

I just posted my latest bracket. I actually simmed through the conference finals this time, with some surprising findings. This time, Florida, Illinois, and UConn fell out, replaced by Wichita St, Memphis, and Dayton.

My next bracket won't come until next Friday night.

Bryce

Some musings over data

2010-03-03T10:18:00.000-08:00

I was playing around with some data from last year’s tournament. I wanted to see if models containing Top 50 Plus/Minus were better or worse at predicting whether a team would be in the tournament than Top 100 Plus/Minus. I ran two logistic regressions. In both cases, I included SOS and Conference Win Loss. In both cases, the model incorrectly projected 5 teams: Utah St, Maryland, San Diego St, Creighton, and New Mexico.

What surprised me the most was that the selection model gave Utah St. only a 4% chance of being selected. This indicated that Utah St, despite earning an 11 seed was an auto-bid that would not have made it as an at-large. Thus, it must have earned a true seed of 12, and then been swapped to avoid conflicts. What conflict? Well, three of the four 4/5/12/13 pods were located in Boise or Portland, and so Utah St couldn’t go to any of those by the protection requirement. The final 4/5/12/13 slot was taken by Utah, who Utah St couldn’t play. Since teams cannot be swapped into the top 4 or bottom 4 lines, Utah St had to go up. So, I switched the dummy variable tag on Utah St to “Out”. On the next run, both Creighton and Utah St. were predicted correctly. San Diego St was now correctly predicted, but Siena was not. Maryland was hovering around 50%. New Mexico seemed to be the only outlier in the group, but I don’t remember them being talked about overly much last year.

Another critical nugget of data – in every regression I ran involving a variable for road/neutral games*, that variable turned up as not statistically significant. Moreover, of the teams that I was looking at, Arizona had the fewest Road/Neutral wins. Therefore, when choosing your last few teams in, you should avoid making arguments from Road/Neutral. It does appear, however, that the seed a team is given is correlated with road/neutral winning percentage. Since the committee selects and seeds at different times, it is possible that some committee members weigh road/neutral more heavily when seeding than when selecting.

(Oh, right. The initial question. Top 100 Plus Minus is better than Top 50 wins, which is better than top 50 plus minus.)

*Road/neutral wins, road/neutral plus minus, non-conference road/neutral wins

Bryce's Bubble Teams in Action

2010-03-02T16:00:00.000-08:00

2 teams Bryce have in the field I do not are in action tonight, with chances to get themselves into the field

Florida AT HOME vs Vandy (7PM ESPN2): This is simply a must win for the Gators, who need another good win to feel good about have a shot of getting in

Illinois @ Ohio State (9PM ESPN)- A steal here and they are in for good... if not the L12 record and lack of elite wins start creeping more in the conversation.

For the Record, I have both UF and U of I losing tonight and my projected bracket is based off that.

Five Impact Games: March 2 - March 4

2010-03-02T14:39:00.000-08:00

Here are the five games that I see having the biggest impact over the next three days:

1) Charlotte @ URI (03/03, 7:00)– This is kind of a bubble elimination game. The winner won’t be in, but will be in better shape than the loser. The loser of this game will likely need a run to the finals in the A-10 tourney.
2) Connecticut @ Notre Dame (03/03, 7:00, ESPN)– This game is essentially a play-in game for the NCAA tournament. The winner of this game locks up a bid, even if they lose the next two. The loser has some work to do.
3) Duke @ Maryland (03/03, 9:00, ESPN)– If Duke wins, they get the 1 seed, and Maryland drops back into the ACC pack. If Maryland wins, they get protected, and Duke remains a two seed.
4) Dayton @ Richmond (03/04, 7:00, CBS College Sports)– The Flyers are in desperate need of a road win. If they can win here, they will put themselves on the correct side of the bubble.
5) Vanderbilt @ Florida (03/02, 7:00, ESPN)– This game has some huge implications, including who buys the snacks for the Selection Sunday party. More importantly, after blowing the game at Georgia, Florida’s tournament hopes rest upon this game.

