Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Mid-December Bracket- CJ

Lots of exciting early season basketball and a lot of changes since the preseason... Just a few notes

The A-10 will be here to stay- Xavier won the big games in the non-conf to improve their SOS and RPI numbers, SLU's win vs Washington will look amazing come march, St. Joes is doing well

The Big East is down- ND losing Abro killed their season, Nova is another season away, and there are no bottom dwellers with upside to crack the tourney... BE might be lucky to get 8 bids this year

Kansas will be seeded better in March due to their RPI- ridiculous non-conf will help come seeding in March, Im going to seed them 1 line higher than I think for the whole year cause I will underrate their CPU numbers

With that, the Dec. 15th projections:

1. Cuse, OSU, UK, UNC
2. Duke, Louisville, Xavier, Baylor
3. Marquette, UConn, Kansas, Wisconsin
4. Missouri, Florida, Pitt, Alabama
5. Georgetown, Michigan, Michigan State, UNLV
6. Indiana, Miss St, Saint Louis, Creighton
7. Vanderbilt, Memphis, Illinois, Cal
8. Gonzaga, Purdue, Harvard, Arizona
9. Stanford, FSU, SDSU, Minnesota
10. UVA, Central Florida, Northwestern, Northern Iowa
11. Kansas State, Virginia Tech, Wichita St, Washington
12. West Virginia-St. Joe’s, Cleveland State, Temple, St. Mary’s-BYU
13. Murray State, Iona, Belmont, George Mason
14. Kent State, Long Beach State, Denver, Davidson,
15. New Mexico State, Oakland, Bucknell, Weber State
16. Coastal Carolina, Lamar, Vermont-Norfolk St., Robert Morris-Alabama A&M

Comments as usual appreciated... start looking for weekly updates starting around the new year, with the weekly chat coming back too!

Friday, November 18, 2011

Early Season Tournaments: Do they matter?

As tournament season is underway its time to look at what the NCAA tournament committee did last year (as bad as they did) and see how they valued Early Season Tournaments and the non-conference in general

Old Dominion had wins vs Xavier, Clemson and Richmond in the non-conf in November (as well as losses N-GTown and @ Mizzou) yet come tournament time despite their 27-6 record didn't even get to wear the white jerseys...

Another 9 seed Illinois, only beat 1 NCAA team (Oakland) in non-conference play, but despite their .500 record in conference play somehow was also a 9 seed

This carries down to the bubble as well Georgia didn't beat a NCAA team in the non-conf but going 9-7 in the SEC was good enough but FSU played 4 Top-10 teams and ended up on the same seed line...

Conclusion: If your wearing dark jerseys, don't look at the non-conference

Next Time: Does it matter for white jersey seedS?

Monday, September 19, 2011

Preseason Bracketology-CJ

Well after another spring/summer to digest what went wrong I've got a few things I'm going to note here about last years bracket:

1) It was the worst job by the committee in NCAA history...this has been supported by basketball coaches, players, and analysts... so I'm not going to change my methodology one bit and hope the NCAA comes around

2) I had the right idea for the play-in games: Give teams who have one glaring weakness but pass the eye test to pass the weakness and get into the field: I had Harvard/SMC and they chose UAB/VCU... and I had Colorado as the big conf team with the hole and they chose USC...

3) Late season is overrated... late season is overrated...

4) Winning a conference means something even though it shouldn't...

We'll see if come March I'll listen to myself on these factoids but they should be taken into account.

Now for the Preseason Seed List:

1. North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky, Arizona
2. Ohio State, Pitt, Louisville UConn
3. Syracuse, Florida, Xavier, Temple
4. Vanderbilt, Gonzaga, Purdue, Wisconsin
5. Miami (FL), UNLV, Memphis, Baylor
6. Cincy, Marquette, Kansas, Michigan
7. Wichita State, Virginia Tech, Missouri, Clemson
8. BYU, WVU, Texas, KSU
9. UCLA, New Mexico, Alabama, George Mason
10. Belmont, Washington, Cal, Notre Dame
11. Michigan State, Florida State, Texas A&M, Northwestern
12. Arkansas, Harvard, Southern Cal/SMC, Nova/Illinois
13. St. Johns, Butler, Iona, Bucknell
14. New Mexico St., Davidson, Austin Peay, Long Beach State
15. Akron, UNC-Ashville, South Dakota State, Montana
16. Boston Univesity, Robert Morris, Miss. Valley St./Morgan St., Middle Tenn/UT-San Antonio

