Sunday, February 28, 2010

Brackets are Up

Both CJ and I have posted our new individual brackets.

Both notably feature Notre Dame in, as seen here first in our consensus bracket last Wednesday. Mark my words - Joe Lunardi will have Notre Dame in on Selection Sunday; he's just too ashamed to have counted them without a chance in hell just one week ago (That goes for anyone who has them out right now).

Friday, February 26, 2010

Bracket Debate

So our bracket debate is finally up. We decided to summarize it this week, just in case you don’t want to take the time sorting our arguments. The bracket debate is time-stamped, so if you want to read what was actually said, we have provided the times when each area was discussed. Highlights are Nova/Purdue, Duke/Pitt, the merits of Florida, and the overwhelming suckage at the bottom of the at-large teams.

--1 Seeds--
10:10:58-10:25:18: Debating Villanova vs. Purdue for the final one seed. CJ questions Villanova’s numerous losses to elite teams; Bryce focuses on Purdue’s lack of wins. We conclude that if Nova finishes 14-4 in the Big East, they’ll get the one seed; and if they lose two games, they’ll be a two seed. Since we disagree on how many they will win, we decide to move on to the two line and revisit this debate later.

--2 Seeds--
10:33:06-10:35:40 (Is Pitt a 2?) : After agreeing upon Kansas St. as the second two seed, we get stuck with three candidates for two spots: Duke, Pitt, and West Virginia. CJ wants Duke and West Virginia; Bryce wants West Virginia and Pitt. Bryce argues that Pitt has winning road records over teams in top 50 and top 100 RPI, and shows how their overall categories match up with West Virginia. CJ focuses on their loss to IU and their blowout loss to Notre Dame, saying that “by that logic, Notre Dame would have to be in the field. And they’re not.” Bryce counters with Louisville’s one seed despite a similar loss last year.

10:37:03- 10:47:25 (Is Duke a 2?): Trying a different tack, Bryce argues that Duke is not on the two-line because they haven’t beaten anyone who will be in the top 5 lines. CJ believes that the sheer quantity of wins over tournament teams (8) and the lack of bad losses pushes Duke over Pitt. Bryce talks about Duke’s minimal road wins. CJ refuses to keep Duke off the two line, and offers to allow West Virginia onto the three line if Purdue gets to be the final one. We agree, thus finishing the top two lines… or so we think.

--In Defense of Texas--

10:47:49-10:56:52 (The 3 Line Defense): Bryce’s attempts to defend Texas as a three seed are mostly unsuccessful. He notes that Texas has 6 wins against the RPI top 50, 11 against the top 100. CJ keys on their potential 4-8 record in the last 12; Bryce thinks that will be closer to 6-6. Bryce counters he has evidence that last 12 record has no correlation to seed. CJ pulls out the “eye test”, claiming that Texas is a 5. Bryce concedes Ohio State and Wisconsin over Texas. He then notes that in all relevant areas, Texas and Baylor are identical. We put Baylor as the last 3, although this is contingent on the soon to end Texas and Baylor games.

11:12:58-11:20:00 (Oops…): At this point, we make two crucial discoveries: Hummel is out for the season, and we forgot Georgetown. We decide that, although the committee will reward Purdue for their season, the loss of Hummel is enough to drop them below Villanova. Georgetown is put on the two-line over Pitt on the strength of better wins and no bad losses. Bryce is happy—Pitt and West Virginia are so similar, he believes they ought to be on the same line.

11:20:31-11:49:29 (The 4 Line Defense): The Georgetown discovery has bumped Baylor to the 4 line. Bryce concedes that New Mexico and BYU ought to be ahead of Texas. CJ has one more spot to go. Bryce argues that Vanderbilt is the only other team with a claim to the 4 line, but CJ puts up Tennessee as his candidate. It is clear that Kansas, Kentucky and Syracuse are the elite teams; we believe that Tennessee will beat Kentucky this weekend, and own wins over two of those. Moreover, many of their losses occurred while Wayne Chism was injured. Bryce weakly offers their lack of good road wins, but concedes after briefly considering Temple. Texas drops to the five.

