Sunday, February 27, 2011

Bryce Seed List through February 27

Sorry it has been a while. Assumes Wisconsin, UNC, and Washington win tonight. Remember, I do mine as a projection through the end of the year.

1. Ohio St, Pitt, Kansas, BYU
2. Texas, Notre Dame, Duke, Purdue
3. SDSU, Syracuse, Wisconsin, North Carolina
4. Arizona, Florida, Kentucky, St. John's
5. Connecticut, Louisville, Missouri, Vanderbilt
6. Georgetown, Cincinnati, Texas A&M, Villanova
7. Temple, Old Dominion, WVU, Utah St
8. Washington, UNLV, UCLA, Xavier
9. George Mason, St. Mary's, Florida St, Richmond
10. Tennessee, Illinois, Virginia Tech, Kansas St
11. Marquette, Nebraska, Memphis, Gonzaga
12. Belmont, Michigan St, Oklahoma St, Clemson, Minnesota, VCU
13. Butler, Oakland, Wichita St, Harvard
14. Charleston, LBSU, Montana, Fairfield
15. Kent St, Bucknell, Vermont, Coastal Carolina
16. Long Island, Florida Atlantic, Murray St, Mcneese St, Hampton, Texas Southern

First four out: Georgia, Boston College, UAB, Maryland
Next four out: Michigan, Washington St, Mississippi, Drexel

New In: Nebraska, Gonzaga, Michigan St, VCU
New Out: Georgia, Colorado St, Washington St, Boston College

Moving Up: St. John's (5), UCLA (4), BYU, Arizona, Cincy, UNLV, GMU, VT, Kansas St (2)
Moving Down: Minnesota (5), Georgetown, Tennessee (3), Villanova, West Virginia, St. Mary's, Marquette, Clemson (2)

Big East: 11
Big 12: 7
Big 10: 6
ACC: 5
SEC: 4
Pac-10: 3
MWC: 3
A-10: 3
CAA: 3

Monday, February 21, 2011

Who's going to win the last spot on the...

1 Line- (Current Contenders: Duke, Kansas, SDSU/BYU)

With the rough weekend for the teams fighting to be the Big East #2 to fight for the 1 seed, for now we can take all of those guys off the contender list. Duke, while having the worst wins out of conference, has destroyed the medicore ACC and has looked pretty convincing in doing so. Their weakness shows however with the road destruction by St. Johns.

Kansas, who I project to finish 2nd in the Big X who has played pretty well, and had the best loss of all the contenders losing at Kansas State. However, if they don't win their conference I don't know if they will be able to argue that the Big 12 #2 is better than the ACC #1.

SDSU/BYU- Crushing all Mountain West conference competition, with the expected BYU loss at SDSU coming up it will be tough for one of these teams to make the climb.

VERDICT: It will be tough for Duke if ranked the #1 team in America to not get the 1 seed, but an ACC loss opens the door for a lot of teams... Pick: Duke


I will evaluate the battle for the last 2,3 and 4 seed!

Monday, February 14, 2011

Bearkats, Tigers, and Spartans

So, looking around at a couple of teams that other people disagree with me on.

Cincinnati - Currently 19-6, 6-6 in the Big East, Wins over XU and at St. John's. With their current resume, it is almost unthinkable to me that 64/65 brackets over at the Bracket Matrix have them in. I mean, its a crappy resume, and most of those brackets are "as of now" projections. However, I foresee Cincinnati winning at least 3 of their remaining games. If they get a two game separation from Seton Hall (projected team 12 in the Big East), they should get in, especially since that will require a win against someone in the Big East's Elite 6.

Clemson - Currently 17-8, 6-5 in the ACC. Best wins at home vs. Florida St and BC. Okay, so I goofed. I have two spreadsheets. I updated Clemson's resume to reflect the home loss to North Carolina in the main one (where I keep a list of the projected top 150 RPI teams, along with the record splits for the top 100), but not the one where I was doing the seed list. So, in my next seed list, expect Clemson to drop without that big win I had projected for them.

Michigan State - Currently 13-10, 6-6 in the Big 10. Best Wins: Wisconsin, Minnesota, vs. Washington. I predict that Michigan St will go 2-4 to end the year. The smallest separation between wins and losses for an at-large team in the past 4 years was Arizona 2007, who was 18-13 on selection Sunday. There was a huge outcry, and only 2 or 3 bracketologists (including me) had them in. Knowing what I do now, I might have left them out. This is relevant, because a 2-4 finish will put Michigan St at 15-14 and 8-10 in the Big 10. I think it is clear why I refuse to consider this team, despite the Izzo factor.

Bryce's New Seed List also up

I've got to run to class now, but you can find my new seed list on my page. Please remember that my seed list is a projected to March, not a reflection of the current state of things.

