Well Played, Aztecs

You know that advertisement for “The Show”, that baseball game for the PS3, which ends with the blonde dude using the line “Well played, Mauer”. Right now, I just want to turn to SDSU and say “Well played, Aztecs.” That and much more, brought to you by this Fantastic Friday.

What happened yesterday?

The Bubble Strengthens:
My “team that is certainly not in” San Diego St has shown me up and dressed me down. Knocking off both Colorado St and New Mexico is enough to put them in today’s bracket, what with a 4-7 record vs. the RPI top 100, and two elite wins. I don’t know if that will be enough to keep them in the field come Sunday, though. Illinois and Minnesota also playing their way into the field, with their 5th RPI top 50 win apiece. Rhode Island moved out of the last four in by pounding St. Louis, also ending SLU’s slight chances, and Georgia Tech also locked themselves in by beating Maryland.

West Virginia’s quest for a one continues:
This is shaping up to be the most interesting one seed race we’ve had in at least a couple of years. Realistically, there are 4 candidates: West Virginia, Duke, Kansas St, and Ohio St. Each of those teams needs to win their conference tournament to have a shot at it. Assuming a conference tournament title, I rank them KSU>WVU>Duke>OSU. However, Kansas State’s chances are minimal at best so we’re back to looking at the team with 6 top 25 wins—WVU.

Whats on tap for tonight?
Bid-Stealers: Houston vs. UTEP; Washington vs. Cal; New Mexico St vs. Utah St – The first team I listed for each of those games is currently out of the tournament, while the latter is solidly in. Wins in these games would steal a bid from my last four in. Look for South Florida and Illinois to see their bids disappear today.

The Most Important Game, Illinois vs. Ohio St.:
Unlike South Florida, however, Illinois still has a game. If the Illini can win this one, they’ll pull themselves off the bubble. If not, I think they’ll find at the mercy of the bid-stealers. But remember, this is an Ohio State team with Evan Turner, still in play for a one seed. I don’t see this ending well.

West Virginia vs. Georgetown, Kansas St vs. Kansas, Duke vs. Miami (FL):
Speaking of Ohio St… as mentioned earlier, these three teams are also in contention for the final one seeds. Quoting my math textbook, I’ll leave it as an exercise for the reader to pick out who has the easiest route to the one seed.

North Carolina St vs. Georgia Tech:
By the way, you see that last one seed matchup? The 1/12 matchup in the semis of the ACC tournament? The other side of the bracket is just as wacky, with a 6/8 matchup. Anyways, North Carolina St and Miami are looking to play their way into the tournament. North Carolina St has already played itself onto the bubble, and Miami would be on the bubble with a victory over Duke.

One Bids:
Long Beach St vs. UC-Santa Barbara: Winner is a 14 seed. I don't feel like saying more about this.

Sam Houston St vs. Stephen F. Austin; South Carolina St. vs. Morgan St:
North Texas will be watching these games intently. Sam Houston St and Morgan St are heavy favorites, and would garner 15 seeds if they win. However, if either were to stumble, their opponents are only worthy of a 16 seed, and would push the Mean Green onto that 15 line.

Texas Southern vs. UA-Pine Bluff: The winner of this game is a lock for the play-in game. Both have RPIs beyond 170.

Upset Thursday

What were the major headlines of upset Thursday?
West Virginia has a shot at a one? With Syracuse, Villanova, and Pitt all falling in short succession, West Virginia is now projected to win the Big East conference, a feat which would give them 19 top 100 wins. Only Kentucky is projected to have as many as 19. However, I believe that Duke’s 11 top 50 wins (as compared to West Virginia’s 7) will give them the nod. If Duke were to falter, then we may see two Big East one seeds. (As an aside – I started writing this halfway through the West Virginia game. I started rewriting this as Cincinnati came back. Glad I saved it.)

Conference USA goes from potential 3-bid league to 1-bid. A day which began with such promise had only one bit of good news for the 9th-best conference: UTEP is as good as advertised. UAB and Memphis, however, each fell short. Both had to work to do entering the conference tournament; those losses pop the bubbles for each. Moreover, this loss drops Memphis from the ranks of the top 50, weakening the resume of everyone in the tourney.

Bryce’s watch-list: Florida and SDSU escape; Arizona St falls. Florida, who Bryce has been keying on for a while, nearly played their way out of the tournament, before coming back and defeating Auburn. On the “not on the bubble” list from yesterday – Arizona St. fell to Stanford, destroying their hopes of the autobid and leaving Washington as the last hope of the Pac-10 conference for a second bid. San Diego St, however, outlasted the Rams of Colorado St, 76-74. In my eyes, this is a plus – all the other bracketologists will keep them in the bracket, and be shocked when they are out (like they did last year).

ACC joins in the fun. Miami beats Wake Forest, North Carolina State beats Clemson, Virginia beats Boston College. Only the 7-11 matchup (Georgia Tech/North Carolina) did not partake, but at least the Tarheels put up a fight to end their disappointing season. Incidentally, despite these upsets, not much should change by way of seeding.

What’s on tap for tomorrow?
Patriot League Championship: Lehigh vs. Lafayette. With Jackson St. losing in the SWAC tournament, the SWAC tournament champion is now a lock for the play-in game. The only question: will its opponent be Winthrop, the upset champion out of the Big South, or Lafayette, whose 11 100+ losses and 1 GAME PLAYED against the RPI top 100 (a 97-64 rout by Georgetown) will similarly condemn it to Dayton.

