Monday, February 14, 2011

Bearkats, Tigers, and Spartans

So, looking around at a couple of teams that other people disagree with me on.

Cincinnati - Currently 19-6, 6-6 in the Big East, Wins over XU and at St. John's. With their current resume, it is almost unthinkable to me that 64/65 brackets over at the Bracket Matrix have them in. I mean, its a crappy resume, and most of those brackets are "as of now" projections. However, I foresee Cincinnati winning at least 3 of their remaining games. If they get a two game separation from Seton Hall (projected team 12 in the Big East), they should get in, especially since that will require a win against someone in the Big East's Elite 6.

Clemson - Currently 17-8, 6-5 in the ACC. Best wins at home vs. Florida St and BC. Okay, so I goofed. I have two spreadsheets. I updated Clemson's resume to reflect the home loss to North Carolina in the main one (where I keep a list of the projected top 150 RPI teams, along with the record splits for the top 100), but not the one where I was doing the seed list. So, in my next seed list, expect Clemson to drop without that big win I had projected for them.

Michigan State - Currently 13-10, 6-6 in the Big 10. Best Wins: Wisconsin, Minnesota, vs. Washington. I predict that Michigan St will go 2-4 to end the year. The smallest separation between wins and losses for an at-large team in the past 4 years was Arizona 2007, who was 18-13 on selection Sunday. There was a huge outcry, and only 2 or 3 bracketologists (including me) had them in. Knowing what I do now, I might have left them out. This is relevant, because a 2-4 finish will put Michigan St at 15-14 and 8-10 in the Big 10. I think it is clear why I refuse to consider this team, despite the Izzo factor.

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