Honorable mentions:
Villanova @ Cincinnati (03/02, 7:00, ESPN2)
Minnesota @ Michigan (03/02, 7:00, BTN)
UTEP @ Marshall (03/02, 7:00)
Baylor @ Texas Tech (03/02, 8:00)
Illinois @ Ohio St (03/02, 9:00, ESPN)

Kansas St. @ Kansas (03/03, 8:00, B12 Network)
Kentucky @ Georgia (03/03, 8:00, SEC TV)
Temple @ SLU (03/03, 8:00)
Memphis @ UAB (03/03, 9:00, CSS)

Five High Impact Games of the Last Week

2010-03-02T11:25:00.000-08:00

The five games between 02/23 and 03/01 that really impacted the brackets:

1)@ Oklahoma St 85, Kansas 77: This was a key win for the Cowboys. Instead of sitting at 3-7 vs. the RPI top 50, 8-8 in conference, with one great win and two decent wins, they now add a second elite win, and are projected 4-6 against the RPI top 50. That pushes them off the bubble and into the 6-8 seed range.

2) @ Notre Dame 68, Pitt 53; Notre Dame78, @ Georgetown 64: Two games pushed Notre Dame from “solidly out” to “near the top of the bubble”. These two games give the Irish two additional wins over top 25 teams, and are now projected to go .500 against RPI top 50 teams, and 9-8 against the top 100. More important is the fact that they won on the road against a decent team. The win in DC helped eliminate the major flaw in the Irish resume – the lack of a big road win.

3) Michigan St 53, @Purdue 44: This win shores up the drooping Michigan St resume with a road win, but opens up two new questions. First, how good is Michigan St, really? This team lost at home by 12 to a healthy Purdue team, lost by 11 to Texas on the road, lost by 7 to North Carolina on the road, lost by 3 on a neutral court to Florida, and lost by 5 on the road to Illinois. Even their wins (4 points at home over Gonzaga, 7 points at home over Wisconsin) seem to indicate that this team should be somewhere between a 6 and 8 seed, with a 5 as the ceiling. But that begs the question “How good is Purdue without Robbie Hummel”? With what we saw Saturday, I’d say that this Purdue team is about on par with Illinois. They’ll still garner a high seed in the tournament, but look for them to be upset early.

4) New Mexico 83, @BYU 81: One of the big knocks on New Mexico was that despite their gaudy 27-3 record, the only road wins they had were against UNLV and New Mexico St. Moreover, a loss here would have assured them of finishing second in their conference. By completing the sweep, New Mexico answered both of those knocks. They will finish the season 28-3, 7-2 against the RPI top 50, with one loss outside the RPI top 50. They are very comparable to the 2s and the 3s, and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see them in the final four.

5) Minnesota 62, @Illinois 60: This loss puts Illinois in a precarious position – while 4 RPI top 50 scalps is nice, their overall projected profile (18-13, 4-8 vs. RPI top 50, 1-2 vs. RPI 50-100) seems to suggest that most nights, this team can’t play with the big boys. Imagine how different this would look with a 2-1 instead of a 1-2. That little switch puts Illinois right on the cut line.

Quick Hit Honorable Mentions:
Clemson 53, @Florida St 50: Florida St and Clemson essentially switch places on the bubble.
Maryland 104, @Virginia Tech 100: Maryland creates separation at the top of the ACC.
@Tennessee 74, Kentucky 65: I have to admit, CJ was right: I wasn’t giving Tennessee the full weight of their projected win over Kentucky.
@St. Bonaventure 81, Rhode Island 74; @George Washington 75, Charlotte 70: When your resume is based around the fact that you haven’t taken any bad losses, taking a bad loss is devastating.

Consensus Bracket Postponed

2010-03-01T22:49:00.000-08:00

Hey loyal readers (all two of you):

It looks like our consensus bracket this week is going to be delayed until Thursday. CJ and I don't have a time that we can both block off two hours to get this done until then. But I will be making a post or two over the next couple of days, so be sure to come and read those.