Notes after making this bracket on what will be different in March

More Teams: Big East, Big X, Missouri Valley
Less Teams: ACC, SEC, Pac-12

Be back to update this as injuries and transfer news comes out

Sunday, March 13, 2011

CJ's Seed List- FINAL

1 Ohio St, Kansas, Notre Dame, Pitt
2 Duke, North Carolina, Texas, BYU
3 UConn, Syracuse, Florida, SDSU
4 Purdue, Louisville, Wisconsin, Kentucky
5 St. John's, Vandy, WVU, Kansas St.
6 ODU, Georgetown, Cincy, Arizona
7 Xavier, Texas A&M, Utah St., George Mason
8 UNLV, Missouri, UCLA, Temple
9 Richmond, Washington, Michigan State, Tennessee
10 Villanova, Marquette, Illinois, Colorado
11 Gonzaga, Butler, Michigan, Virginia Tech
12 Penn State, Florida State-SMC, Memphis, Georgia-Harvard
13 Belmont, Oakland, Princeton, Indiana St
14 Morehead St, Bucknell, St. Peter's, Akron
15 Long Island, Northern Colorado, Wofford, UC-Santa Barbara
16 Boston University,NC-Asheville, Hampton/Alabama St, UA-Little Rock/UTSA

Bryce's Seed List - Final

1. Ohio St., Kansas, Notre Dame, Pitt
2. Duke, UNC, Texas, Syracuse
3. Connecticut, BYU, SDSU,Florida
4. Kentucky, Purdue, Louisville, Wisconsin
5. St. John's, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Kansas St.
6. Georgetown, Old Dominion, Cincinnati, Xavier
7. Arizona, Texas A&M, Utah St, UNLV
8. George Mason, Tennessee, UCLA, Temple
9. Richmond, Washington, Michigan St, Missouri
10. Villanova, Marquette, Colorado, Michigan
11. Illinois, Memphis, Gonzaga, Penn State
12. Va Tech, Butler, Harvard vs. Florida St, Georgia vs. BC
13. Belmont, Princeton, Oakland, Indiana St
14. Long Island, Morehead St, Bucknell, St. Peter's
15. Northern Colorado, Wofford, Akron, UCSB
16. UNC-A, Boston U, Hampton vs. Alabama St, UA-LR, UT-SA

First Four out: SMC, Alabama, Clemson, USC

NCAA Tournament 2011 Predicted Bracket

Edit: Sorry for the late edit, swapped UCSB and BU

Selection Sunday Chat

Where I'm starting Today-CJ

1 Ohio St, Kansas, Notre Dame, Pitt
2 Duke, North Carolina, Texas, BYU
3 UConn, Syracuse, Florida, SDSU
4 Purdue, Louisville, Wisconsin, Kentucky
5 St. John's, Vandy, WVU, Kansas St.
6 ODU, Georgetown, Cincy, Xavier
7 Arizona, Texas A&M, Utah St., UNLV
8 George Mason, Tennessee, UCLA, Temple
9 Richmond, Washington, Michigan State, Missouri
10 Villanova, Marquette, Illinois, Colorado
11 Florida St, Gonzaga, Butler, Michigan
12 Virginia Tech, Penn State-Georgia, Memphis, Belmont
13 Harvard-Clemson, Oakland, Princeton, Indiana St
14 Long Island, Morehead St, Bucknell, St. Peter's
15 Northern Colorado, Wofford, Boston University, Akron
16 UCSB, UNCA, Hampton/Alabama St, UA-Little Rock/UTSA

Saturday, March 12, 2011

21.5 hours to Selection Sunday

Here's how I see things shaking out:

1 Ohio St, Kansas, Notre Dame, Pitt
2 Duke, North Carolina, Texas, Syracuse
3 BYU, Uconn, Purdue, Florida
4 SDSU, Louisville, Wisconsin, Kentucky
5 St. John's, Vandy, WVU, Kansas St.
6 G'town, ODU, Cincy, Xavier
7 Arizona, Texas A&M, Utah St., UNLV
8 George Mason, Tennessee, UCLA, Temple
9 Richmond, Washington, Villanova, Missouri
10 Michigan St, Marquette, Illinois, Butler
11 Florida St, Colorado, Gonzaga, Va Tech
12 Michigan, Penn State, Harvard-Clemson, Memphis, Belmont
13 St. Mary's-BC, Oakland, Princeton, Indiana St
14 Long Island, Morehead St, Bucknell, Long Beach St
15 St. Peters, Northern Colorado, Wofford, Akron
16 Boston U, UNCA, Hampton/Alabama St, UA-Little Rock/UTSA

First Four Out: Alabama, Georgia, USC, Princeton
Next Four Out: UAB, Washington St, Nebraska, VCU

EDIT: Yes, Princeton in the first four out is a joke. I was tired, and didn't feel like thinking about it.

Saturday Live NCAA Bracketology Chat

Friday, March 11, 2011

CJ's Seed List (Through 3/12 at 2:37AM)

As of 3/12/11 2:37 AM

1: Ohio State, Kansas, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh
2: Duke, UNC, BYU, Texas
3: Cuse, Purdue, Florida, UConn
4: SDSU, UL, Wisconsin, Kentucky
5: St. Johns, WVU, Vanderbilt, Kansas State
6: Old Dominion, Arizona, Georgetown, Cincinnati
7: George Mason, Utah State, Xavier, Texas A&M
8: UCLA, UNLV, Tenn, Missouri
9: Temple, Illinois, Washington, Richmond
10: Colorado, Gonzaga, Florida State, Villanova
11: Michigan State, Marquette, Butler, Michigan
12: Clemson, Virginia Tech/Saint Mary’s, BC/Bama, Harvard
13: UTEP, Belmont, Oakland, Indiana State
14: Bucknell, Kent State, Morehead State, Wofford
15: LIU, Long Beach State, St. Peter’s, Northern Colorado,
16: Boston University, Hampton, NC-Asheville/Grambling State, McNeese State, Arkansas-Little Rock

First Four Out: Georgia, Penn State, USC, UAB
Next Four Out: Princeton, Missouri State, Memphis, VCU

Bryce's Seed List

2:38 AM, March 12, 2011

1. Ohio St, Kansas, Notre Dame, Pitt
2. Duke, Texas, BYU, North Carolina
3. Syracuse, Purdue, Connecticut, San Diego St
4. Florida, Louisville, Wisconsin, Kentucky
5. Vanderbilt, St. John's, Kansas St, West Virginia
6. Old Dominion, Arizona, Cincinnati, Georgetown
7. Xavier, UNLV, Utah St, Texas A&M
8. George Mason, Temple, UCLA, Illinois
9. Villanova, Tennessee, Missouri, Washington
10. Richmond, Michigan St, Marquette, Florida St.
11. Colorado, Virginia Tech, Butler, Gonzaga
12. Harvard, Michigan, St. Mary's, BC, Belmont
13. UTEP, Clemson, Penn St., Oakland, Kent St
14. LIU, Morehead St, Indiana St, Bucknell
15. Long Beach St, St. Peters, N. Colorado, Wofford
16. Boston, UNC-A, Mcneese St, Hampton, UA-Little Rock, Grambling St.

First Four Out: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma St, USC
Next Four Out: UAB, Princeton, Wazzu, VCU

CJ's Seed List (Through 3/12 at 6pm)

CJ’s S-Curve List (Through last at-large)
1- Ohio State
2- Kansas
3- Notre Dame
4- Pitt

5- Duke
6- BYU
7- Texas
8- UNC

9- Purdue
10- Syracuse
11- Wisconsin
12- SDSU

13- UConn
14- Louisville
15- Florida
16- St. John’s

17- Vanderbilt
18- West Virginia
19- Kentucky
20- Kansas State

21- Georgetown
22- Arizona
23- Xavier
24- George Mason

25- Texas A&M
26- Cincy
27- Temple
28- Utah St.

