9:43: So, IRL, Bryce got 294, and the Consensus got 297.
7:59: Err.... The consensus got 298.
7:19: Bryce got 285, CJ got 299.
6:51: Consensus got 290 points. 63/65 correct, 29 seeded correctly, 50 within 1.
6:39: The Committee broke the rules. 3 BE teams in one region?
6:32: WHHHHHHHHHAT?????? LOUISVILLE IS OUT?????
6:24: And... we're done. Florida was in, but Minnesota was out. And we KNEW Xavier would be overseeded, we just didn't give them enough credit.
6:15: This committee is horrible. Underseeding of Tennessee, overseeding of Michigan St. Consensus missed 3 by 2 or more.
6:06 WOW... how is Duke the #3 overall seed, I don't get it... Cuse out west... yikes, tough break for the Cuse early in the show... what does this say about Cal? maybe they are in now, yikes
6:04: Wow. Syracuse the #4? Wow. Committee, you suck.
5:55: Still agonizing.
5:51: Mike Brey - "Well, not only our conference but our League"
5:28: I'm going to feel sick when I see Virginia Tech. I'm going to feel more sick if W&M makes their first tournament.
5:24: CJ and I finish up our respective brackets. All these teams are terrible. Minnesota choked. Florida is our last team in. Neither of us have confidence in this.
Sunday, March 14, 2010
Consensus Bracket FINAL
1: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, West Virginia
2: Duke, Kansas St, Ohio St, New Mexico
3: Villanova, Pittsburgh, Baylor, Temple
4: Georgetown, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A&M
5: Tennessee, Richmond, Vanderbilt, Butler
6: Gonzaga, Oklahoma St., Maryland, Notre Dame
7: Wake Forest, Michigan St, Texas, BYU
8: Northern Iowa, Georgia Tech, Xavier, Louisville
9: St. Mary’s, Marquette, Clemson, Florida St
10: Utah St, UNLV, San Diego St, Missouri
11: Old Dominion, UTEP, Washington, Mississippi St
12: Cornell, New Mexico St, Illinois, Florida
13: Siena, Murray St, Wofford, Oakland
14: Houston, Ohio, UC-Santa Barbara, Sam Houston St.
15: Montana, E. Tennessee St, Morgan St, North Texas
16: Vermont, Robert Morris, Lehigh, Winthrop, UA-Pine Bluff
Last Four In: UTEP, Mississippi St, Florida, Illinois
First Four Out: Minnesota, Virginia Tech, William and Mary, Memphis
Next Four Out: Dayton, Seton Hall, Rhode Island, Cal
2: Duke, Kansas St, Ohio St, New Mexico
3: Villanova, Pittsburgh, Baylor, Temple
4: Georgetown, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A&M
5: Tennessee, Richmond, Vanderbilt, Butler
6: Gonzaga, Oklahoma St., Maryland, Notre Dame
7: Wake Forest, Michigan St, Texas, BYU
8: Northern Iowa, Georgia Tech, Xavier, Louisville
9: St. Mary’s, Marquette, Clemson, Florida St
10: Utah St, UNLV, San Diego St, Missouri
11: Old Dominion, UTEP, Washington, Mississippi St
12: Cornell, New Mexico St, Illinois, Florida
13: Siena, Murray St, Wofford, Oakland
14: Houston, Ohio, UC-Santa Barbara, Sam Houston St.
15: Montana, E. Tennessee St, Morgan St, North Texas
16: Vermont, Robert Morris, Lehigh, Winthrop, UA-Pine Bluff
Last Four In: UTEP, Mississippi St, Florida, Illinois
First Four Out: Minnesota, Virginia Tech, William and Mary, Memphis
Next Four Out: Dayton, Seton Hall, Rhode Island, Cal
Selection Sunday Liveblog!