--Bryce

Brackets are Up

2010-02-28T18:18:00.000-08:00

Both CJ and I have posted our new individual brackets.

Both notably feature Notre Dame in, as seen here first in our consensus bracket last Wednesday. Mark my words - Joe Lunardi will have Notre Dame in on Selection Sunday; he's just too ashamed to have counted them without a chance in hell just one week ago (That goes for anyone who has them out right now).

Bracket Debate

2010-02-26T14:14:00.001-08:00

So our bracket debate is finally up. We decided to summarize it this week, just in case you don’t want to take the time sorting our arguments. The bracket debate is time-stamped, so if you want to read what was actually said, we have provided the times when each area was discussed. Highlights are Nova/Purdue, Duke/Pitt, the merits of Florida, and the overwhelming suckage at the bottom of the at-large teams.

--1 Seeds--
10:10:58-10:25:18: Debating Villanova vs. Purdue for the final one seed. CJ questions Villanova’s numerous losses to elite teams; Bryce focuses on Purdue’s lack of wins. We conclude that if Nova finishes 14-4 in the Big East, they’ll get the one seed; and if they lose two games, they’ll be a two seed. Since we disagree on how many they will win, we decide to move on to the two line and revisit this debate later.

--2 Seeds--
10:33:06-10:35:40 (Is Pitt a 2?) : After agreeing upon Kansas St. as the second two seed, we get stuck with three candidates for two spots: Duke, Pitt, and West Virginia. CJ wants Duke and West Virginia; Bryce wants West Virginia and Pitt. Bryce argues that Pitt has winning road records over teams in top 50 and top 100 RPI, and shows how their overall categories match up with West Virginia. CJ focuses on their loss to IU and their blowout loss to Notre Dame, saying that “by that logic, Notre Dame would have to be in the field. And they’re not.” Bryce counters with Louisville’s one seed despite a similar loss last year.

10:37:03- 10:47:25 (Is Duke a 2?): Trying a different tack, Bryce argues that Duke is not on the two-line because they haven’t beaten anyone who will be in the top 5 lines. CJ believes that the sheer quantity of wins over tournament teams (8) and the lack of bad losses pushes Duke over Pitt. Bryce talks about Duke’s minimal road wins. CJ refuses to keep Duke off the two line, and offers to allow West Virginia onto the three line if Purdue gets to be the final one. We agree, thus finishing the top two lines… or so we think.

--In Defense of Texas--

10:47:49-10:56:52 (The 3 Line Defense): Bryce’s attempts to defend Texas as a three seed are mostly unsuccessful. He notes that Texas has 6 wins against the RPI top 50, 11 against the top 100. CJ keys on their potential 4-8 record in the last 12; Bryce thinks that will be closer to 6-6. Bryce counters he has evidence that last 12 record has no correlation to seed. CJ pulls out the “eye test”, claiming that Texas is a 5. Bryce concedes Ohio State and Wisconsin over Texas. He then notes that in all relevant areas, Texas and Baylor are identical. We put Baylor as the last 3, although this is contingent on the soon to end Texas and Baylor games.

11:12:58-11:20:00 (Oops…): At this point, we make two crucial discoveries: Hummel is out for the season, and we forgot Georgetown. We decide that, although the committee will reward Purdue for their season, the loss of Hummel is enough to drop them below Villanova. Georgetown is put on the two-line over Pitt on the strength of better wins and no bad losses. Bryce is happy—Pitt and West Virginia are so similar, he believes they ought to be on the same line.

11:20:31-11:49:29 (The 4 Line Defense): The Georgetown discovery has bumped Baylor to the 4 line. Bryce concedes that New Mexico and BYU ought to be ahead of Texas. CJ has one more spot to go. Bryce argues that Vanderbilt is the only other team with a claim to the 4 line, but CJ puts up Tennessee as his candidate. It is clear that Kansas, Kentucky and Syracuse are the elite teams; we believe that Tennessee will beat Kentucky this weekend, and own wins over two of those. Moreover, many of their losses occurred while Wayne Chism was injured. Bryce weakly offers their lack of good road wins, but concedes after briefly considering Temple. Texas drops to the five.

