Well had the right idea with the Pac-12 not being viewed as highly due to the lack of the OOC losses just picked the wrong Pac-12 team (USC vs ASU was close) but the committee got Syracuse vs Notre Dame wrong I can live with that.
WVU as the top 5 from the bottom 3 - tough beat here but part of the Big XII not getting respect without a rep on the committee
Providence as a 7 to a 10 - This is an example of me not realizing the lack of OOC wins for Providence, split vs the elite teams and then best non-conf win was Rider and 0-6 on road vs top 50, def a live and learn spot
Final score (barring me being bad at math)
66/68 in (3 points a piece) = 198
46/68 Exact seeds = 138
64/68 with 1 line = 18
Total score: 354
Monday, March 12, 2018
Sunday, March 11, 2018
The FINAL bracket
First want to apologize to all of you loyal readers, I definitely slacked on the updates this year, lot of it was work related and next year will get back to more regular updates.
The lack of regular season updates definitely has me less confident this year than in past years which is just another sign I gotta dedicate more time next year to this
Looking back at past years and where the committee has differed from consensus it's been by us (bracketologists as a group) overrating a conference because they all beat each other up and got RPI wins/losses vs each other... In the end, applying this idea to a particular conference is going to have me very different than most brackets this year. #Yolo
Note: Andy Katz report that the field is set pending Davidson-URI result confirms to me who the bubble team is but more on that later
1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
2 Seeds: North Carolina, Duke, Cincinnati, Purdue
3 Seeds: Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan,West Virginia
4 Seeds: Texas Tech, Arizona, Auburn, Gonzaga
5 Seeds: Wichita State, Clemson, Kentucky, Ohio State
6 Seeds: Houston, Florida, Arkansas, Miami FL
7 Seeds: TCU, Rhode Island, Texas AM, Providence
8 Seeds: Seton Hall, Nevada, Virginia Tech, Creighton
9 Seeds: Missouri, Butler, Alabama, Kansas State
10 Seeds: Florida State, NC State, Oklahoma, USC
11 Seeds: St. Bonaventure, Texas, Notre Dame, St. Mary's, UCLA, New Mexico State
12 Seeds: Loyola-Chicago, San Diego State, South Dakota State, Buffalo
13 Seeds: Murray State, UNC-Greensboro, College of Charleston, Marshall
14 Seeds: Montana, Bucknell, Wright State, Stephen F. Austin,
15 Seeds: Georgia State, Penn, Lipscomb, UM-Baltimore County
16 Seeds: CS-Fullerton, Iona, Radford, LIU-Brooklyn, Texas Southern, NC Central
Conditions:
If Houston wins the AAC title they move up to the 5 line and Ohio State moves to the 6 line
If Davidson wins the A10 Title, they go to the 12 line, Loyola-Chicago to the 11 line and St. Mary's OUT
If Harvard wins the Ivy, they take Penn's spot on the 15 line
If Texas-Arlington wins the Sun Belt, they take Georgia State's spot on the 15 line
I came into this bubble picture ready to punish the Pac 12 because it didn't have the non-conf wins but when I looked at the committee members and noticed that the Big 12 didn't have a rep on the committee it got interesting for a couple bubble teams but in the end Texas and Oklahoma's resumes were too good to exclude
Notre Dame is the reach here and maybe it's me being too much of a homer but with all the midwest ties on the committee and former ND athletic director Kevin White on the committee I think ND sneaks in and goes to Dayton (where a team that good and it's resume deserves to go).