(NOTE: CJ's comments will be in bold, Bryce non-bold)
4:30 We are trying to bracket our seed lines but we are running into huge BE problems... we have too many big east teams at the bottom, only way to respond is to move Pitt to 4, ND to 5 etc... or move WVU to the 1... so we are moving WVU to the 1...
3:23: Here's what we have now. This is almost final, but we're going to take 45, then come back and confirm seeding, confirm our bubble.
1: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
2: West Virginia, Kansas St, Ohio St, New Mexico
3: Villanova, Pittsburgh, Baylor, Temple
4: Georgetown, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A&M
5: Tennessee, Richmond, Vanderbilt, Butler
6: Gonzaga, Oklahoma St., Maryland, Wake Forest
7: Michigan St, Texas, Notre Dame, Northern Iowa
8: St. Mary’s, Georgia Tech, Xavier, Louisville
9: Marquette, Clemson, Florida St, BYU
10: Utah St, UNLV, San Diego St, Missouri
11: Old Dominion, UTEP, Washington, Mississippi St
12: Cornell, New Mexico St, Minnesota, Illinois
13: Siena, Murray St, Wofford, Oakland
14: Houston, Ohio, UC-Santa Barbara, Sam Houston St.
15: Montana, E. Tennessee St, Morgan St, North Texas
16: Vermont, Robert Morris, Lehigh, Winthrop, UA-Pine Bluff
3:16: Mississippi St is in. Eye Test. I feel like Illinois is this years Arizona. So we're down to Minnesota/Virginia Tech.
3:10: Bryce is trying to get Miss St. out of the field, idk how he can do that, taking UK to OT 2x, this time by .1 seconds, do u really think the tournament committee would hold a team out because of .1 seconds? They have some mercy.
2:58: The Bubble teams. For the last three spots, we're looking at William and Mary, Florida, Virginia Tech, Illinois, Minnesota, Mississippi St. Florida gets discarded immediately - there just isn't anything there. We're going to attack this like we're looking for reasons to put these teams in.
Positives of each:
Virginia Tech: 8-5 vs. RPI top 100, wins @ GT, vs. WF and Clemson. 23-8 overall record.
Illinois: 5 RPI top 50 wins, neutral site over Wisconsin, wins vs. Vanderbilt and Michigan St, and @Clemson.
Florida: Wins over Tennessee and Vanderbilt. OUT
William and Mary: Wins @ WF and Maryland, and vs. Richmond.
Minnesota: 5 RPI top 50 wins, neutral site win over Butler, Wisconsin, vs. Michigan State and Ohio St, 27 stomping of Purdue.
Mississippi St: 9-6 vs. RPI top 100, wins vs. Vanderbilt and Old Dominion
2:44: BYU crisis - are they too low on the 9. Heart says yes, but I can't do it. Almost convinced CJ to drop Okie St down a line, but he changed his mind. Clemson and Florida St got put on the nine line at the expense of UNLV and Utah St.
2:36: We're just kind of chilling out, watching the SEC championship. Got done through the nine line. Xavier and Louisville both are 8s - Xavier because of the Committee Rep, Louisville because of the sweep of Syracuse. Here's what we have:
1: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
2: West Virginia, Kansas St, Ohio St, New Mexico
3: Villanova, Pittsburgh, Baylor, Temple
4: Georgetown, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A&M
5: Tennessee, Richmond, Vanderbilt, Butler
6: Gonzaga, Oklahoma St., Maryland, Wake Forest
7: Michigan St, Texas, Notre Dame, Northern Iowa
8: St. Mary’s, Georgia Tech, Xavier, Louisville
9: Marquette, Utah St, UNLV, BYU
10: San Diego St.
2:15: I hate moving the Mountain West teams down, but it has to happen. They just don't have the right stuff to get compete with these other teams, especially not with a committee rep. Reminds me, Wake's AD is on the committee. They get boosted up to the 6 line, and Michigan St falls to the 7. Personally, I think that Michigan St has no unqualified wins besides the razor thin home win over Gonzaga, and thats gonna count against them.