--The Middle Seeds--
11:57:38-12:00:38 (The 7 Seeds): From there, things progressed rather smoothly through the next 2.5 lines. When we got to the end of the 7 line, however, we were confronted with four candidates for two spots: Butler, Florida St, Marquette, and Connecticut. Connecticut went quickly, with surprisingly little discussion. Marquette was ruled out just as quickly, leaving Butler and Florida St. While Florida St. has 5 RPI top 50 wins, we decided that their horrible loss at Ohio St, combined with Butler’s defeat of the same, meant that Butler had to be the last 7.

12:02:42-12:23:55 (The 8 Seeds): So, at this point we considered Michigan St , who is going to finish with a ridiculous 2-6 against the RPI top 50. Despite how good we think they actually are, their resume is that of someone close to the bubble; besides, their UNC loss points to them being overrated. They’ll be a dangerous 8/9. We also considered UNLV, Xavier and Marquette for this line. With only 3 spots for those four, we had an argument. UNLV came out of the group first. Bryce argued against Xavier because their best win is against Richmond, a 6 seed, and talked up how well Marquette compares to Michigan St. CJ mentioned the selection committee make-up – the UConn, Ohio St, and Xavier Athletic Directors are on it, and made that the focus of his pro-Xavier argument. Right after we decided to kick Michigan St down a level, CJ remembered Northern Iowa and refused to have them as lower than an 8. We couldn’t come to an agreement on a second team to drop, so we decided that UNLV and Marquette would get screwed over by not having favorable committee members. Not the best solution, but really, this was the toughest decision we made.

--The Bubble, or, is Florida in--
12:31:07-1:17:00 (FLORIDA): The Florida debate would color the rest of the discussion; we managed to fill the next line without deciding on them. CJ started by championing Clemson as the first 10 seed. Bryce mentioned Florida, and CJ scoffed at the idea of even putting them in the bracket. Bryce argued that at 22-9 and holding wins over Tennessee, Vandy, Florida State, and Michigan St, that was enough to get Florida in. CJ discounted the win over Chism-less Tennessee, and over 8-seeds Michigan St and Florida, before attacking their weak non-conference. Bryce attempted to compare Clemson and Florida in the non-conference, and made the claim that a team can’t just schedule good teams, they have to beat some. CJ responded by pointing out Florida’s loss to South Alabama, and mentioned that Florida’s best wins came as splits in season series. Bryce responded that Clemson’s best wins came as splits in season series (Georgia Tech, Maryland), and showed that Florida had played the same number of top 50 RPI games (11) as Clemson, winning one more. At this point Bryce allowed that Clemson could be as much as four spots above Florida, due to the South Alabama loss. CJ returned to trashing the Florida non-conference, and showed Bryce Florida’s 220th ranked non-con SOS. Bryce checked in on Clemson’s non-con SOS, and triumphantly reported that Clemson’s non-conference ranked 250th, and revised his prior positioning statement to 3 spots. In disbelief, CJ listed off all of Florida’s crappy non-conference games; Bryce listed off the same number (7) of crappy Clemson non-conference games. CJ responded by listing off the good Clemson non-conference games; Bryce listed off the same number (4) of good Florida non-conference games. CJ finally conceded Florida on the 12 line.

Other teams mentioned in the course of the Florida debate were Illinois (Briefly at 12:36), William & Mary (Briefly at 12:37), Rhode Island (Briefly at 12:40), Old Dominion (Briefly at 12:59), Cal (1:04), Charlotte (1:07:04-1:11:09). Illinois was placed in because of their win at Clemson; William and Mary was discarded because of the Towson lost (but revisited later); Rhode Island was discarded because of their lack of wins (but revisited later and placed on the 10); Old Dominion was placed in at first mention; Cal was discarded because they have 0 top 50 wins; Charlotte was debated, and thrown into the disagreement pile – CJ thought they’d end the season 3-1, Bryce thought they’d end 1-3. Our 10 line ended as Old Dominion, Louisville, Clemson, URI, and Florida, USF, and Charlotte are on our “disagreement line”.

