3/13 FINAL BRACKET

 

1 Seeds: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, Baylor

2 Seeds: Kentucky, Auburn, Duke, Purdue

3 Seeds: Tennessee, Villanova, Wisconsin, UCLA

4 Seeds: Texas Tech, Illinois, Providence, UCONN

5 Seeds: Arkansas, Houston, Saint Mary’s, Colorado State

6 Seeds: LSU, Alabama, Iowa, Texas

7 Seeds: USC, Boise State, Michigan State, Murray State

8 Seeds: San Diego State, Ohio State, Seton Hall, TCU

9 Seeds: UNC, Creighton, Memphis, Iowa State

10 Seeds: Marquette, San Francisco, Loyola-Chicago, Davidson

11 Seeds: Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, Michigan, Wyoming, Indiana

12 Seeds: Richmond, UAB, South Dkaota State, Notre Dame, Xavier

13 Seeds: Chattanooga, New Mexico State, Vermont, Yale

14 Seeds: Akron, Montana State, Colgate, Longwood

15 Seeds: St. Peters, Delaware, Jacksonville State, Georgia State

16 Seeeds: Cal State Fullerton, Norfolk State, Bryant, Wright State, Texas Southern, Texas AM – Corpus Chrisiti

Last 4 Byes: San Francisco, Davidson, Miami FL, Michigan

Last 4 In: Wyoming, Indiana, Notre Dame, Xavier

First 3 Out: Rutgers, Texas A&M, SMU

Notes:

• I think this is between Indiana, ND, Xavier, Rutgers, TAMU, SMU for the last three spots

• How much the committee excuses weak non-conf schedules because of COVID will dictate these final few spots. No excuses means that Xavier and ND look better, without it Rutgers and Texas A&M sneak in.

2022 3/12 Bracket

 In future years you will find my brackets over at Fantasy Guru (and for the rest of this season as well as here so save the URL now, I'll be doing preview guide for the tournament over there so check it out!), the brackets will remain free obviously!

https://www.fantasyguru.com/cjs-projected-march-madness-bracket/

Updated 3/12/2022

1 Seeds: Baylor, Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas

2 Seeds: Auburn, Kentucky, Duke, Villanova

3 Seeds: Wisconsin, Tennessee, Purdue, UCLA

4 Seeds: Providence, Texas Tech, Illinois, Arkansas

5 Seeds: SMC, Houston, Texas, UConn

6 Seeds: LSU, Alabama, Ohio State, Iowa

7 Seeds: USC, Colorado State, Seton Hall, Boise State

8 Seeds: Murray State, TCU, Iowa State, Michigan State

9 Seeds: Creighton, San Diego State, Marquette, UNC

10 Seeds: Davidson, Memphis, San Francisco , Loyola-Chicago,

11 Seeds: Michigan, Miami FL, Notre Dame , Wyoming

12 Seeds: Indiana, Xavier, Rutgers, SMU, South Dakota State, UAB

13 Seeds: Chattanooga, Vermont, New Mexico State, Kent State

14 Seeds: Princeton, Montana State, Longwood, Delaware

15 Seeds: Colgate, St. Peter’s, Long Beach State, Jacksonville State

16 Seeds: Georgia State, Norfolk State, Bryant, Wright State, Alcorn State, Southeastern Louisiana

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Last 4 Byes: Michigan, Miami FL, Wyoming, Notre Dame
Last 4 In: Indiana, Xavier, Rutgers, SMU
First 4 Out: Wake Forest, VCU, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma

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Notes:

• Lots of bid thief’s left so this bubble could get very tight.

• San Francisco got very lucky that entire bubble lost early in their conference tournament, despite just meeting expectations they have moved up from the last update.

2022 3/8 Bracket

 In future years you will find my brackets over at Fantasy Guru (and for the rest of this season as well as here so save the URL now, I'll be doing preview guide for the tournament over there so check it out!), the brackets will remain free obviously!

https://www.fantasyguru.com/cjs-projected-march-madness-bracket/

 

1 Seeds: Baylor, Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas

2 Seeds: Auburn, Kentucky, Duke, Wisconsin

3 Seeds: Villanova, Tennessee, Purdue, Providence

4 Seeds: UCLA, Texas Tech, Illinois, Arkansas

5 Seeds: SMC, Houston, Texas, UConn

6 Seeds: LSU, Alabama, Ohio State, Iowa

7 Seeds: USC, Colorado State, Seton Hall, Boise State

8 Seeds: Murray State, Marquette, Iowa State, Michigan State

9 Seeds: Creighton, SDSU, TCU, UNC

10 Seeds: Davidson, Memphis, Wake Forest, Notre Dame,

11 Seeds: Michigan, Miami FL, Loyola-Chicago, Wyoming

12 Seeds: San Francisco, Xavier, Rutgers, SMU, North Texas, South Dakota State

13 Seeds: Chattanooga, Iona, Toledo, Vermont

14 Seeds: New Mexico State, Princeton, Montana State, Colgate

15 Seeds: UNC-Wilmington, Long Beach State, Longwood, Georgia State

16 Seeds: Jacksonville, Norfolk State, Nicholls State, Bryant, Alcorn State, Wright State

 

Last 4 Byes:  Notre Dame, Michigan, Miami FL, Wyoming

Last 4 In: San Francisco, Xavier, Rutgers, SMU

First 4 Out: Indiana, VCU, Dayton, BYU

 

 

Notes:

Pretty strong divide between SMU and these bubble teams in terms of win quality, felt more comfortable with this field than maybe ever before. Bids will get stolen to shrink the bubble but right now it felt like an easy divide.