29- UNLV
30- Missouri
31- Old Dominion
32- UCLA

33- Washington
34- Florida St.
35- Tennessee
36- Gonzaga

38- Villanova
39- Butler
40- Colorado

41- Michigan
42- Clemson
44- Illinois

45- Boston College
46- Michigan State
47- Saint Mary’s
48- Alabama
49- Virginia Tech

Bryce's Seedlist - 11:38 AM, March 11

Selection Sunday is but mere days away. The committee has probably already starting seeding the field, even though Duke and Ohio State have yet to play their first tournament game. Here is how I see the field shaping up. In this seed list, teams are in order in their lines.

1. Kansas, Ohio St, Notre Dame, Pitt
2. Duke, Syracuse, North Carolina, Texas
3. Purdue, BYU, San Diego St, Wisconsin
4. Florida, Connecticut, Kentucky, Louisville
5. St. John's, Arizona, Vanderbilt, Kansas St.
6. Georgetown, West Virginia, Old Dominion, Texas A&M
7. UNLV, Cincinnati, Xavier, Utah St
8. Temple, George Mason, UCLA, Tennessee
9. Villanova, Missouri, Illinois, Florida St
10. Washington, Richmond, Butler, Marquette
11. Georgia, Colorado, Gonzaga, Boston College
12. Va Tech, St. Mary's, Michigan, Memphis, Harvard
13. Michigan St, Clemson, Oakland, Belmont, Kent St.
14. LIU, Morehead St, Indiana St, Bucknell
15. LBSU, St. Peters, N. Colorado, Wofford
16. Boston U, UNC-A, Mcneese St, Hampton, Texas Southern, UA-LR

First Four Out: Oklahoma St, USC, UAB, Penn State
Next Four Out: Alabama, Washington, VCU, Nebraska

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

2nd Ballot- Consideration List

Considered List
Colorado St. (Just Bryce)
Florida St.
Illinois (Just CJ)
Maryland (Just Bryce)
Michigan St.
Missouri State (Just CJ)
Oklahoma St.
Penn St.
Princeton (Just CJ)
Saint Mary’s
Tennessee (Just CJ)
UNM (Just Bryce)
Va Tech
Villanova (Just Bryce)
Washington St.

Initial Ballot - CJ and Bryce

On Both Ballots
George Mason
Kansas St.
North Carolina
Notre Dame
Ohio St.
St. John's
Texas A&M
Utah St.
West Virginia

On CJ's Ballot only
Florida St.

On Bryce's Ballot only

Bryce's Note: So, I think Nova is a lock. However, I can imagine committee members seeing the continuation of their collapse last night, and deciding that they need to be looked at before getting locked into the field.

Automatic Bids
Belmont - Atlantic Sun
Butler - Horizon
Gonzaga - WCC
Indiana St - MVC
Morehead St - OVC
Oakland - Summit
Old Dominion - CAA
St. Peter's - MAAC
UA-Little Rock - Sun Belt
UNC-Asheville - Big South
Wofford - SoCon

Initial Ballot

The committee began their deliberations at noon today in Indianapolis, 3.5 hours ago. So, what are they doing right now? The first step in the selection process is the initial balloting. Each committee member submits two ballots. The first ballot is a list of all teams that should definitely be in the tournament, no matter what. This ballot has a maximum of 37 teams. Any team that receives at least all but 2 of the eligible votes is put into the tournament. The second ballot is a list of all teams that ought to be considered for the tournament.

CJ and I will each come up with our own ballots, and post them here sometime before 5.

Selection Committee Begins Meeting Today

Today is the day when the assorted members of the Selection Committee begin meeting. In the past, conferences and teams with a representative on the committee have generally seen a slight bump in seeding (unless you're the Mountain West), so it is worthwhile at this time to see who might benefit from this bump. (Information found on Bracketography - a site worth checking out).

Side Note: Committee members are required to leave the room whenever their team is part of a vote, so this bias does not occur directly. Instead, I believe it happens when each committee member feels that the absence of that member will lead to a bias against the team in question, and thus gives them a little extra credit when voting. Additionally, it is unclear to me whether committee members leave the room only for the school they currently have ties to, or any school that they have ever had ties to. This question has major ramifications for Notre Dame, who has THREE alums on the committee. I assume that schools in the same conference don't force a committee member to leave - otherwise, Hathaway (the UConn AD), won't be doing very much this week.