1:18:10-1:29:28 sees the South Florida debate. 1:30:10-1:38:35 sees CJ successfully argue for Notre Dame over South Florida, Seton Hall, and Virginia Tech, putting them in the bracket on the strength of their 2 wins over teams in the top 3 lines. While this seems weak, the quest to fill the final bracket shows just how strong that looks. When the committee is looking at the bubble, they are looking for reasons why a team should be in the bracket—and Notre Dame, South Florida, Florida, and Charlotte have them. We conclude by placing William and Mary in on the strength of two strong road wins, and then have to decide on St. Mary’s vs. San Diego St. While SDSU has the better resume, SMC beat them by 22, and makes it as the last team in the bracket.

Purdue's March Hopes Dashed

2010-02-25T13:27:00.001-08:00

Hummel is out for the season, I think at this point they'll be lucky to get a 2 seed... I can see them falling to a #3 seed come selection sunday

A Message to Bubble Teams

2010-02-24T22:53:00.000-08:00

Bubble Teams:
Please Stop Losing.
This was painful.
Thanks,

CJ

Yea, we just got finished the consensus seedlist. It hurt. Quite badly.

1: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova
2: Purdue, Kansas St., Duke, Georgetown
3: West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Ohio St, Wisconsin
4: New Mexico, Baylor, BYU, Tennessee
5: Temple, Texas, Maryland, Vanderbilt
6: Texas A&M, Wake Forest, Richmond, Gonzaga
7: Georgia Tech, Missouri, Connecticut, Butler
8: Florida St, Northern Iowa, Xavier, Michigan St
9: UNLV, Marquette, Utah St., Oklahoma St.
10: Old Dominion, Illinois, Clemson, Louisville
11: Notre Dame, South Florida, Florida, Charlotte
12: William and Mary, UTEP, Cornell, St. Mary’s
13: Cal, Murray St, Siena, Kent St
14: Oakland, Weber St, SoCon (Wofford), Sam Houston St
15: Pacific, Coastal Carolina, A-Sun (Belmont), Morgan St
16: Sun Belt (W. Kentucky), AE (Vermont), Patriot (Lehigh), NEC (Robert Morris), SWAC (UA-Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: San Diego St, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, Dayton
Next Four Out: Minnesota, VCU, UAB, Washington

Bids by Conference:
Big East (10): Syracuse, Villanova, Georgetown, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, South Florida
Big 12 (6): Kansas, Kansas St, Baylor, Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma St
ACC (5): Duke, Maryland, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Clemson
Big 10 (5): Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio St, Michigan St, Illinois
A-10 (4): Temple, Richmond, Xavier, Charlotte
SEC (4): Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida
MWC (3): New Mexico, BYU, UNLV
WCC (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's
CAA (2): Old Dominion, William and Mary
Pac-10 (1): Cal

Our debate over this bracket will appear sometime tomorrow.

Florida in the Field??? NOT SO FAST MY FRIENDS!

2010-02-24T13:45:00.000-08:00

My Bracket is up, go check it out!

Florida In?
Florida did have an impressive win last night over UT, but you have to remember its a home win against a Chismless Tennesee team. Florida's best non-conference win is Michigan State which has nowhere near the value it did around Christmas. I still like Dayton for now.

Other Thoughts on Bryce's Bracket

- ND 2nd team out? This has to be a typo... he meant to have them on the next 4 out line I would imagine... if not he's got a lot of explaining to do.

- Glad to see I finally got him on the UNM bandwagon, If they get this 4 seed and stay out West I WILL PICK THEM FOR THE FINAL FOUR... they are that good.

