While I wait for CJ to return from Florida, I figured I'd post about something that bothers me. Recently, various media and blogger types have been saying that since Cal won the Pac-10 regular season, Cal is in. I don't think it works that way. Let's look at some key numbers on Cal.
RPI: 20
SOS: 13
Well, those look good...
Wins against tournament teams: 3-6
Well, thats not horrible. Wait. Who are those wins, you ask? Washington... who they also lost to twice. Murray St and UC-SB? They're in the tournament? Ohhhhh... AQs. If you take out the two AQ's, Cal is 1-6 vs. tournament teams (notably, also their record vs. the RPI top 50).
Okay, okay... what about their RPI top 100 record? 5-7. Come on... William and Mary is 6-7, and has better wins. Rhode Island is 7-7, and has better wins.
Bad Losses: 3
I know, I hate using bad losses. But some blogger whose writing I normally respect was trying to justify Cal by saying that their profile should be evaluated like a mid-major, and that they had avoided bad losses. Cal had three bad losses: at USC, at Oregon St, and at Pauley against UCLA.
Since I've already used one measure that I despise, lets take a look at another. Road/Neutral Record: 8-9. Not terrible, but certainly not something to hang your hat on.
Its fairly obvious that Washington, who took 2 out of 3 from Cal, actually has a halfway decent win (against A&M), and has a better record against the top 100 (8-5 vs. 5-7) will be seeded higher than Cal. I currently have Washington as a 12. This does not bode well for Cal.
If the Golden Bears get in, it will be a travesty.
EDIT: And my biggest trouble was finding a team to take Cal's spot. Thank you, New Mexico St Aggies, for solving my problem.
Showing posts with label Cal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cal. Show all posts
Saturday, March 13, 2010
Friday, February 26, 2010
Bracket Debate
So our bracket debate is finally up. We decided to summarize it this week, just in case you don’t want to take the time sorting our arguments. The bracket debate is time-stamped, so if you want to read what was actually said, we have provided the times when each area was discussed. Highlights are Nova/Purdue, Duke/Pitt, the merits of Florida, and the overwhelming suckage at the bottom of the at-large teams.
--1 Seeds--
10:10:58-10:25:18: Debating Villanova vs. Purdue for the final one seed. CJ questions Villanova’s numerous losses to elite teams; Bryce focuses on Purdue’s lack of wins. We conclude that if Nova finishes 14-4 in the Big East, they’ll get the one seed; and if they lose two games, they’ll be a two seed. Since we disagree on how many they will win, we decide to move on to the two line and revisit this debate later.
--2 Seeds--
10:33:06-10:35:40 (Is Pitt a 2?) : After agreeing upon Kansas St. as the second two seed, we get stuck with three candidates for two spots: Duke, Pitt, and West Virginia. CJ wants Duke and West Virginia; Bryce wants West Virginia and Pitt. Bryce argues that Pitt has winning road records over teams in top 50 and top 100 RPI, and shows how their overall categories match up with West Virginia. CJ focuses on their loss to IU and their blowout loss to Notre Dame, saying that “by that logic, Notre Dame would have to be in the field. And they’re not.” Bryce counters with Louisville’s one seed despite a similar loss last year.
10:37:03- 10:47:25 (Is Duke a 2?): Trying a different tack, Bryce argues that Duke is not on the two-line because they haven’t beaten anyone who will be in the top 5 lines. CJ believes that the sheer quantity of wins over tournament teams (8) and the lack of bad losses pushes Duke over Pitt. Bryce talks about Duke’s minimal road wins. CJ refuses to keep Duke off the two line, and offers to allow West Virginia onto the three line if Purdue gets to be the final one. We agree, thus finishing the top two lines… or so we think.
--In Defense of Texas--
10:47:49-10:56:52 (The 3 Line Defense): Bryce’s attempts to defend Texas as a three seed are mostly unsuccessful. He notes that Texas has 6 wins against the RPI top 50, 11 against the top 100. CJ keys on their potential 4-8 record in the last 12; Bryce thinks that will be closer to 6-6. Bryce counters he has evidence that last 12 record has no correlation to seed. CJ pulls out the “eye test”, claiming that Texas is a 5. Bryce concedes Ohio State and Wisconsin over Texas. He then notes that in all relevant areas, Texas and Baylor are identical. We put Baylor as the last 3, although this is contingent on the soon to end Texas and Baylor games.
