Sunday, March 14, 2010

Selection Sunday Liveblog!

(NOTE: CJ's comments will be in bold, Bryce non-bold)

4:30 We are trying to bracket our seed lines but we are running into huge BE problems... we have too many big east teams at the bottom, only way to respond is to move Pitt to 4, ND to 5 etc... or move WVU to the 1... so we are moving WVU to the 1...

3:23: Here's what we have now. This is almost final, but we're going to take 45, then come back and confirm seeding, confirm our bubble.

1: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
2: West Virginia, Kansas St, Ohio St, New Mexico
3: Villanova, Pittsburgh, Baylor, Temple
4: Georgetown, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A&M
5: Tennessee, Richmond, Vanderbilt, Butler
6: Gonzaga, Oklahoma St., Maryland, Wake Forest
7: Michigan St, Texas, Notre Dame, Northern Iowa
8: St. Mary’s, Georgia Tech, Xavier, Louisville
9: Marquette, Clemson, Florida St, BYU
10: Utah St, UNLV, San Diego St, Missouri
11: Old Dominion, UTEP, Washington, Mississippi St
12: Cornell, New Mexico St, Minnesota, Illinois
13: Siena, Murray St, Wofford, Oakland
14: Houston, Ohio, UC-Santa Barbara, Sam Houston St.
15: Montana, E. Tennessee St, Morgan St, North Texas
16: Vermont, Robert Morris, Lehigh, Winthrop, UA-Pine Bluff

3:16: Mississippi St is in. Eye Test. I feel like Illinois is this years Arizona. So we're down to Minnesota/Virginia Tech.

3:10: Bryce is trying to get Miss St. out of the field, idk how he can do that, taking UK to OT 2x, this time by .1 seconds, do u really think the tournament committee would hold a team out because of .1 seconds? They have some mercy.

2:58: The Bubble teams. For the last three spots, we're looking at William and Mary, Florida, Virginia Tech, Illinois, Minnesota, Mississippi St. Florida gets discarded immediately - there just isn't anything there. We're going to attack this like we're looking for reasons to put these teams in.
Positives of each:
Virginia Tech: 8-5 vs. RPI top 100, wins @ GT, vs. WF and Clemson. 23-8 overall record.
Illinois: 5 RPI top 50 wins, neutral site over Wisconsin, wins vs. Vanderbilt and Michigan St, and @Clemson.
Florida: Wins over Tennessee and Vanderbilt. OUT
William and Mary: Wins @ WF and Maryland, and vs. Richmond.
Minnesota: 5 RPI top 50 wins, neutral site win over Butler, Wisconsin, vs. Michigan State and Ohio St, 27 stomping of Purdue.
Mississippi St: 9-6 vs. RPI top 100, wins vs. Vanderbilt and Old Dominion

2:44: BYU crisis - are they too low on the 9. Heart says yes, but I can't do it. Almost convinced CJ to drop Okie St down a line, but he changed his mind. Clemson and Florida St got put on the nine line at the expense of UNLV and Utah St.

2:36: We're just kind of chilling out, watching the SEC championship. Got done through the nine line. Xavier and Louisville both are 8s - Xavier because of the Committee Rep, Louisville because of the sweep of Syracuse. Here's what we have:

1: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
2: West Virginia, Kansas St, Ohio St, New Mexico
3: Villanova, Pittsburgh, Baylor, Temple
4: Georgetown, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A&M
5: Tennessee, Richmond, Vanderbilt, Butler
6: Gonzaga, Oklahoma St., Maryland, Wake Forest
7: Michigan St, Texas, Notre Dame, Northern Iowa
8: St. Mary’s, Georgia Tech, Xavier, Louisville
9: Marquette, Utah St, UNLV, BYU
10: San Diego St.

2:15: I hate moving the Mountain West teams down, but it has to happen. They just don't have the right stuff to get compete with these other teams, especially not with a committee rep. Reminds me, Wake's AD is on the committee. They get boosted up to the 6 line, and Michigan St falls to the 7. Personally, I think that Michigan St has no unqualified wins besides the razor thin home win over Gonzaga, and thats gonna count against them.