The resume I disagreed most with vs consensus is San Francisco, with no wins over tournament teams I’m just not sure why they are being mocked on the 9/10 line. I get the metrics like them but don’t you have to beat someone in the field to have lock status?

7-12 Seeds could go in any direction based on conference tournaments so a TON to still be decided.

2022 3/1 Bracket

 

3/1 Bracket

 

It’s March and that means BRACKET time, as always this is my bracket if the tournament started today. Let’s get into it!

 

1 Seeds: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, Baylor

2 Seeds: Auburn, Kentucky, Duke, Purdue

3 Seeds: Texas Tech, Villanova, Tennessee, Providence

4 Seeds: Wisconsin, Illinois, UCLA, Houston

5 Seeds: UConn, Texas, Arkansas, Ohio State

6 Seeds: SMC, USC, LSU, Alabama

7 Seeds: Michigan State, Iowa, Marquette, Colorado State

8 Seeds: Iowa State, Boise State, Seton Hall, TCU

9 Seeds: Murray State, Xavier, Wyoming, Notre Dame

10 Seeds: San Francisco, Davidson, Wake Forest, San Diego State

11 Seeds: Miami, UNC, Michigan, Memphis, Creighton

12 Seeds: Loyola Chicago, North Texas, Iona, Indiana, BYU

13 Seeds: South Dakota State, Chattanooga, Vermont, Toledo

14 Seeds: New Mexico State, Townson, Princeton, Texas State

15 Seeds: Montana State, Jacksonville State, Long Beach State, Longwood

16 Seeds: Colgate, Bryant, Cleveland State, Norfolk State, Nicholls State, Texas Southern

 

Also Considered: SMU, VCU, Rutgers, Florida, St. Bonaventure, UAB

 

Notes:

-          If the bubble feels tighter than last year remember there is actually one less at-large spot with the Ivy playing basketball this year (so for once not a figment of imagination)

-          The last team that I would say is a lock is SDSU, everyone after that could lose their way out of the tournament

-          BYU is in the field but not sure how they stay in without winning the WCC Tournament. As the 5 seed they have to avoid the bad loss to the 8/9 winner, then have to beat San Fran and Gonzaga to feel good about their chances for at large. At that point I’d recommend just beating SMC to take the stress out.

All eyes this week on the Ohio Valley tournament where Murray State has a bid locked up win or lose so if they lose in the conference tournament that is one at-large spot that will disappear. 

 

Note there is a chance my future brackets move to my day job over at FantasyGuru.com but I'll post all the links you'll need here when that happens!

 

As always see how I stand up over at bracketmatrix.com 

3/14 Final Bracket

 Well it's been forever but we are back on Selection Sunday. As always I'll list all the teams with the seed liens and then do the first four out and how selection committee could take them over my last teams in the field. 

1 Seeds: Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan

2 Seeds: Ohio State, Alabama, Iowa, Houston

3 Seeds: Oklahoma State, Texas, Kansas, Arkansas

4 Seeds: West Virginia, Virginia, Villanova, Purdue

5 Seeds: Florida State, Creighton, Tennessee, Missouri

6 Seeds: USC, BYU, Texas Tech, Colorado

7 Seeds: Oklahoma, LSU, Clemson, Wisconsin

8 Seeds: Oregon, San Diego State, Florida, UConn

9 Seeds: St. Bonaventure, Loyola-Chicago, Georgia Tech, Rutgers

10 Seeds: North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Michigan State

11 Seeds: VCU, Louisville, Syracuse, Wichita, Saint Louis, Utah State

12 Seeds: Georgetown, Oregon State, North Texas, Winthrop

13 Seeds: Colgate, UC-Santa Barbara, Ohio, Liberty

14 Seeds: UNC-Greensboro, Abilene Christian, Morehead State, Eastern Washington

15 Seeds: Grand Canyon, Cleveland State, Drexel, Oral Roberts

16 Seeds: Iona, Hartford, App State, Mount St. Mary's, Norfolk State, Texas Southern

Should Cincy pull off a miracle: They go onto the 13 line, moving Colgate up to the 12 line, Georgetown to the 11 line and removing Utah State from the field

First Four Out: UCLA, Drake, Colorado State, Ole Miss

Notes

- After Michigan State none of these teams have any gripes if they miss, it's a big resume drop-off after that. 