- Purdue over Nova for now due to the # of Big East losses they have against the top, but they have time to change this

- I think I have Maryland too high at a 7, and Bryce is crazy for having them at 6

- UConn will be this year's Arizona... Bracketologists didn't have Arizona in last year (WE did of course) and they won't learn from their mistakes

Comments?

CJ

Hop on the UConn Bandwagon? Been there, Done That?

2010-02-23T19:24:00.000-08:00

So, the guys over at Bracketology 101 think they're driving the Connecticut bandwagon. Ain't got nothing on us. Had them in on February 14, and now they're settled back into their original placing. Here's a chat transcript from a few minutes ago:

--
Bryce (10:17:32 PM): Hey, if you're not gonna be done with your bracket tonight
Bryce (10:17:45 PM): You want to just do a criticism/defense of mine?
CJ (10:17:49 PM): I'll have it up by midnight
Bryce (10:18:06 PM): I have some good points to attack.
Bryce (10:18:26 PM): Michigan St. and UConn are on the same line
CJ (10:18:39 PM): i might agree with it
CJ (10:18:44 PM): depending what the # is
Bryce (10:18:47 PM): 7
CJ (10:18:55 PM): i basically agree
Bryce (10:19:26 PM): the only bracketologists that are giving them above an 11 seed are computers
Bryce (10:19:39 PM): and 2/3 still have them out
CJ (10:19:43 PM): i love how people think they are a bubble team
CJ (10:19:45 PM): its hilarious
CJ (10:19:47 PM): it really is
Bryce (10:20:05 PM): Like, they beat a one seed on the road
Bryce (10:20:22 PM): i mean, thats almost enough to get you into the tournament by itself
Bryce (10:20:27 PM): but then to beat a two?
Bryce (10:20:42 PM): and a three?
CJ (10:20:55 PM): i agree
CJ (10:20:59 PM): preaching to the choir
--

If you think that I'm off my rocker, and that losses mean something, look at last year, Boston College and Maryland.

Only an Illusion...

2010-02-22T22:12:00.000-08:00

10 Big East teams in the tournament, that is. After taking a good hard look (actually, an entirely new perspective), I've decided that Rhode Island will get in over Seton Hall. But, had Seton Hall beaten Virginia Tech way back when, they would totally make the tournament.

Anyway, I have a new bracket up. Check it out under Bryce's Bracket.

10 Big East teams?

2010-02-19T14:44:00.000-08:00

Hey everyone,

Both Seige and I have posted new seedlists, to be found under our links up top. I decided to throw in all the auto-bids, and I made up a nice, shiny new bracket to go with the seedlist (So basically what I'm saying is that since I made my section look nicer than Seige's, you should value my opinion more).

So check out our seedlists, then come back and give us comment here.

Bryce

And so it begins...

2010-02-19T11:59:00.001-08:00

The annual race to not make the tournament, that is. Plenty of high-impact games last night – making me do a lot to fix my seed list:

Pittsburgh 58, At Marquette 51: Well… okay. So I’ve been listing Marquette as a 6-7 seed for the past few weeks, mainly on the belief that they would win all but one of their remaining games, including this one against Pitt. This loss send them backsliding. Instead of being the top of the 15 team clump mentioned in the bracket debate, the Golden Eagles are now closer to the bottom. Moreover, if they can’t beat Louisville in a couple of weeks, they may very well fall all the way out of the tournament.

Syracuse 75, At Georgetown 71: So, if you watch ESPN, you already know that Syracuse is undefeated in road and neutral site games this year, picking up such scalps Florida, Cal, UNC, West Virginia and Notre Dame. This just adds to the overly set of data that Syracuse does quite well on the road. Moreover, Syracuse only has one two tough games left – a home game against Nova, and a road game at Louisville. I think that with this win, Syracuse has assured themselves of a top 3 seed – even if they were end on a 5 game losing streak. Additionally, this loss helps resolve the logjam around the two line – Georgetown will most likely not be a two.