St. Mary's vs UCLA was really close and changed my mind multiple times on who gets bounced if Davidson wins but in the end St. Mary's just didn't schedule in the non-conf and I think that's the difference
The lack of regular season updates definitely has me less confident this year than in past years which is just another sign I gotta dedicate more time next year to this
Looking back at past years and where the committee has differed from consensus it's been by us (bracketologists as a group) overrating a conference because they all beat each other up and got RPI wins/losses vs each other... In the end, applying this idea to a particular conference is going to have me very different than most brackets this year. #Yolo
Note: Andy Katz report that the field is set pending Davidson-URI result confirms to me who the bubble team is but more on that later
1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
2 Seeds: North Carolina, Duke, Cincinnati, Purdue
3 Seeds: Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan,West Virginia
4 Seeds: Texas Tech, Arizona, Auburn, Gonzaga
5 Seeds: Wichita State, Clemson, Kentucky, Ohio State
6 Seeds: Houston, Florida, Arkansas, Miami FL
7 Seeds: TCU, Rhode Island, Texas AM, Providence
8 Seeds: Seton Hall, Nevada, Virginia Tech, Creighton
9 Seeds: Missouri, Butler, Alabama, Kansas State
10 Seeds: Florida State, NC State, Oklahoma, USC
11 Seeds: St. Bonaventure, Texas, Notre Dame, St. Mary's, UCLA, New Mexico State
12 Seeds: Loyola-Chicago, San Diego State, South Dakota State, Buffalo
13 Seeds: Murray State, UNC-Greensboro, College of Charleston, Marshall
14 Seeds: Montana, Bucknell, Wright State, Stephen F. Austin,
15 Seeds: Georgia State, Penn, Lipscomb, UM-Baltimore County
16 Seeds: CS-Fullerton, Iona, Radford, LIU-Brooklyn, Texas Southern, NC Central
Conditions:
If Houston wins the AAC title they move up to the 5 line and Ohio State moves to the 6 line
If Davidson wins the A10 Title, they go to the 12 line, Loyola-Chicago to the 11 line and St. Mary's OUT
If Harvard wins the Ivy, they take Penn's spot on the 15 line
If Texas-Arlington wins the Sun Belt, they take Georgia State's spot on the 15 line
I came into this bubble picture ready to punish the Pac 12 because it didn't have the non-conf wins but when I looked at the committee members and noticed that the Big 12 didn't have a rep on the committee it got interesting for a couple bubble teams but in the end Texas and Oklahoma's resumes were too good to exclude
Notre Dame is the reach here and maybe it's me being too much of a homer but with all the midwest ties on the committee and former ND athletic director Kevin White on the committee I think ND sneaks in and goes to Dayton (where a team that good and it's resume deserves to go).
St. Mary's vs UCLA was really close and changed my mind multiple times on who gets bounced if Davidson wins but in the end St. Mary's just didn't schedule in the non-conf and I think that's the difference
Wednesday, March 7, 2018
March is HERE!
Been insane year and haven't done enough of these, but we'll have updates all the way through Sunday, and as always can tweet questions to @BBracketologist
1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2 Seeds: Duke, Purdue, North Carolina, Cincinnati
3 Seeds: Auburn, Michigan State, Michigan, Texas Tech
4 Seeds: Tennessee, Wichita State, West Virginia, Arizona
5 Seeds: Gonzaga, Clemson, Ohio State, Kentucky
6 Seeds: Florida, TCU, Miami FL, Texas AM
7 Seeds: Houston, Arkansas Nevada Seton Hall
8 Seeds: Missouri, Creighton, URI, Virginia Tech
9 Seeds: Oklahoma, NC State, Florida State, Butler
10 Seeds: St. Bonaventure, Kansas State, Arizona State, Texas
11 Seeds: UCLA, Providence, Marquette, Alabama, Notre Dame, USC
12 Seeds: Middle Tennesee, Loyola-Chicago, New Mexico State, Buffalo
13 Seeds: South Dakota State, Murray State, Vermont, UL-Lafayette
14 Seeds: College of Charleston, UNC-Greensboro, Montana, Bucknell
15 Seeds: UC-Davis, Wright State, Penn, Lipscomb
16 Seeds: Iona, Radford, Nicholls State, LIU-Brooklyn, Hampton, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Why Notre Dame?
This team is right there with all the bubble teams but won Maui Invitational (33/35 Maui winners have made the tournament) and then lost preseason ACC player of the year majority of conference year. I think ND's elite wins early in the year combined with beating another tournament team in Virginia Tech is enough to ensure a date in Dayton (ND's resume is exactly why we have the play-in)
1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2 Seeds: Duke, Purdue, North Carolina, Cincinnati
3 Seeds: Auburn, Michigan State, Michigan, Texas Tech
4 Seeds: Tennessee, Wichita State, West Virginia, Arizona
5 Seeds: Gonzaga, Clemson, Ohio State, Kentucky
6 Seeds: Florida, TCU, Miami FL, Texas AM
7 Seeds: Houston, Arkansas Nevada Seton Hall
8 Seeds: Missouri, Creighton, URI, Virginia Tech
9 Seeds: Oklahoma, NC State, Florida State, Butler
10 Seeds: St. Bonaventure, Kansas State, Arizona State, Texas
11 Seeds: UCLA, Providence, Marquette, Alabama, Notre Dame, USC
12 Seeds: Middle Tennesee, Loyola-Chicago, New Mexico State, Buffalo
13 Seeds: South Dakota State, Murray State, Vermont, UL-Lafayette
14 Seeds: College of Charleston, UNC-Greensboro, Montana, Bucknell
15 Seeds: UC-Davis, Wright State, Penn, Lipscomb
16 Seeds: Iona, Radford, Nicholls State, LIU-Brooklyn, Hampton, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Why Notre Dame?
This team is right there with all the bubble teams but won Maui Invitational (33/35 Maui winners have made the tournament) and then lost preseason ACC player of the year majority of conference year. I think ND's elite wins early in the year combined with beating another tournament team in Virginia Tech is enough to ensure a date in Dayton (ND's resume is exactly why we have the play-in)
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