- With that being said I think we see the committee do something whacky out of nowhere... I'll go through the candidates and how they get there (last teams in and first teams out in no particular order):

1) UCLA - Committee ignores fact Chris Smith is out for the season, lost their best Q1 chances with him, best win vs Colorado... basically accepts analytics that like them cause of lack of Q4 games

2) Wichita State - split vs Houston best win of any of these teams and committee ignores eye test from AAC tournament

3) Colorado State - Committee acknowledges whacky COVID season led to them not getting any Q1 chances at home thanks to back to back schedule of MW Conference... splits vs SDSU/Utah State solid on road

4) Ole Miss - honestly no idea how they get in... bad common record vs SLU, H2H loss to Wichita State, and just a lot of losses 

5) Drake - committee ignores fact that best non-conf game vs 178 NET and played 2 non D-1 games and accepts it because of COVID... thinks 1-2 vs Loyola-Chicago okay with all H/N games

6) Saint Louis - committee gives them a pass for 2 Q3 losses coming off of 5 week COVID break, 4-0 vs Q1/Q2 at home best record of the bunch

7) Louisville - This resume is basically Syracuse just with a win over Duke? Does that really push you over the edge? Louisville had chances at home Syracuse didn't... wins over Tech's are nice but is that NCAA safety worthy?

8) Syracuse - Never got opps for Q1 at home, 1-7 on road in Q1 isn't great but lots of tournament teams with similar Q1 records on the road. Decent home wins vs mid-level NCAA seeds... should prolly be good enough but you can see committee saying you had enough chances lets give these teams who didn't have them a shot in Dayton

9) Utah State - best wins all at home... had chances for Q1 wins on N/A settings and never got them. Did go 3-2 as well vs Q1/Q2 at home... Did schedule in non-conf and was competitive but do have the bad losses too... 

Things to look at early for bubble prospects

1) Pac-12 seedings... does USC get a 5 seed? Do they fall farther? USC on the 6 line and Colorado on the 7 line would be very dangerous stuff for UCLA

2) MW Seedings... how high does SDSU get

3) A-10: How high does St. Bonaventure go?

What did I get right vs wrong? Leave them in the comments section

3/13 Bracket

1 Seeds: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois

2 Seeds: Alabama, Iowa, Ohio State, Houston

3 Seeds: Arkansas, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State

4 Seeds: Villanova, WVU, Virginia, Florida State

5 Seeds: Purdue, USC, Creighton, Tennessee

6 Seeds: Texas Tech, Colorado, BYU, Missouri

7 Seeds: Oklahoma, Oregon, Clemson, San Diego State

8 Seeds: Wisconsin, Florida, Loyola-Chicago, LSU

9 Seeds: VT, UConn, UNC, St. Bonaventure

10 Seeds: Rutgers, VCU, GT, Maryland

11 Seeds: Michigan State, Wichita State, Louisville, Drake

12 Seeds: Utah State, Saint Louis, Syracuse, UCLA,Winthrop, Western Kentucky

13 Seeds:  UC-Santa Barbara, Colgate, Liberty, UNC-Greensboro

14 Seeds: Buffalo, Abilene Christian, Morehead State, Eastern Washington

15 Seeds: Grand Canyon, Cleveland State, Drexel, Oral Roberts

16 Seeds: Iona, Hartford, Mount St. Mary's, Prairie View AM, App State, Norfolk State

First 4 Out: Colorado State, Ole Miss  Xavier, Boise State

 

UCLA vs Colorado State is interesting. MW Commish on committee and no Pac-12 rep... might flip it before the final run. 

 Oregon State + Georgetown can steal bids to shrink the bubble. 

3/11 Bracket

3/11 Bracket

1 Seeds: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois

2 Seeds: Alabama, Iowa, Ohio State, Houston

3 Seeds: Arkansas Kansas, WVU, Oklahoma State

4 Seeds: Villanova, Texas, Virginia, USC

5 Seeds: Purdue, Florida State, Creighton, Tennessee

6 Seeds: Texas Tech, Colorado, BYU, Missouri

7 Seeds: Oklahoma, Oregon, Clemson, San Diego State

8 Seeds: Wisconsin, Florida, Loyola-Chicago, LSU

9 Seeds: VT, Uconn, UNC, St. Bonaventure

10 Seeds: Rutgers, VCU, GT, Maryland

11 Seeds: Michigan State, Wichita State, Louisville, Drake

12 Seeds: Utah State, Colorado State, Ole Miss, Saint Louis, Winthrop, Western Kentucky

13 Seeds: Toledo, UC-Santa Barbara, Colgate, Liberty

14 Seeds: UNC-Greensboro, Abilene Christian, Morehead State, Southern Utah

15 Seeds: Grand Canyon, Cleveland State, Drexel, Iona

16 Seeds: Oral Roberts, Hartford, Appalachian State, Mount St. Mary's, Prairie View AM, Coppin State

 First 4 Out: UCLA, Syracuse, Xavier, Boise State

Notes:

You could tell me any of the 12 seeds should be out and either UCLA or Cuse be in, it's razor thin... UCLA has 1 win vs a tournament team and that was Jan 2nd... St. Louis has 2 wins vs teams in white jerseys in NCAA, same with Ole Miss... gave them the benefit of the doubt.