11:12:58-11:20:00 (Oops…): At this point, we make two crucial discoveries: Hummel is out for the season, and we forgot Georgetown. We decide that, although the committee will reward Purdue for their season, the loss of Hummel is enough to drop them below Villanova. Georgetown is put on the two-line over Pitt on the strength of better wins and no bad losses. Bryce is happy—Pitt and West Virginia are so similar, he believes they ought to be on the same line.
11:20:31-11:49:29 (The 4 Line Defense): The Georgetown discovery has bumped Baylor to the 4 line. Bryce concedes that New Mexico and BYU ought to be ahead of Texas. CJ has one more spot to go. Bryce argues that Vanderbilt is the only other team with a claim to the 4 line, but CJ puts up Tennessee as his candidate. It is clear that Kansas, Kentucky and Syracuse are the elite teams; we believe that Tennessee will beat Kentucky this weekend, and own wins over two of those. Moreover, many of their losses occurred while Wayne Chism was injured. Bryce weakly offers their lack of good road wins, but concedes after briefly considering Temple. Texas drops to the five.
--The Middle Seeds--
11:57:38-12:00:38 (The 7 Seeds): From there, things progressed rather smoothly through the next 2.5 lines. When we got to the end of the 7 line, however, we were confronted with four candidates for two spots: Butler, Florida St, Marquette, and Connecticut. Connecticut went quickly, with surprisingly little discussion. Marquette was ruled out just as quickly, leaving Butler and Florida St. While Florida St. has 5 RPI top 50 wins, we decided that their horrible loss at Ohio St, combined with Butler’s defeat of the same, meant that Butler had to be the last 7.
12:02:42-12:23:55 (The 8 Seeds): So, at this point we considered Michigan St , who is going to finish with a ridiculous 2-6 against the RPI top 50. Despite how good we think they actually are, their resume is that of someone close to the bubble; besides, their UNC loss points to them being overrated. They’ll be a dangerous 8/9. We also considered UNLV, Xavier and Marquette for this line. With only 3 spots for those four, we had an argument. UNLV came out of the group first. Bryce argued against Xavier because their best win is against Richmond, a 6 seed, and talked up how well Marquette compares to Michigan St. CJ mentioned the selection committee make-up – the UConn, Ohio St, and Xavier Athletic Directors are on it, and made that the focus of his pro-Xavier argument. Right after we decided to kick Michigan St down a level, CJ remembered Northern Iowa and refused to have them as lower than an 8. We couldn’t come to an agreement on a second team to drop, so we decided that UNLV and Marquette would get screwed over by not having favorable committee members. Not the best solution, but really, this was the toughest decision we made.
--The Bubble, or, is Florida in--
12:31:07-1:17:00 (FLORIDA): The Florida debate would color the rest of the discussion; we managed to fill the next line without deciding on them. CJ started by championing Clemson as the first 10 seed. Bryce mentioned Florida, and CJ scoffed at the idea of even putting them in the bracket. Bryce argued that at 22-9 and holding wins over Tennessee, Vandy, Florida State, and Michigan St, that was enough to get Florida in. CJ discounted the win over Chism-less Tennessee, and over 8-seeds Michigan St and Florida, before attacking their weak non-conference. Bryce attempted to compare Clemson and Florida in the non-conference, and made the claim that a team can’t just schedule good teams, they have to beat some. CJ responded by pointing out Florida’s loss to South Alabama, and mentioned that Florida’s best wins came as splits in season series. Bryce responded that Clemson’s best wins came as splits in season series (Georgia Tech, Maryland), and showed that Florida had played the same number of top 50 RPI games (11) as Clemson, winning one more. At this point Bryce allowed that Clemson could be as much as four spots above Florida, due to the South Alabama loss. CJ returned to trashing the Florida non-conference, and showed Bryce Florida’s 220th ranked non-con SOS. Bryce checked in on Clemson’s non-con SOS, and triumphantly reported that Clemson’s non-conference ranked 250th, and revised his prior positioning statement to 3 spots. In disbelief, CJ listed off all of Florida’s crappy non-conference games; Bryce listed off the same number (7) of crappy Clemson non-conference games. CJ responded by listing off the good Clemson non-conference games; Bryce listed off the same number (4) of good Florida non-conference games. CJ finally conceded Florida on the 12 line.