2:03: I feel like we have forgotten the Spartans... this would make my life easier, Drop Wake to the 7 line and then drop UNLV to the 8 line... they have wins at Purdue and at home vs Wisconsin (granted both with injury Q's) but Lucas missed some game time too...

1:52: ND's resume is stronger than Wake's on paper, but how can you have Gonzaga and Maryland on the 6 and then not put Wake who has beaten both of those teams, ND's resume says 7 7 7 7 all over it, if they are a 6 I'll take the point loss. Now who to put up on the 6, I guess I'm going to have to look at the resumes again, I guess I'll relook at UNI and GT, I think we are overrating the #7 RPI Conference in the Mountain West, yet they have 4 tournament teams which shows that the bottom of the conference is very weak and doesn't help the resumes, beating each other up only gets so far. Maybe Michigan State goes here?

1:50: I just handed CJ the Wake and Notre Dame resumes. I'll let him post about that.

1:45: After slotting Gonzaga and Ok St, we put up 7 teams for the last two spots on the 6 line: UNLV, BYU, Northern Iowa, Maryland, Wake Forest, Louisville, Georgia Tech. UNLV and BYU slid, because CJ thinks we're overseeding them - CJ will sum that up. Maryland is an obvious choice because of their win over Duke, Northern Iowa goes on the 7. UNI has a lot of top 100 wins. Wake, by virtue of being the last team with a winning top 50 record, goes on the 6.

1:31: Bryce will get the 3 points for having them in the tournament. Also, Oklahoma St's 5-10 record versus the RPI top 100 will keep them off the 5.

1:27: Bryce will get 0 points for Ok. State

1:24: Finally getting back to the 6 line, where we left off. Arguing about Oklahoma St. Great wins. CJ is convinced that Kansas, Baylor, @ Kansas St. will give them the 5 seed.

1:05 I think that Miss St. is in assuming they don't blow up in this SEC Final..., plus then the committee doesn't need to make 2 brackets ;)

1:01: Friend just noted idiot mistake re: Cal. The loss to UCLA was not at Pauley, but at Cal. That friend still think thats regular season Pac-10 championship counts for something. Not when 6/10 teams are 100+ in RPI.

12:52: Damn you Jay Bilas, stop making sense. He's making it hard to keep Duke as a 1. He just advocated against his own team. Also, CJ is talking UTEP down to the 10.

12:46: Just gave the USU and UTEP resumes to CJ. He agree's - almost the same, but USU is better. USU on the 8, with St. Mary's; UTEP on the 9.

12:43 Cal is out... they just don't have the wins and according to the Lesson from 2008, the committee doesn't care if you try to schedule and fail... OUT, and Bryce just threw our first resume across the table

12:39 PM: UNLV and BYU are the same resume, except UNLV won at New Mexico, but has worse losses. We slotted BYU on the 6 line, so UNLV goes to the 7 line.

12:33 PM: Thank you Jay Bilas! He just confirmed everything we thought about Cal.

12:24 PM: Lets get this started. Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, in that order. Duke and West Virginia have the exact same resume. We argued this back and forth last night. Finally, we make the decision based on the eye-test.

5:00 AM: So, CJ and I have decided to keep a liveblog detailing our Selection Sunday. We actually started discussing around 12:00 AM, and ran until 3:30 AM, just getting a rough idea of where the bracket stands. I will now regurgitate the lessons we learned the hard way from the past two years.

1) Teams with an RPI over 80 aren't getting in (Arizona St., '08)
2) Bad Losses don't matter (Boston College, '09)
3) Big 6 conference teams with a Committee rep should be bumped up.
4) Road/Neutral Record Doesn't Matter
4) Elite road wins do matter. (Boston College '09)
5) When no one has an elite win, don't compare wins. Compare number of wins. (Gonzaga '09)

Thats all I can think of for now. See you in a few hours.


Jack said...

I was thinking that the bolded teams when you list your brackets are the autobids ... but you have both Saint Mary's and Gonzaga listed. Mistake, or am I misinterpreting the bolding?

(I'm assuming it isn't the two identities like in the rest of the text, because that makes no sense in this context!)

CJ Kaltenbach said...

Yea mistake on our part... fixed now!

Jack said...

Thanks, guys. Keep up the good work!

(And Gonzaga is still bolded on the one from earlier today at 2:36)