--The Middle Seeds--
11:57:38-12:00:38 (The 7 Seeds): From there, things progressed rather smoothly through the next 2.5 lines. When we got to the end of the 7 line, however, we were confronted with four candidates for two spots: Butler, Florida St, Marquette, and Connecticut. Connecticut went quickly, with surprisingly little discussion. Marquette was ruled out just as quickly, leaving Butler and Florida St. While Florida St. has 5 RPI top 50 wins, we decided that their horrible loss at Ohio St, combined with Butler’s defeat of the same, meant that Butler had to be the last 7.

12:02:42-12:23:55 (The 8 Seeds): So, at this point we considered Michigan St , who is going to finish with a ridiculous 2-6 against the RPI top 50. Despite how good we think they actually are, their resume is that of someone close to the bubble; besides, their UNC loss points to them being overrated. They’ll be a dangerous 8/9. We also considered UNLV, Xavier and Marquette for this line. With only 3 spots for those four, we had an argument. UNLV came out of the group first. Bryce argued against Xavier because their best win is against Richmond, a 6 seed, and talked up how well Marquette compares to Michigan St. CJ mentioned the selection committee make-up – the UConn, Ohio St, and Xavier Athletic Directors are on it, and made that the focus of his pro-Xavier argument. Right after we decided to kick Michigan St down a level, CJ remembered Northern Iowa and refused to have them as lower than an 8. We couldn’t come to an agreement on a second team to drop, so we decided that UNLV and Marquette would get screwed over by not having favorable committee members. Not the best solution, but really, this was the toughest decision we made.

--The Bubble, or, is Florida in--
12:31:07-1:17:00 (FLORIDA): The Florida debate would color the rest of the discussion; we managed to fill the next line without deciding on them. CJ started by championing Clemson as the first 10 seed. Bryce mentioned Florida, and CJ scoffed at the idea of even putting them in the bracket. Bryce argued that at 22-9 and holding wins over Tennessee, Vandy, Florida State, and Michigan St, that was enough to get Florida in. CJ discounted the win over Chism-less Tennessee, and over 8-seeds Michigan St and Florida, before attacking their weak non-conference. Bryce attempted to compare Clemson and Florida in the non-conference, and made the claim that a team can’t just schedule good teams, they have to beat some. CJ responded by pointing out Florida’s loss to South Alabama, and mentioned that Florida’s best wins came as splits in season series. Bryce responded that Clemson’s best wins came as splits in season series (Georgia Tech, Maryland), and showed that Florida had played the same number of top 50 RPI games (11) as Clemson, winning one more. At this point Bryce allowed that Clemson could be as much as four spots above Florida, due to the South Alabama loss. CJ returned to trashing the Florida non-conference, and showed Bryce Florida’s 220th ranked non-con SOS. Bryce checked in on Clemson’s non-con SOS, and triumphantly reported that Clemson’s non-conference ranked 250th, and revised his prior positioning statement to 3 spots. In disbelief, CJ listed off all of Florida’s crappy non-conference games; Bryce listed off the same number (7) of crappy Clemson non-conference games. CJ responded by listing off the good Clemson non-conference games; Bryce listed off the same number (4) of good Florida non-conference games. CJ finally conceded Florida on the 12 line.

Other teams mentioned in the course of the Florida debate were Illinois (Briefly at 12:36), William & Mary (Briefly at 12:37), Rhode Island (Briefly at 12:40), Old Dominion (Briefly at 12:59), Cal (1:04), Charlotte (1:07:04-1:11:09). Illinois was placed in because of their win at Clemson; William and Mary was discarded because of the Towson lost (but revisited later); Rhode Island was discarded because of their lack of wins (but revisited later and placed on the 10); Old Dominion was placed in at first mention; Cal was discarded because they have 0 top 50 wins; Charlotte was debated, and thrown into the disagreement pile – CJ thought they’d end the season 3-1, Bryce thought they’d end 1-3. Our 10 line ended as Old Dominion, Louisville, Clemson, URI, and Florida, USF, and Charlotte are on our “disagreement line”.