Other teams mentioned in the course of the Florida debate were Illinois (Briefly at 12:36), William & Mary (Briefly at 12:37), Rhode Island (Briefly at 12:40), Old Dominion (Briefly at 12:59), Cal (1:04), Charlotte (1:07:04-1:11:09). Illinois was placed in because of their win at Clemson; William and Mary was discarded because of the Towson lost (but revisited later); Rhode Island was discarded because of their lack of wins (but revisited later and placed on the 10); Old Dominion was placed in at first mention; Cal was discarded because they have 0 top 50 wins; Charlotte was debated, and thrown into the disagreement pile – CJ thought they’d end the season 3-1, Bryce thought they’d end 1-3. Our 10 line ended as Old Dominion, Louisville, Clemson, URI, and Florida, USF, and Charlotte are on our “disagreement line”.
1:18:10-1:29:28 sees the South Florida debate. 1:30:10-1:38:35 sees CJ successfully argue for Notre Dame over South Florida, Seton Hall, and Virginia Tech, putting them in the bracket on the strength of their 2 wins over teams in the top 3 lines. While this seems weak, the quest to fill the final bracket shows just how strong that looks. When the committee is looking at the bubble, they are looking for reasons why a team should be in the bracket—and Notre Dame, South Florida, Florida, and Charlotte have them. We conclude by placing William and Mary in on the strength of two strong road wins, and then have to decide on St. Mary’s vs. San Diego St. While SDSU has the better resume, SMC beat them by 22, and makes it as the last team in the bracket.
--1 Seeds--
10:10:58-10:25:18: Debating Villanova vs. Purdue for the final one seed. CJ questions Villanova’s numerous losses to elite teams; Bryce focuses on Purdue’s lack of wins. We conclude that if Nova finishes 14-4 in the Big East, they’ll get the one seed; and if they lose two games, they’ll be a two seed. Since we disagree on how many they will win, we decide to move on to the two line and revisit this debate later.
--2 Seeds--
10:33:06-10:35:40 (Is Pitt a 2?) : After agreeing upon Kansas St. as the second two seed, we get stuck with three candidates for two spots: Duke, Pitt, and West Virginia. CJ wants Duke and West Virginia; Bryce wants West Virginia and Pitt. Bryce argues that Pitt has winning road records over teams in top 50 and top 100 RPI, and shows how their overall categories match up with West Virginia. CJ focuses on their loss to IU and their blowout loss to Notre Dame, saying that “by that logic, Notre Dame would have to be in the field. And they’re not.” Bryce counters with Louisville’s one seed despite a similar loss last year.
10:37:03- 10:47:25 (Is Duke a 2?): Trying a different tack, Bryce argues that Duke is not on the two-line because they haven’t beaten anyone who will be in the top 5 lines. CJ believes that the sheer quantity of wins over tournament teams (8) and the lack of bad losses pushes Duke over Pitt. Bryce talks about Duke’s minimal road wins. CJ refuses to keep Duke off the two line, and offers to allow West Virginia onto the three line if Purdue gets to be the final one. We agree, thus finishing the top two lines… or so we think.
--In Defense of Texas--
10:47:49-10:56:52 (The 3 Line Defense): Bryce’s attempts to defend Texas as a three seed are mostly unsuccessful. He notes that Texas has 6 wins against the RPI top 50, 11 against the top 100. CJ keys on their potential 4-8 record in the last 12; Bryce thinks that will be closer to 6-6. Bryce counters he has evidence that last 12 record has no correlation to seed. CJ pulls out the “eye test”, claiming that Texas is a 5. Bryce concedes Ohio State and Wisconsin over Texas. He then notes that in all relevant areas, Texas and Baylor are identical. We put Baylor as the last 3, although this is contingent on the soon to end Texas and Baylor games.
