Well it's been forever but we are back on Selection Sunday. As always I'll list all the teams with the seed liens and then do the first four out and how selection committee could take them over my last teams in the field.
1 Seeds: Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan
2 Seeds: Ohio State, Alabama, Iowa, Houston
3 Seeds: Oklahoma State, Texas, Kansas, Arkansas
4 Seeds: West Virginia, Virginia, Villanova, Purdue
5 Seeds: Florida State, Creighton, Tennessee, Missouri
6 Seeds: USC, BYU, Texas Tech, Colorado
7 Seeds: Oklahoma, LSU, Clemson, Wisconsin
8 Seeds: Oregon, San Diego State, Florida, UConn
9 Seeds: St. Bonaventure, Loyola-Chicago, Georgia Tech, Rutgers
10 Seeds: North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Michigan State
11 Seeds: VCU, Louisville, Syracuse, Wichita, Saint Louis, Utah State
12 Seeds: Georgetown, Oregon State, North Texas, Winthrop
13 Seeds: Colgate, UC-Santa Barbara, Ohio, Liberty
14 Seeds: UNC-Greensboro, Abilene Christian, Morehead State, Eastern Washington
15 Seeds: Grand Canyon, Cleveland State, Drexel, Oral Roberts
16 Seeds: Iona, Hartford, App State, Mount St. Mary's, Norfolk State, Texas Southern
Should Cincy pull off a miracle: They go onto the 13 line, moving Colgate up to the 12 line, Georgetown to the 11 line and removing Utah State from the field
First Four Out: UCLA, Drake, Colorado State, Ole Miss
- After Michigan State none of these teams have any gripes if they miss, it's a big resume drop-off after that.
- With that being said I think we see the committee do something whacky out of nowhere... I'll go through the candidates and how they get there (last teams in and first teams out in no particular order):
1) UCLA - Committee ignores fact Chris Smith is out for the season, lost their best Q1 chances with him, best win vs Colorado... basically accepts analytics that like them cause of lack of Q4 games
2) Wichita State - split vs Houston best win of any of these teams and committee ignores eye test from AAC tournament
3) Colorado State - Committee acknowledges whacky COVID season led to them not getting any Q1 chances at home thanks to back to back schedule of MW Conference... splits vs SDSU/Utah State solid on road
4) Ole Miss - honestly no idea how they get in... bad common record vs SLU, H2H loss to Wichita State, and just a lot of losses
5) Drake - committee ignores fact that best non-conf game vs 178 NET and played 2 non D-1 games and accepts it because of COVID... thinks 1-2 vs Loyola-Chicago okay with all H/N games
6) Saint Louis - committee gives them a pass for 2 Q3 losses coming off of 5 week COVID break, 4-0 vs Q1/Q2 at home best record of the bunch
7) Louisville - This resume is basically Syracuse just with a win over Duke? Does that really push you over the edge? Louisville had chances at home Syracuse didn't... wins over Tech's are nice but is that NCAA safety worthy?
8) Syracuse - Never got opps for Q1 at home, 1-7 on road in Q1 isn't great but lots of tournament teams with similar Q1 records on the road. Decent home wins vs mid-level NCAA seeds... should prolly be good enough but you can see committee saying you had enough chances lets give these teams who didn't have them a shot in Dayton
9) Utah State - best wins all at home... had chances for Q1 wins on N/A settings and never got them. Did go 3-2 as well vs Q1/Q2 at home... Did schedule in non-conf and was competitive but do have the bad losses too...
Things to look at early for bubble prospects
1) Pac-12 seedings... does USC get a 5 seed? Do they fall farther? USC on the 6 line and Colorado on the 7 line would be very dangerous stuff for UCLA
2) MW Seedings... how high does SDSU get
3) A-10: How high does St. Bonaventure go?
What did I get right vs wrong? Leave them in the comments section