1:18:10-1:29:28 sees the South Florida debate. 1:30:10-1:38:35 sees CJ successfully argue for Notre Dame over South Florida, Seton Hall, and Virginia Tech, putting them in the bracket on the strength of their 2 wins over teams in the top 3 lines. While this seems weak, the quest to fill the final bracket shows just how strong that looks. When the committee is looking at the bubble, they are looking for reasons why a team should be in the bracket—and Notre Dame, South Florida, Florida, and Charlotte have them. We conclude by placing William and Mary in on the strength of two strong road wins, and then have to decide on St. Mary’s vs. San Diego St. While SDSU has the better resume, SMC beat them by 22, and makes it as the last team in the bracket.

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Purdue's March Hopes Dashed

Hummel is out for the season, I think at this point they'll be lucky to get a 2 seed... I can see them falling to a #3 seed come selection sunday

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

A Message to Bubble Teams

Bubble Teams:
Please Stop Losing.
This was painful.


Yea, we just got finished the consensus seedlist. It hurt. Quite badly.

1: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova
2: Purdue, Kansas St., Duke, Georgetown
3: West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Ohio St, Wisconsin
4: New Mexico, Baylor, BYU, Tennessee
5: Temple, Texas, Maryland, Vanderbilt
6: Texas A&M, Wake Forest, Richmond, Gonzaga
7: Georgia Tech, Missouri, Connecticut, Butler
8: Florida St, Northern Iowa, Xavier, Michigan St
9: UNLV, Marquette, Utah St., Oklahoma St.
10: Old Dominion, Illinois, Clemson, Louisville
11: Notre Dame, South Florida, Florida, Charlotte
12: William and Mary, UTEP, Cornell, St. Mary’s
13: Cal, Murray St, Siena, Kent St
14: Oakland, Weber St, SoCon (Wofford), Sam Houston St
15: Pacific, Coastal Carolina, A-Sun (Belmont), Morgan St
16: Sun Belt (W. Kentucky), AE (Vermont), Patriot (Lehigh), NEC (Robert Morris), SWAC (UA-Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: San Diego St, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, Dayton
Next Four Out: Minnesota, VCU, UAB, Washington

Bids by Conference:
Big East (10): Syracuse, Villanova, Georgetown, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, South Florida
Big 12 (6): Kansas, Kansas St, Baylor, Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma St
ACC (5): Duke, Maryland, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Clemson
Big 10 (5): Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio St, Michigan St, Illinois
A-10 (4): Temple, Richmond, Xavier, Charlotte
SEC (4): Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida
MWC (3): New Mexico, BYU, UNLV
WCC (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's
CAA (2): Old Dominion, William and Mary
Pac-10 (1): Cal

Our debate over this bracket will appear sometime tomorrow.

Florida in the Field??? NOT SO FAST MY FRIENDS!

My Bracket is up, go check it out!

Florida In?
Florida did have an impressive win last night over UT, but you have to remember its a home win against a Chismless Tennesee team. Florida's best non-conference win is Michigan State which has nowhere near the value it did around Christmas. I still like Dayton for now.

Other Thoughts on Bryce's Bracket

- ND 2nd team out? This has to be a typo... he meant to have them on the next 4 out line I would imagine... if not he's got a lot of explaining to do.

- Glad to see I finally got him on the UNM bandwagon, If they get this 4 seed and stay out West I WILL PICK THEM FOR THE FINAL FOUR... they are that good.