Dayton vs. Xavier – Speaking of Dayton… as of now, Dayton is in my last four out. Obviously, I project them to lose this game. Moreover, the teams above them can’t lose enough to put them in – they have to play themselves in. The dichotomy for the Flyers is simple: Win and you’re in, lose and you’re out.

Michigan St. vs. Minnesota – The Gophers also have the ability to play their way into the tournament tomorrow. Right now, they have 5 RPI top 100 wins, and 12 total losses. While a win here would have Minnesota right on the edge, it would also enable them to get a game against Hummel-less Purdue tomorrow with a chance to win their win in.

Wisconsin vs. Illinois – Illinois is quite similar to Minnesota, with 5 top 100 wins and 13 total losses. However, unlike Minnesota, their 5 wins come as 4 top 50 wins. With a win here, they’d have 5 – one short of the 6 top 50 wins that got Arizona in last year. With a loss, however, their arguments will fall on deaf ears.

Florida vs. Mississippi St – You may have noticed that Florida is IN as of now, despite what CJ thinks. However, his predictions relegating Florida to the NIT may (Read: Probably will) come true if Florida is unable to win here.

UTEP vs. Tulsa – At this point, it seems all but certain that UTEP will be the lone C-USA team in the tournament. However, they could still lose, as they have to face Tulsa here on their home court. Last time they played here, the Miners took it 78-70. Tulsa, however, is playing for their tournament lives. Bubble teams everywhere will be watching this game.

Tennessee vs. Mississippi – Mississippi is probably in at 6-9 against the RPI top 100. But, without a win here, they will be palpitating on Sunday. No I’m not trying to be pretentious; it just that I’m as tired as you are of hearing about teams “sweating it out”. Thought I’d use a different word.

Georgia vs. Vanderbilt – I think this Georgia team has a finals run in them. So does CJ. Obviously, this means that you should immediately go bet on the Commodores.

Rhode Island vs. St. Louis – Returning to the A-10: I think Rhode Island is in regardless of what happens here. However, if Georgia and Tulsa were to win their respective conference tournaments, and URI does not win here, then their spot will be gone. Meanwhile, some still think SLU could sneak in with a finals run. I disagree, but not vehemently. Besides, the Billikens have the Majerus-power necessary to pull off a conference tourney run.

West Virginia vs. Notre Dame – As mentioned above, a win here will keep the Mountaineers in the hunt for a 1 seed. It should also be said that an Irish win here (their 7th straight) would put them in good shape to earn a 6 seed. Seriously – a 6-3 record over the RPI top 50 (and 13 RPI top 100 wins) compares pretty favorably with Richmond. Is this the fastest rise from Bottom Half of the NIT to Top Half of the NCAA?

Five High Impact Games of the Last Week

The five games between 02/23 and 03/01 that really impacted the brackets:

1)@ Oklahoma St 85, Kansas 77: This was a key win for the Cowboys. Instead of sitting at 3-7 vs. the RPI top 50, 8-8 in conference, with one great win and two decent wins, they now add a second elite win, and are projected 4-6 against the RPI top 50. That pushes them off the bubble and into the 6-8 seed range.

2) @ Notre Dame 68, Pitt 53; Notre Dame78, @ Georgetown 64: Two games pushed Notre Dame from “solidly out” to “near the top of the bubble”. These two games give the Irish two additional wins over top 25 teams, and are now projected to go .500 against RPI top 50 teams, and 9-8 against the top 100. More important is the fact that they won on the road against a decent team. The win in DC helped eliminate the major flaw in the Irish resume – the lack of a big road win.

3) Michigan St 53, @Purdue 44: This win shores up the drooping Michigan St resume with a road win, but opens up two new questions. First, how good is Michigan St, really? This team lost at home by 12 to a healthy Purdue team, lost by 11 to Texas on the road, lost by 7 to North Carolina on the road, lost by 3 on a neutral court to Florida, and lost by 5 on the road to Illinois. Even their wins (4 points at home over Gonzaga, 7 points at home over Wisconsin) seem to indicate that this team should be somewhere between a 6 and 8 seed, with a 5 as the ceiling. But that begs the question “How good is Purdue without Robbie Hummel”? With what we saw Saturday, I’d say that this Purdue team is about on par with Illinois. They’ll still garner a high seed in the tournament, but look for them to be upset early.

4) New Mexico 83, @BYU 81: One of the big knocks on New Mexico was that despite their gaudy 27-3 record, the only road wins they had were against UNLV and New Mexico St. Moreover, a loss here would have assured them of finishing second in their conference. By completing the sweep, New Mexico answered both of those knocks. They will finish the season 28-3, 7-2 against the RPI top 50, with one loss outside the RPI top 50. They are very comparable to the 2s and the 3s, and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see them in the final four.

5) Minnesota 62, @Illinois 60: This loss puts Illinois in a precarious position – while 4 RPI top 50 scalps is nice, their overall projected profile (18-13, 4-8 vs. RPI top 50, 1-2 vs. RPI 50-100) seems to suggest that most nights, this team can’t play with the big boys. Imagine how different this would look with a 2-1 instead of a 1-2. That little switch puts Illinois right on the cut line.

Quick Hit Honorable Mentions:
Clemson 53, @Florida St 50: Florida St and Clemson essentially switch places on the bubble.
Maryland 104, @Virginia Tech 100: Maryland creates separation at the top of the ACC.
@Tennessee 74, Kentucky 65: I have to admit, CJ was right: I wasn’t giving Tennessee the full weight of their projected win over Kentucky.
@St. Bonaventure 81, Rhode Island 74; @George Washington 75, Charlotte 70: When your resume is based around the fact that you haven’t taken any bad losses, taking a bad loss is devastating.