#1 - Gene Smith, AD, Ohio State. This year's committee chair managed to get a small bump for every non-Purdue Big 10 team last year - especially his own Buckeyes. If you don't think the Buckeyes are getting the #1 overall, you should consider this information. None of Smith's previous AD stops have a chance of reaching the tournament, but it is worth noting that he won a football national championship with Notre Dame.

#2 - Stanley Morrison, AD, UC-Riverside. Might make a difference on the 14-15 line, but doubtful. Also played for Cal, and coached at Southern Cal. I've seen no bumps based on previous stops, so I really don't think the Trojans are going to benefit.

#3 - Jeffrey Hathaway, AD, Connecticut. Expect to see UConn a line or two above where you might expect them, in deference to this man who leads the athletic department at one of the premier basketball schools in the country. He attended Maryland, which may get them some consideration, but there is probably no love there after Maryland took his head football coach this past winter.

#4 - Lynn Hickey, AD, UT-SA. The second woman ever on this committee. Her conference representative won't be her team, and seems destined for one of the play-in games. Nothing to see here.

#5 - Mike Bobinski, AD, Xavier. Over the past two years, I've missed on Xavier by a line too low. It probably is no coincidence that their AD happens to be on the selection committee. This bump has not appeared to carry over to the other A-10 teams, although his alma mater, Notre Dame, may have been the recipient of some bias last year, when they were criminally overseeded on the 6 line. He has previously worked at Akron and Navy, neither of which should be a factor this year.

#6 - Dan Beebe, Big 12 Commissioner. This is Beebe's second year on the committee, and this man is probably the most well know man on it. After successfully holding together the Big 12, he is in prime position to make the tournament paths of those teams just a bit easier. Will the football expansion fallout transfer over to Colorado and Nebraska, who will be leaving the conference at the end of this academic year? Since he's not actually allowed to vote on

#7 - Doug Fullerton, Big Sky Commissioner - Small conference commissioner. Might impact the bottom lines. I kind of doubt it..

#8 - Ron Wellman, AD, Wake Forest - While Wake Forest is nowhere near the tournament, this positions the ACC to perhaps get a little better positioning. In his second year on the committee, I can't imagine him being a major player.

#9 - Scott Barnes, AD, Utah State - This is a big one. One member of the committee will be out of the room for the discussion of one of the bigger seeding questions of this year's tournament - how do we deal with Utah State's gaudy record - and lack of big wins. How will the other committee members react? It'll be interesting to see if Utah St. gets any seeding bump. I also wonder if his presence on the committee could help St. Mary's, Utah State's signature win.

#10 - Steve Orsini, AD, Southern Methodist - Obviously, Southern Methodist is nowhere near the bracket. One question of interest, however, is whether this could help fellow C-USA members UAB, Memphis, or UTEP. While Memphis and UTEP probably need the auto-bid, UAB is definitely in the discussion to receive one of the last at-large slots. Also of note - Orsini is the third Notre Dame alum on the committee, having played on the 1977 football championship team.

Sunday, March 6, 2011

Bryce - One Week to Selection Sunday

EDIT: I altered this from my earlier seed list to reflect VCU's victory over George Mason

At this point, it is close enough to Selection Sunday that I feel comfortable doing my seed list as if today were Selection Sunday.

1. Kansas, Ohio St, Pitt, Notre Dame
2. North Carolina, Duke, BYU, Texas
3. Purdue, San Diego St, Florida, Syracuse
4. Wisconsin, Kentucky, St. John's, Louisville
5. Connecticut, Arizona, Vanderbilt, Kansas St.
6. Cincinnati, Georgetown, WVU, Texas A&M
7. UCLA, Old Dominion, Xavier, UNLV
8. Villanova, Temple, Utah St, Tennessee
9. George Mason, Missouri, Florida St, Illinois
10. Washington, Marquette, Colorado, Georgia
11. Nebraska, Memphis, Gonzaga, Richmond
12. Va Tech, Michigan, VCU, BC, Michigan St, Butler
13. Harvard, Belmont, Oakland

First Four Out: Oklahoma St, Alabama, Clemson, UAB
Next Four Out: Colorado St, New Mexico, Baylor, St. Mary's

Saturday, March 5, 2011

CJ's Seed List (Through 3/5/2011)