- Purdue over Nova for now due to the # of Big East losses they have against the top, but they have time to change this

- I think I have Maryland too high at a 7, and Bryce is crazy for having them at 6

- UConn will be this year's Arizona... Bracketologists didn't have Arizona in last year (WE did of course) and they won't learn from their mistakes



Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Hop on the UConn Bandwagon? Been there, Done That?

So, the guys over at Bracketology 101 think they're driving the Connecticut bandwagon. Ain't got nothing on us. Had them in on February 14, and now they're settled back into their original placing. Here's a chat transcript from a few minutes ago:

Bryce (10:17:32 PM): Hey, if you're not gonna be done with your bracket tonight
Bryce (10:17:45 PM): You want to just do a criticism/defense of mine?
CJ (10:17:49 PM): I'll have it up by midnight
Bryce (10:18:06 PM): I have some good points to attack.
Bryce (10:18:26 PM): Michigan St. and UConn are on the same line
CJ (10:18:39 PM): i might agree with it
CJ (10:18:44 PM): depending what the # is
Bryce (10:18:47 PM): 7
CJ (10:18:55 PM): i basically agree
Bryce (10:19:26 PM): the only bracketologists that are giving them above an 11 seed are computers
Bryce (10:19:39 PM): and 2/3 still have them out
CJ (10:19:43 PM): i love how people think they are a bubble team
CJ (10:19:45 PM): its hilarious
CJ (10:19:47 PM): it really is
Bryce (10:20:05 PM): Like, they beat a one seed on the road
Bryce (10:20:22 PM): i mean, thats almost enough to get you into the tournament by itself
Bryce (10:20:27 PM): but then to beat a two?
Bryce (10:20:42 PM): and a three?
CJ (10:20:55 PM): i agree
CJ (10:20:59 PM): preaching to the choir

If you think that I'm off my rocker, and that losses mean something, look at last year, Boston College and Maryland.

Monday, February 22, 2010

Only an Illusion...

10 Big East teams in the tournament, that is. After taking a good hard look (actually, an entirely new perspective), I've decided that Rhode Island will get in over Seton Hall. But, had Seton Hall beaten Virginia Tech way back when, they would totally make the tournament.

Anyway, I have a new bracket up. Check it out under Bryce's Bracket.

Friday, February 19, 2010

10 Big East teams?

Hey everyone,

Both Seige and I have posted new seedlists, to be found under our links up top. I decided to throw in all the auto-bids, and I made up a nice, shiny new bracket to go with the seedlist (So basically what I'm saying is that since I made my section look nicer than Seige's, you should value my opinion more).

So check out our seedlists, then come back and give us comment here.


And so it begins...

The annual race to not make the tournament, that is. Plenty of high-impact games last night – making me do a lot to fix my seed list:

Pittsburgh 58, At Marquette 51: Well… okay. So I’ve been listing Marquette as a 6-7 seed for the past few weeks, mainly on the belief that they would win all but one of their remaining games, including this one against Pitt. This loss send them backsliding. Instead of being the top of the 15 team clump mentioned in the bracket debate, the Golden Eagles are now closer to the bottom. Moreover, if they can’t beat Louisville in a couple of weeks, they may very well fall all the way out of the tournament.

Syracuse 75, At Georgetown 71: So, if you watch ESPN, you already know that Syracuse is undefeated in road and neutral site games this year, picking up such scalps Florida, Cal, UNC, West Virginia and Notre Dame. This just adds to the overly set of data that Syracuse does quite well on the road. Moreover, Syracuse only has one two tough games left – a home game against Nova, and a road game at Louisville. I think that with this win, Syracuse has assured themselves of a top 3 seed – even if they were end on a 5 game losing streak. Additionally, this loss helps resolve the logjam around the two line – Georgetown will most likely not be a two.