Vanderbilt 82, At Mississippi 78: Vanderbilt adds another win, which will help in their quest to get a 4 seed. However, the real story here is that Ole Miss is now in serious trouble. Without the Vanderbilt win, it looks like they will have only one win against the RPI top 50, and only 4 against the RPI top 100. Compare that to South Florida (2 and 8), Charlotte (4 and 4), Virginia Tech (2 and 7) or Seton Hall (2 and 7), and you see that they are in huge trouble.

At Oregon St 80, Cal 64; Southern Cal 67, At Washington 64: To those of you who think the Pac-10 is getting two bids: The Pac-10 isn’t getting two bids. The Pac-10 isn’t getting two bids. Whenever you think “Well, Cal or Washington will just tear everyone up to end the season” – remember tonight, when EVERY SINGLE UNDERDOG won. In other news, Southern Cal probably would have provided the Pac-10 with a second bid were they not ineligible for the postseason.

At Minnesota 68, Wisconsin 52: This loss probably won’t change seeding for Wisconsin. However, it does still hurt their effort to get placed in the Milwaukee pod. Assuming Kentucky is a 1 seed, they will go to Milwaukee, so Wisconsin needed to finish ahead of Purdue. I don’t see that happening. As for Minnesota – this win is key in getting back to the discussion. Now, if they can beat Purdue, or make it to the Big 10 tournament finals, they may be able to snag a bid. Until then, however, they are firmly out of the discussion.

At Loyola Marymount 74, Gonzaga 68: You may be thinking “So what? Gonzaga is still going to be a high seed, and Loyola Marymount is still way out. And you would be correct. However, Gonzaga is trying to get into a first-round site in Spokane (which they can do, because Washington State is hosting). I think they need to be a least a five seed for that to happen. When you have a resume that is built off of a November neutral site win, a gaudy win count, and a great RPI, well, you need to not lose. This loss may make the difference between a 5 seed playing in Spokane, and a 6 seed playing in New Orleans.

Consensus Seedlist Through February 12

2010-02-16T19:01:00.000-08:00

Our first consensus bracket of the year! Note that since we believe that seed lists only make sense if you are predicting where teams will be in March, the fact that this bracket is four days old has very little actual effect on it.

Also, be sure to check out the debate we had over this bracket in the "Bracket Debate" Section. Our big debates included Syracuse vs. Purdue, Wisconsin vs. Duke vs. Georgetown vs. Pitt, the final spot on the 6 line, and the huge bubble debate, culminating in South Florida vs. Virginia Tech vs. Dayton.

1: Kansas, Villanova, Kentucky, Syracuse
2: Purdue, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Duke
3: Georgetown, Pitt, Kansas St., Ohio St.
4: Texas, Vanderbilt, New Mexico, Tennessee
5: Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Michigan St, Baylor
6: BYU, Texas A&M, Temple, Marquette
7: Richmond, UConn, Maryland, Missouri
8: Butler, Xavier, Georgia Tech, Northern Iowa
9: Florida, Clemson, Florida St., William and Mary
10: Old Dominion, Oklahoma St, Illinois, Louisville
11: Charlotte, UNLV, South Florida, Mississippi
12: Dayton, Washington, Cornell, UAB

The bracket is also available under the consensus bracket link.

Welcome to Busting Bracketologists

2010-02-04T11:54:00.000-08:00

Welcome to the home of Busting Bracketologists, where our expert staff of bracketologists will give you all the information you need to make yourself look like a star on selection Sunday.

Our website is pleased to contain an expert staff including 2 of the 4 bracketologists to accurately select all 65 teams from the tournament field last year, including one that finished in the Top 5 nationally.

Each week (or there abouts) our 3 man staff will compile individual brackets of all 65 teams in the field, at that point we will combine the brackets (through agreement and consensus building) to come up with our Consensus bracket.

These brackets will be released by Tuesday, at which point our staff will debate differences in the Bracket Debate Area, and on Friday, we'll post our mailbag comments into that area.

Welcome to Busting Bracketologists and if you have any suggestions for our staff, feel free to contact us via email which can be found in the about us section.

Thanks,
Busting Bracketologists Staff