CJ’s S-Curve List
1- Ohio State
2- Kansas
3- Pitt
4- Notre Dame

5- Duke
6- BYU
7- Texas
8- Wisconsin

9- Purdue
10- SDSU
11- Syracuse
12- UNC

13- Florida
14- Louisville
15- St. Johns
16- Vanderbilt

17- UConn
18- West Virginia
19- Kentucky
20- Kansas State

21- Georgetown
22- Arizona
23- Xavier
24- George Mason

25- Texas A&M
26- Villanova
27- Temple
28- Cincy

29- Utah St.
30- UNLV
31- Missouri
32- Old Dominion

33- UCLA
34- Washington
35- Florida St.
36- Tennessee

37- Gonzaga
38- St. Mary’s
39- Butler
40- Michigan

41- Marquette
42- Richmond
43- Virginia Tech
44- Illinois

45- Boston College
46- Michigan State
47- Clemson
48- Georgia
49- Memphis
50- Belmont

51- Missouri State
52- Oakland
53- Princeton
54- Bucknell

55- Fairfield
56- Charleston
57- Vermont
58- Long Island

59- Kent State
60- Milwaukee
61- Long Beach
62- UNC-Ashville

63- Murray State
64- Florida Atlantic
65- Northern Colorado
66- Texas Southern
67- McNeese State
68- Bethune Cookman

Sunday, February 27, 2011

Bryce Seed List through February 27

Sorry it has been a while. Assumes Wisconsin, UNC, and Washington win tonight. Remember, I do mine as a projection through the end of the year.

1. Ohio St, Pitt, Kansas, BYU
2. Texas, Notre Dame, Duke, Purdue
3. SDSU, Syracuse, Wisconsin, North Carolina
4. Arizona, Florida, Kentucky, St. John's
5. Connecticut, Louisville, Missouri, Vanderbilt
6. Georgetown, Cincinnati, Texas A&M, Villanova
7. Temple, Old Dominion, WVU, Utah St
8. Washington, UNLV, UCLA, Xavier
9. George Mason, St. Mary's, Florida St, Richmond
10. Tennessee, Illinois, Virginia Tech, Kansas St
11. Marquette, Nebraska, Memphis, Gonzaga
12. Belmont, Michigan St, Oklahoma St, Clemson, Minnesota, VCU
13. Butler, Oakland, Wichita St, Harvard
14. Charleston, LBSU, Montana, Fairfield
15. Kent St, Bucknell, Vermont, Coastal Carolina
16. Long Island, Florida Atlantic, Murray St, Mcneese St, Hampton, Texas Southern

First four out: Georgia, Boston College, UAB, Maryland
Next four out: Michigan, Washington St, Mississippi, Drexel

New In: Nebraska, Gonzaga, Michigan St, VCU
New Out: Georgia, Colorado St, Washington St, Boston College

Moving Up: St. John's (5), UCLA (4), BYU, Arizona, Cincy, UNLV, GMU, VT, Kansas St (2)
Moving Down: Minnesota (5), Georgetown, Tennessee (3), Villanova, West Virginia, St. Mary's, Marquette, Clemson (2)

Big East: 11
Big 12: 7
Big 10: 6
ACC: 5
SEC: 4
Pac-10: 3
MWC: 3
A-10: 3
CAA: 3

Monday, February 21, 2011

Who's going to win the last spot on the...

1 Line- (Current Contenders: Duke, Kansas, SDSU/BYU)

With the rough weekend for the teams fighting to be the Big East #2 to fight for the 1 seed, for now we can take all of those guys off the contender list. Duke, while having the worst wins out of conference, has destroyed the medicore ACC and has looked pretty convincing in doing so. Their weakness shows however with the road destruction by St. Johns.

Kansas, who I project to finish 2nd in the Big X who has played pretty well, and had the best loss of all the contenders losing at Kansas State. However, if they don't win their conference I don't know if they will be able to argue that the Big 12 #2 is better than the ACC #1.

SDSU/BYU- Crushing all Mountain West conference competition, with the expected BYU loss at SDSU coming up it will be tough for one of these teams to make the climb.

VERDICT: It will be tough for Duke if ranked the #1 team in America to not get the 1 seed, but an ACC loss opens the door for a lot of teams... Pick: Duke


I will evaluate the battle for the last 2,3 and 4 seed!