Vanderbilt 82, At Mississippi 78: Vanderbilt adds another win, which will help in their quest to get a 4 seed. However, the real story here is that Ole Miss is now in serious trouble. Without the Vanderbilt win, it looks like they will have only one win against the RPI top 50, and only 4 against the RPI top 100. Compare that to South Florida (2 and 8), Charlotte (4 and 4), Virginia Tech (2 and 7) or Seton Hall (2 and 7), and you see that they are in huge trouble.

At Oregon St 80, Cal 64; Southern Cal 67, At Washington 64: To those of you who think the Pac-10 is getting two bids: The Pac-10 isn’t getting two bids. The Pac-10 isn’t getting two bids. Whenever you think “Well, Cal or Washington will just tear everyone up to end the season” – remember tonight, when EVERY SINGLE UNDERDOG won. In other news, Southern Cal probably would have provided the Pac-10 with a second bid were they not ineligible for the postseason.

At Minnesota 68, Wisconsin 52: This loss probably won’t change seeding for Wisconsin. However, it does still hurt their effort to get placed in the Milwaukee pod. Assuming Kentucky is a 1 seed, they will go to Milwaukee, so Wisconsin needed to finish ahead of Purdue. I don’t see that happening. As for Minnesota – this win is key in getting back to the discussion. Now, if they can beat Purdue, or make it to the Big 10 tournament finals, they may be able to snag a bid. Until then, however, they are firmly out of the discussion.

At Loyola Marymount 74, Gonzaga 68: You may be thinking “So what? Gonzaga is still going to be a high seed, and Loyola Marymount is still way out. And you would be correct. However, Gonzaga is trying to get into a first-round site in Spokane (which they can do, because Washington State is hosting). I think they need to be a least a five seed for that to happen. When you have a resume that is built off of a November neutral site win, a gaudy win count, and a great RPI, well, you need to not lose. This loss may make the difference between a 5 seed playing in Spokane, and a 6 seed playing in New Orleans.

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Consensus Seedlist Through February 12

Our first consensus bracket of the year! Note that since we believe that seed lists only make sense if you are predicting where teams will be in March, the fact that this bracket is four days old has very little actual effect on it.

Also, be sure to check out the debate we had over this bracket in the "Bracket Debate" Section. Our big debates included Syracuse vs. Purdue, Wisconsin vs. Duke vs. Georgetown vs. Pitt, the final spot on the 6 line, and the huge bubble debate, culminating in South Florida vs. Virginia Tech vs. Dayton.

1: Kansas, Villanova, Kentucky, Syracuse
2: Purdue, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Duke
3: Georgetown, Pitt, Kansas St., Ohio St.
4: Texas, Vanderbilt, New Mexico, Tennessee
5: Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Michigan St, Baylor
6: BYU, Texas A&M, Temple, Marquette
7: Richmond, UConn, Maryland, Missouri
8: Butler, Xavier, Georgia Tech, Northern Iowa
9: Florida, Clemson, Florida St., William and Mary
10: Old Dominion, Oklahoma St, Illinois, Louisville
11: Charlotte, UNLV, South Florida, Mississippi
12: Dayton, Washington, Cornell, UAB

The bracket is also available under the consensus bracket link.

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Welcome to Busting Bracketologists

Welcome to the home of Busting Bracketologists, where our expert staff of bracketologists will give you all the information you need to make yourself look like a star on selection Sunday.

Our website is pleased to contain an expert staff including 2 of the 4 bracketologists to accurately select all 65 teams from the tournament field last year, including one that finished in the Top 5 nationally.

Each week (or there abouts) our 3 man staff will compile individual brackets of all 65 teams in the field, at that point we will combine the brackets (through agreement and consensus building) to come up with our Consensus bracket.

These brackets will be released by Tuesday, at which point our staff will debate differences in the Bracket Debate Area, and on Friday, we'll post our mailbag comments into that area.

Welcome to Busting Bracketologists and if you have any suggestions for our staff, feel free to contact us via email which can be found in the about us section.

Busting Bracketologists Staff