This spot is reserved for a proper write-up concerning the new seed list. I will tell you that I booted Maryland - I realized that if they don't get decent wins, they will not be in.

I'm only going down to seed 12 on this seed list, as those are the ones that move around.

1. Ohio St, Pitt, Texas, Kansas
2. Duke, SDSU, ND, Purdue
3. BYU, G'town, Kentucky, Syracuse
4. Louisville, Wisconsin, UNC, Villanova
5. WVU, UConn, Missouri, Florida
6. Arizona, Vanderbilt, Temple, Texas A&M
7. Washington, Minnesota, St. Mary's, Tennessee
8. Cincinnati, Old Dominion, Florida St, Utah St
9. Richmond, Marquette, Xavier, St John's
10. Illinois, UNLV, Clemson, BC
11. George Mason, Oklahoma St, Memphis, Washington St
12. Va Tech, Kansas St, Georgia, Colorado St, UCLA, Oakland

New In: Kansas St, Colorado St, UCLA
New Out: Dayton, Maryland, Nebraska
Last 4 Out:
Next 4 Out:

Moving up (2+ lines): Georgetown, North Carolina, Florida, St. Mary's, Marquette
Moving down (2+lines): Villanova, Arizona, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Illinois, UNLV, Georgia

Other thoughts:

*I'll probably be flip-flopping SDSU and BYU right up until the final day. I think that BYU is better and has the better resume, but if SDSU goes 15-1 and BYU goes 14-2... Hopefully I'll be able to same-line them.

*The CAA is close to guaranteed two spots - this is what happens when you have two teams in and around the top 25 RPI. However, neither team can suffer bad losses - i.e. non-Bracketbuster, non-VCU losses.

*What would YOU do with Tennessee? They are so obviously good, and yet they tend to take the night off against bad teams. If you seed them high, then they'll underperform their seed and the committee will take heat. If you seed them low, they'll overperform their seed and the committee will take heat.

*Other hard teams to judge are Illinois, UNLV, Arizona, and Washington. Don't be surprised to see movement with those week to week, even without surprising results.

*So, I was wrong about how good Nebraska is. Oops.

Sunday, February 13, 2011

CJ's New Bracket is Up

Check it out on my side-page: Here

Few Notes:

- If ND wins out in the regular season they are a serious 1 seed contender
- Michigan State better start winning
- Ditto for the Shockers
- Butler is down to Horizon Tourney win or bust!

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

0-10 vs. the RPI top 50... and IN?

Thats the conundrum that I faced at the bottom of this bracket. I didn't really have many good choices - I'm predicting Maryland to be 0-10 vs. the RPI top 50, but 20-1 vs. RPI 50+ (including 6 wins over the RPI 50-100). Oklahoma St will be 5-9 vs. the RPI top 100, but has 3 bad losses. Of course, all teams have bad losses - Dayton has 4 of them. Kansas St is 1-8 against the RPI top 50. UCLA will be 19-12, 5-10 against the RPI top 100... but with a neutral site win against projected 2 seed BYU. A home win against the top two lines isn't rare - but a road/neutral win is something special.

Here is my bracket for this week. Through games of February 8.

(In order, the regional sites are Newark, Anaheim, San Antonio, New Orleans)

1: Ohio St, Pittsburgh, Texas, Kansas
2 Syracuse, BYU, Villanova, Duke
3: Kentucky, Purdue, SDSU, Notre Dame
4: Louisville, Arizona, UConn, Wisconsin
After last year 1-bid Pac-10 fiasco, I'll never underseed a Pac-10 team again. Also, everyone on the two line is still gunning for a one seed.

5: Texas A&M, Tennessee, Florida, Georgetown
6: West Virginia, Cincinnati, UNC, Vanderbilt
7: Temple, Missouri, Minnesota, Illinois
8: UNLV, Florida St, Richmond, Washington

Georgetown and Tennessee should absolutely fall on the same line. Also, one question is whether the committee will drop Minnesota for being a weaker team, despite their stockpile of good wins.

9: ODU, Nebraska, St. Mary's, Utah St
10: BC, St. John's, Georgia, Xavier
11: Memphis, Clemson, Marquette, George Mason
12: Va. Tech, Dayton/Ok St, Wash. St/Maryland, Belmont
I hate the bubble.

13: Wichita St, Butler, Oakland, Harvard
14: Fairfield, LBSU, Charleston, Kent St
15: N. Colorado, Murray St, CCU, Bucknell
16: SFA/Tx So, Hampton/FAU, CCSU, Vermont

First Four out: Kansas St, UCLA, Duquesne, Missouri St.
Next Four out: VCU, Colorado St, Alabama, Cal