Monday, February 14, 2011

Bearkats, Tigers, and Spartans

So, looking around at a couple of teams that other people disagree with me on.

Cincinnati - Currently 19-6, 6-6 in the Big East, Wins over XU and at St. John's. With their current resume, it is almost unthinkable to me that 64/65 brackets over at the Bracket Matrix have them in. I mean, its a crappy resume, and most of those brackets are "as of now" projections. However, I foresee Cincinnati winning at least 3 of their remaining games. If they get a two game separation from Seton Hall (projected team 12 in the Big East), they should get in, especially since that will require a win against someone in the Big East's Elite 6.

Clemson - Currently 17-8, 6-5 in the ACC. Best wins at home vs. Florida St and BC. Okay, so I goofed. I have two spreadsheets. I updated Clemson's resume to reflect the home loss to North Carolina in the main one (where I keep a list of the projected top 150 RPI teams, along with the record splits for the top 100), but not the one where I was doing the seed list. So, in my next seed list, expect Clemson to drop without that big win I had projected for them.

Michigan State - Currently 13-10, 6-6 in the Big 10. Best Wins: Wisconsin, Minnesota, vs. Washington. I predict that Michigan St will go 2-4 to end the year. The smallest separation between wins and losses for an at-large team in the past 4 years was Arizona 2007, who was 18-13 on selection Sunday. There was a huge outcry, and only 2 or 3 bracketologists (including me) had them in. Knowing what I do now, I might have left them out. This is relevant, because a 2-4 finish will put Michigan St at 15-14 and 8-10 in the Big 10. I think it is clear why I refuse to consider this team, despite the Izzo factor.

Bryce's New Seed List also up

I've got to run to class now, but you can find my new seed list on my page. Please remember that my seed list is a projected to March, not a reflection of the current state of things.

This spot is reserved for a proper write-up concerning the new seed list. I will tell you that I booted Maryland - I realized that if they don't get decent wins, they will not be in.

I'm only going down to seed 12 on this seed list, as those are the ones that move around.

1. Ohio St, Pitt, Texas, Kansas
2. Duke, SDSU, ND, Purdue
3. BYU, G'town, Kentucky, Syracuse
4. Louisville, Wisconsin, UNC, Villanova
5. WVU, UConn, Missouri, Florida
6. Arizona, Vanderbilt, Temple, Texas A&M
7. Washington, Minnesota, St. Mary's, Tennessee
8. Cincinnati, Old Dominion, Florida St, Utah St
9. Richmond, Marquette, Xavier, St John's
10. Illinois, UNLV, Clemson, BC
11. George Mason, Oklahoma St, Memphis, Washington St
12. Va Tech, Kansas St, Georgia, Colorado St, UCLA, Oakland

New In: Kansas St, Colorado St, UCLA
New Out: Dayton, Maryland, Nebraska
Last 4 Out:
Next 4 Out:

Moving up (2+ lines): Georgetown, North Carolina, Florida, St. Mary's, Marquette
Moving down (2+lines): Villanova, Arizona, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Illinois, UNLV, Georgia

Other thoughts:

*I'll probably be flip-flopping SDSU and BYU right up until the final day. I think that BYU is better and has the better resume, but if SDSU goes 15-1 and BYU goes 14-2... Hopefully I'll be able to same-line them.

*The CAA is close to guaranteed two spots - this is what happens when you have two teams in and around the top 25 RPI. However, neither team can suffer bad losses - i.e. non-Bracketbuster, non-VCU losses.

*What would YOU do with Tennessee? They are so obviously good, and yet they tend to take the night off against bad teams. If you seed them high, then they'll underperform their seed and the committee will take heat. If you seed them low, they'll overperform their seed and the committee will take heat.

*Other hard teams to judge are Illinois, UNLV, Arizona, and Washington. Don't be surprised to see movement with those week to week, even without surprising results.

*So, I was wrong about how good Nebraska is. Oops.

Sunday, February 13, 2011

CJ's New Bracket is Up

Check it out on my side-page: Here

Few Notes:

- If ND wins out in the regular season they are a serious 1 seed contender
- Michigan State better start winning
- Ditto for the Shockers
- Butler is down to Horizon Tourney win or bust!