2:03: I feel like we have forgotten the Spartans... this would make my life easier, Drop Wake to the 7 line and then drop UNLV to the 8 line... they have wins at Purdue and at home vs Wisconsin (granted both with injury Q's) but Lucas missed some game time too...
1:52: ND's resume is stronger than Wake's on paper, but how can you have Gonzaga and Maryland on the 6 and then not put Wake who has beaten both of those teams, ND's resume says 7 7 7 7 all over it, if they are a 6 I'll take the point loss. Now who to put up on the 6, I guess I'm going to have to look at the resumes again, I guess I'll relook at UNI and GT, I think we are overrating the #7 RPI Conference in the Mountain West, yet they have 4 tournament teams which shows that the bottom of the conference is very weak and doesn't help the resumes, beating each other up only gets so far. Maybe Michigan State goes here?
1:50: I just handed CJ the Wake and Notre Dame resumes. I'll let him post about that.
1:45: After slotting Gonzaga and Ok St, we put up 7 teams for the last two spots on the 6 line: UNLV, BYU, Northern Iowa, Maryland, Wake Forest, Louisville, Georgia Tech. UNLV and BYU slid, because CJ thinks we're overseeding them - CJ will sum that up. Maryland is an obvious choice because of their win over Duke, Northern Iowa goes on the 7. UNI has a lot of top 100 wins. Wake, by virtue of being the last team with a winning top 50 record, goes on the 6.
1:31: Bryce will get the 3 points for having them in the tournament. Also, Oklahoma St's 5-10 record versus the RPI top 100 will keep them off the 5.
1:27: Bryce will get 0 points for Ok. State
1:24: Finally getting back to the 6 line, where we left off. Arguing about Oklahoma St. Great wins. CJ is convinced that Kansas, Baylor, @ Kansas St. will give them the 5 seed.
1:05 I think that Miss St. is in assuming they don't blow up in this SEC Final..., plus then the committee doesn't need to make 2 brackets ;)
1:01: Friend just noted idiot mistake re: Cal. The loss to UCLA was not at Pauley, but at Cal. That friend still think thats regular season Pac-10 championship counts for something. Not when 6/10 teams are 100+ in RPI.
12:52: Damn you Jay Bilas, stop making sense. He's making it hard to keep Duke as a 1. He just advocated against his own team. Also, CJ is talking UTEP down to the 10.
12:46: Just gave the USU and UTEP resumes to CJ. He agree's - almost the same, but USU is better. USU on the 8, with St. Mary's; UTEP on the 9.
12:43 Cal is out... they just don't have the wins and according to the Lesson from 2008, the committee doesn't care if you try to schedule and fail... OUT, and Bryce just threw our first resume across the table
12:39 PM: UNLV and BYU are the same resume, except UNLV won at New Mexico, but has worse losses. We slotted BYU on the 6 line, so UNLV goes to the 7 line.
12:33 PM: Thank you Jay Bilas! He just confirmed everything we thought about Cal.
12:24 PM: Lets get this started. Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, in that order. Duke and West Virginia have the exact same resume. We argued this back and forth last night. Finally, we make the decision based on the eye-test.
5:00 AM: So, CJ and I have decided to keep a liveblog detailing our Selection Sunday. We actually started discussing around 12:00 AM, and ran until 3:30 AM, just getting a rough idea of where the bracket stands. I will now regurgitate the lessons we learned the hard way from the past two years.
1) Teams with an RPI over 80 aren't getting in (Arizona St., '08)
2) Bad Losses don't matter (Boston College, '09)
3) Big 6 conference teams with a Committee rep should be bumped up.
4) Road/Neutral Record Doesn't Matter
4) Elite road wins do matter. (Boston College '09)
5) When no one has an elite win, don't compare wins. Compare number of wins. (Gonzaga '09)
Thats all I can think of for now. See you in a few hours.