11:12:58-11:20:00 (Oops…): At this point, we make two crucial discoveries: Hummel is out for the season, and we forgot Georgetown. We decide that, although the committee will reward Purdue for their season, the loss of Hummel is enough to drop them below Villanova. Georgetown is put on the two-line over Pitt on the strength of better wins and no bad losses. Bryce is happy—Pitt and West Virginia are so similar, he believes they ought to be on the same line.
11:20:31-11:49:29 (The 4 Line Defense): The Georgetown discovery has bumped Baylor to the 4 line. Bryce concedes that New Mexico and BYU ought to be ahead of Texas. CJ has one more spot to go. Bryce argues that Vanderbilt is the only other team with a claim to the 4 line, but CJ puts up Tennessee as his candidate. It is clear that Kansas, Kentucky and Syracuse are the elite teams; we believe that Tennessee will beat Kentucky this weekend, and own wins over two of those. Moreover, many of their losses occurred while Wayne Chism was injured. Bryce weakly offers their lack of good road wins, but concedes after briefly considering Temple. Texas drops to the five.
--The Middle Seeds--
11:57:38-12:00:38 (The 7 Seeds): From there, things progressed rather smoothly through the next 2.5 lines. When we got to the end of the 7 line, however, we were confronted with four candidates for two spots: Butler, Florida St, Marquette, and Connecticut. Connecticut went quickly, with surprisingly little discussion. Marquette was ruled out just as quickly, leaving Butler and Florida St. While Florida St. has 5 RPI top 50 wins, we decided that their horrible loss at Ohio St, combined with Butler’s defeat of the same, meant that Butler had to be the last 7.
12:02:42-12:23:55 (The 8 Seeds): So, at this point we considered Michigan St , who is going to finish with a ridiculous 2-6 against the RPI top 50. Despite how good we think they actually are, their resume is that of someone close to the bubble; besides, their UNC loss points to them being overrated. They’ll be a dangerous 8/9. We also considered UNLV, Xavier and Marquette for this line. With only 3 spots for those four, we had an argument. UNLV came out of the group first. Bryce argued against Xavier because their best win is against Richmond, a 6 seed, and talked up how well Marquette compares to Michigan St. CJ mentioned the selection committee make-up – the UConn, Ohio St, and Xavier Athletic Directors are on it, and made that the focus of his pro-Xavier argument. Right after we decided to kick Michigan St down a level, CJ remembered Northern Iowa and refused to have them as lower than an 8. We couldn’t come to an agreement on a second team to drop, so we decided that UNLV and Marquette would get screwed over by not having favorable committee members. Not the best solution, but really, this was the toughest decision we made.
--The Bubble, or, is Florida in--
12:31:07-1:17:00 (FLORIDA): The Florida debate would color the rest of the discussion; we managed to fill the next line without deciding on them. CJ started by championing Clemson as the first 10 seed. Bryce mentioned Florida, and CJ scoffed at the idea of even putting them in the bracket. Bryce argued that at 22-9 and holding wins over Tennessee, Vandy, Florida State, and Michigan St, that was enough to get Florida in. CJ discounted the win over Chism-less Tennessee, and over 8-seeds Michigan St and Florida, before attacking their weak non-conference. Bryce attempted to compare Clemson and Florida in the non-conference, and made the claim that a team can’t just schedule good teams, they have to beat some. CJ responded by pointing out Florida’s loss to South Alabama, and mentioned that Florida’s best wins came as splits in season series. Bryce responded that Clemson’s best wins came as splits in season series (Georgia Tech, Maryland), and showed that Florida had played the same number of top 50 RPI games (11) as Clemson, winning one more. At this point Bryce allowed that Clemson could be as much as four spots above Florida, due to the South Alabama loss. CJ returned to trashing the Florida non-conference, and showed Bryce Florida’s 220th ranked non-con SOS. Bryce checked in on Clemson’s non-con SOS, and triumphantly reported that Clemson’s non-conference ranked 250th, and revised his prior positioning statement to 3 spots. In disbelief, CJ listed off all of Florida’s crappy non-conference games; Bryce listed off the same number (7) of crappy Clemson non-conference games. CJ responded by listing off the good Clemson non-conference games; Bryce listed off the same number (4) of good Florida non-conference games. CJ finally conceded Florida on the 12 line.