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

0-10 vs. the RPI top 50... and IN?

Thats the conundrum that I faced at the bottom of this bracket. I didn't really have many good choices - I'm predicting Maryland to be 0-10 vs. the RPI top 50, but 20-1 vs. RPI 50+ (including 6 wins over the RPI 50-100). Oklahoma St will be 5-9 vs. the RPI top 100, but has 3 bad losses. Of course, all teams have bad losses - Dayton has 4 of them. Kansas St is 1-8 against the RPI top 50. UCLA will be 19-12, 5-10 against the RPI top 100... but with a neutral site win against projected 2 seed BYU. A home win against the top two lines isn't rare - but a road/neutral win is something special.

Here is my bracket for this week. Through games of February 8.

(In order, the regional sites are Newark, Anaheim, San Antonio, New Orleans)

1: Ohio St, Pittsburgh, Texas, Kansas
2 Syracuse, BYU, Villanova, Duke
3: Kentucky, Purdue, SDSU, Notre Dame
4: Louisville, Arizona, UConn, Wisconsin
After last year 1-bid Pac-10 fiasco, I'll never underseed a Pac-10 team again. Also, everyone on the two line is still gunning for a one seed.

5: Texas A&M, Tennessee, Florida, Georgetown
6: West Virginia, Cincinnati, UNC, Vanderbilt
7: Temple, Missouri, Minnesota, Illinois
8: UNLV, Florida St, Richmond, Washington

Georgetown and Tennessee should absolutely fall on the same line. Also, one question is whether the committee will drop Minnesota for being a weaker team, despite their stockpile of good wins.

9: ODU, Nebraska, St. Mary's, Utah St
10: BC, St. John's, Georgia, Xavier
11: Memphis, Clemson, Marquette, George Mason
12: Va. Tech, Dayton/Ok St, Wash. St/Maryland, Belmont
I hate the bubble.

13: Wichita St, Butler, Oakland, Harvard
14: Fairfield, LBSU, Charleston, Kent St
15: N. Colorado, Murray St, CCU, Bucknell
16: SFA/Tx So, Hampton/FAU, CCSU, Vermont

First Four out: Kansas St, UCLA, Duquesne, Missouri St.
Next Four out: VCU, Colorado St, Alabama, Cal

Sunday, January 30, 2011

Bryce is back/Seed List for January 30

EDIT: 10:17 PM ET - I forgot to enter WVU into the bracket originally, so I had to update this.

I've been trying to decide whether or not I wanted to do any posting this year. I do the brackets for myself, because I like to do it. However, I don't always like to put in the time to make posts on a blog. But, given that the major part of my energy goes into the brackets, and I'm already doing that.... well, I guess I'll start posting.

Keep in mind that these are my predictions for Selection Sunday, not a reflection of today. Also, I created this seed list while creating a bracket, and amended it accordingly. The ordering of team reflects regions, not relative strength.

1: Kansas (B12), Ohio St. (B10), Duke (ACC), Pitt (BE)
2: Kentucky (SEC), Texas, Villanova, SDSU (MWC)
3: Purdue, Syracuse, BYU, Texas A&M
4: Notre Dame, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Washington (P10)
5: Arizona, Vanderbilt, Louisville, Missouri
6: Tennessee, Richmond (A10), Florida, WVU
7: Georgetown, Florida St., Temple, Cincinnati
8: Illinois, St. Mary's (WCC), Nebraska, BC
9: North Carolina, UNLV, Georgia, Minnesota
10: Virginia Tech, Missouri St (MVC), Washington St., Clemson
11: George Mason (CAA), Virginia Commonwealth, St. John's, Michigan St.
12: Butler (Horizon), Oklahoma St/Maryland, Butler (Horizon), Marquette/Duquesne,
13: Oakland (Summit), Harvard (Ivy), Memphis (SB), Utah St (WAC)
14: LBSU (BW), Montana (BSky), Charleston (SoCon), Kent St (MAC)
15: Bucknell (Patriot), Coastal Carolina (BSouth), Fairfield (MAAC), LIU (NEC)
16: Hampton(MEAC)/AP (OVC), SFA (S land)/Tex. So. (SWAC), Vermont (AE), FAU (SB)