4:30 We are trying to bracket our seed lines but we are running into huge BE problems... we have too many big east teams at the bottom, only way to respond is to move Pitt to 4, ND to 5 etc... or move WVU to the 1... so we are moving WVU to the 1...
3:23: Here's what we have now. This is almost final, but we're going to take 45, then come back and confirm seeding, confirm our bubble.
1: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
2: West Virginia, Kansas St, Ohio St, New Mexico
3: Villanova, Pittsburgh, Baylor, Temple
4: Georgetown, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A&M
5: Tennessee, Richmond, Vanderbilt, Butler
6: Gonzaga, Oklahoma St., Maryland, Wake Forest
7: Michigan St, Texas, Notre Dame, Northern Iowa
8: St. Mary’s, Georgia Tech, Xavier, Louisville
9: Marquette, Clemson, Florida St, BYU
10: Utah St, UNLV, San Diego St, Missouri
11: Old Dominion, UTEP, Washington, Mississippi St
12: Cornell, New Mexico St, Minnesota, Illinois
13: Siena, Murray St, Wofford, Oakland
14: Houston, Ohio, UC-Santa Barbara, Sam Houston St.
15: Montana, E. Tennessee St, Morgan St, North Texas
16: Vermont, Robert Morris, Lehigh, Winthrop, UA-Pine Bluff
3:16: Mississippi St is in. Eye Test. I feel like Illinois is this years Arizona. So we're down to Minnesota/Virginia Tech.
3:10: Bryce is trying to get Miss St. out of the field, idk how he can do that, taking UK to OT 2x, this time by .1 seconds, do u really think the tournament committee would hold a team out because of .1 seconds? They have some mercy.
2:58: The Bubble teams. For the last three spots, we're looking at William and Mary, Florida, Virginia Tech, Illinois, Minnesota, Mississippi St. Florida gets discarded immediately - there just isn't anything there. We're going to attack this like we're looking for reasons to put these teams in.
Positives of each:
Virginia Tech: 8-5 vs. RPI top 100, wins @ GT, vs. WF and Clemson. 23-8 overall record.
Illinois: 5 RPI top 50 wins, neutral site over Wisconsin, wins vs. Vanderbilt and Michigan St, and @Clemson.
Florida: Wins over Tennessee and Vanderbilt. OUT
William and Mary: Wins @ WF and Maryland, and vs. Richmond.
Minnesota: 5 RPI top 50 wins, neutral site win over Butler, Wisconsin, vs. Michigan State and Ohio St, 27 stomping of Purdue.
Mississippi St: 9-6 vs. RPI top 100, wins vs. Vanderbilt and Old Dominion
2:44: BYU crisis - are they too low on the 9. Heart says yes, but I can't do it. Almost convinced CJ to drop Okie St down a line, but he changed his mind. Clemson and Florida St got put on the nine line at the expense of UNLV and Utah St.
2:36: We're just kind of chilling out, watching the SEC championship. Got done through the nine line. Xavier and Louisville both are 8s - Xavier because of the Committee Rep, Louisville because of the sweep of Syracuse. Here's what we have:
1: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
2: West Virginia, Kansas St, Ohio St, New Mexico
3: Villanova, Pittsburgh, Baylor, Temple
4: Georgetown, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A&M
5: Tennessee, Richmond, Vanderbilt, Butler
6: Gonzaga, Oklahoma St., Maryland, Wake Forest
7: Michigan St, Texas, Notre Dame, Northern Iowa
8: St. Mary’s, Georgia Tech, Xavier, Louisville
9: Marquette, Utah St, UNLV, BYU
10: San Diego St.
2:15: I hate moving the Mountain West teams down, but it has to happen. They just don't have the right stuff to get compete with these other teams, especially not with a committee rep. Reminds me, Wake's AD is on the committee. They get boosted up to the 6 line, and Michigan St falls to the 7. Personally, I think that Michigan St has no unqualified wins besides the razor thin home win over Gonzaga, and thats gonna count against them.