Other teams mentioned in the course of the Florida debate were Illinois (Briefly at 12:36), William & Mary (Briefly at 12:37), Rhode Island (Briefly at 12:40), Old Dominion (Briefly at 12:59), Cal (1:04), Charlotte (1:07:04-1:11:09). Illinois was placed in because of their win at Clemson; William and Mary was discarded because of the Towson lost (but revisited later); Rhode Island was discarded because of their lack of wins (but revisited later and placed on the 10); Old Dominion was placed in at first mention; Cal was discarded because they have 0 top 50 wins; Charlotte was debated, and thrown into the disagreement pile – CJ thought they’d end the season 3-1, Bryce thought they’d end 1-3. Our 10 line ended as Old Dominion, Louisville, Clemson, URI, and Florida, USF, and Charlotte are on our “disagreement line”.
1:18:10-1:29:28 sees the South Florida debate. 1:30:10-1:38:35 sees CJ successfully argue for Notre Dame over South Florida, Seton Hall, and Virginia Tech, putting them in the bracket on the strength of their 2 wins over teams in the top 3 lines. While this seems weak, the quest to fill the final bracket shows just how strong that looks. When the committee is looking at the bubble, they are looking for reasons why a team should be in the bracket—and Notre Dame, South Florida, Florida, and Charlotte have them. We conclude by placing William and Mary in on the strength of two strong road wins, and then have to decide on St. Mary’s vs. San Diego St. While SDSU has the better resume, SMC beat them by 22, and makes it as the last team in the bracket.
Friday, February 19, 2010
And so it begins...
The annual race to not make the tournament, that is. Plenty of high-impact games last night – making me do a lot to fix my seed list:
Pittsburgh 58, At Marquette 51: Well… okay. So I’ve been listing Marquette as a 6-7 seed for the past few weeks, mainly on the belief that they would win all but one of their remaining games, including this one against Pitt. This loss send them backsliding. Instead of being the top of the 15 team clump mentioned in the bracket debate, the Golden Eagles are now closer to the bottom. Moreover, if they can’t beat Louisville in a couple of weeks, they may very well fall all the way out of the tournament.
Syracuse 75, At Georgetown 71: So, if you watch ESPN, you already know that Syracuse is undefeated in road and neutral site games this year, picking up such scalps Florida, Cal, UNC, West Virginia and Notre Dame. This just adds to the overly set of data that Syracuse does quite well on the road. Moreover, Syracuse only has one two tough games left – a home game against Nova, and a road game at Louisville. I think that with this win, Syracuse has assured themselves of a top 3 seed – even if they were end on a 5 game losing streak. Additionally, this loss helps resolve the logjam around the two line – Georgetown will most likely not be a two.
Vanderbilt 82, At Mississippi 78: Vanderbilt adds another win, which will help in their quest to get a 4 seed. However, the real story here is that Ole Miss is now in serious trouble. Without the Vanderbilt win, it looks like they will have only one win against the RPI top 50, and only 4 against the RPI top 100. Compare that to South Florida (2 and 8), Charlotte (4 and 4), Virginia Tech (2 and 7) or Seton Hall (2 and 7), and you see that they are in huge trouble.
At Oregon St 80, Cal 64; Southern Cal 67, At Washington 64: To those of you who think the Pac-10 is getting two bids: The Pac-10 isn’t getting two bids. The Pac-10 isn’t getting two bids. Whenever you think “Well, Cal or Washington will just tear everyone up to end the season” – remember tonight, when EVERY SINGLE UNDERDOG won. In other news, Southern Cal probably would have provided the Pac-10 with a second bid were they not ineligible for the postseason.
At Minnesota 68, Wisconsin 52: This loss probably won’t change seeding for Wisconsin. However, it does still hurt their effort to get placed in the Milwaukee pod. Assuming Kentucky is a 1 seed, they will go to Milwaukee, so Wisconsin needed to finish ahead of Purdue. I don’t see that happening. As for Minnesota – this win is key in getting back to the discussion. Now, if they can beat Purdue, or make it to the Big 10 tournament finals, they may be able to snag a bid. Until then, however, they are firmly out of the discussion.
At Loyola Marymount 74, Gonzaga 68: You may be thinking “So what? Gonzaga is still going to be a high seed, and Loyola Marymount is still way out. And you would be correct. However, Gonzaga is trying to get into a first-round site in Spokane (which they can do, because Washington State is hosting). I think they need to be a least a five seed for that to happen. When you have a resume that is built off of a November neutral site win, a gaudy win count, and a great RPI, well, you need to not lose. This loss may make the difference between a 5 seed playing in Spokane, and a 6 seed playing in New Orleans.
Pittsburgh 58, At Marquette 51: Well… okay. So I’ve been listing Marquette as a 6-7 seed for the past few weeks, mainly on the belief that they would win all but one of their remaining games, including this one against Pitt. This loss send them backsliding. Instead of being the top of the 15 team clump mentioned in the bracket debate, the Golden Eagles are now closer to the bottom. Moreover, if they can’t beat Louisville in a couple of weeks, they may very well fall all the way out of the tournament.
Syracuse 75, At Georgetown 71: So, if you watch ESPN, you already know that Syracuse is undefeated in road and neutral site games this year, picking up such scalps Florida, Cal, UNC, West Virginia and Notre Dame. This just adds to the overly set of data that Syracuse does quite well on the road. Moreover, Syracuse only has one two tough games left – a home game against Nova, and a road game at Louisville. I think that with this win, Syracuse has assured themselves of a top 3 seed – even if they were end on a 5 game losing streak. Additionally, this loss helps resolve the logjam around the two line – Georgetown will most likely not be a two.
Vanderbilt 82, At Mississippi 78: Vanderbilt adds another win, which will help in their quest to get a 4 seed. However, the real story here is that Ole Miss is now in serious trouble. Without the Vanderbilt win, it looks like they will have only one win against the RPI top 50, and only 4 against the RPI top 100. Compare that to South Florida (2 and 8), Charlotte (4 and 4), Virginia Tech (2 and 7) or Seton Hall (2 and 7), and you see that they are in huge trouble.
At Oregon St 80, Cal 64; Southern Cal 67, At Washington 64: To those of you who think the Pac-10 is getting two bids: The Pac-10 isn’t getting two bids. The Pac-10 isn’t getting two bids. Whenever you think “Well, Cal or Washington will just tear everyone up to end the season” – remember tonight, when EVERY SINGLE UNDERDOG won. In other news, Southern Cal probably would have provided the Pac-10 with a second bid were they not ineligible for the postseason.
At Minnesota 68, Wisconsin 52: This loss probably won’t change seeding for Wisconsin. However, it does still hurt their effort to get placed in the Milwaukee pod. Assuming Kentucky is a 1 seed, they will go to Milwaukee, so Wisconsin needed to finish ahead of Purdue. I don’t see that happening. As for Minnesota – this win is key in getting back to the discussion. Now, if they can beat Purdue, or make it to the Big 10 tournament finals, they may be able to snag a bid. Until then, however, they are firmly out of the discussion.
At Loyola Marymount 74, Gonzaga 68: You may be thinking “So what? Gonzaga is still going to be a high seed, and Loyola Marymount is still way out. And you would be correct. However, Gonzaga is trying to get into a first-round site in Spokane (which they can do, because Washington State is hosting). I think they need to be a least a five seed for that to happen. When you have a resume that is built off of a November neutral site win, a gaudy win count, and a great RPI, well, you need to not lose. This loss may make the difference between a 5 seed playing in Spokane, and a 6 seed playing in New Orleans.
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