2:03: I feel like we have forgotten the Spartans... this would make my life easier, Drop Wake to the 7 line and then drop UNLV to the 8 line... they have wins at Purdue and at home vs Wisconsin (granted both with injury Q's) but Lucas missed some game time too...
1:52: ND's resume is stronger than Wake's on paper, but how can you have Gonzaga and Maryland on the 6 and then not put Wake who has beaten both of those teams, ND's resume says 7 7 7 7 all over it, if they are a 6 I'll take the point loss. Now who to put up on the 6, I guess I'm going to have to look at the resumes again, I guess I'll relook at UNI and GT, I think we are overrating the #7 RPI Conference in the Mountain West, yet they have 4 tournament teams which shows that the bottom of the conference is very weak and doesn't help the resumes, beating each other up only gets so far. Maybe Michigan State goes here?
1:50: I just handed CJ the Wake and Notre Dame resumes. I'll let him post about that.
1:45: After slotting Gonzaga and Ok St, we put up 7 teams for the last two spots on the 6 line: UNLV, BYU, Northern Iowa, Maryland, Wake Forest, Louisville, Georgia Tech. UNLV and BYU slid, because CJ thinks we're overseeding them - CJ will sum that up. Maryland is an obvious choice because of their win over Duke, Northern Iowa goes on the 7. UNI has a lot of top 100 wins. Wake, by virtue of being the last team with a winning top 50 record, goes on the 6.
1:31: Bryce will get the 3 points for having them in the tournament. Also, Oklahoma St's 5-10 record versus the RPI top 100 will keep them off the 5.
1:27: Bryce will get 0 points for Ok. State
1:24: Finally getting back to the 6 line, where we left off. Arguing about Oklahoma St. Great wins. CJ is convinced that Kansas, Baylor, @ Kansas St. will give them the 5 seed.
1:05 I think that Miss St. is in assuming they don't blow up in this SEC Final..., plus then the committee doesn't need to make 2 brackets ;)
1:01: Friend just noted idiot mistake re: Cal. The loss to UCLA was not at Pauley, but at Cal. That friend still think thats regular season Pac-10 championship counts for something. Not when 6/10 teams are 100+ in RPI.
12:52: Damn you Jay Bilas, stop making sense. He's making it hard to keep Duke as a 1. He just advocated against his own team. Also, CJ is talking UTEP down to the 10.
12:46: Just gave the USU and UTEP resumes to CJ. He agree's - almost the same, but USU is better. USU on the 8, with St. Mary's; UTEP on the 9.
12:43 Cal is out... they just don't have the wins and according to the Lesson from 2008, the committee doesn't care if you try to schedule and fail... OUT, and Bryce just threw our first resume across the table
12:39 PM: UNLV and BYU are the same resume, except UNLV won at New Mexico, but has worse losses. We slotted BYU on the 6 line, so UNLV goes to the 7 line.
12:33 PM: Thank you Jay Bilas! He just confirmed everything we thought about Cal.
12:24 PM: Lets get this started. Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, in that order. Duke and West Virginia have the exact same resume. We argued this back and forth last night. Finally, we make the decision based on the eye-test.
5:00 AM: So, CJ and I have decided to keep a liveblog detailing our Selection Sunday. We actually started discussing around 12:00 AM, and ran until 3:30 AM, just getting a rough idea of where the bracket stands. I will now regurgitate the lessons we learned the hard way from the past two years.
1) Teams with an RPI over 80 aren't getting in (Arizona St., '08)
2) Bad Losses don't matter (Boston College, '09)
3) Big 6 conference teams with a Committee rep should be bumped up.
4) Road/Neutral Record Doesn't Matter
4) Elite road wins do matter. (Boston College '09)
5) When no one has an elite win, don't compare wins. Compare number of wins. (Gonzaga '09)
Thats all I can think of for now. See you in a few hours.
Saturday, March 13, 2010
Team Sheets - Runthrough 1
So, we printed out all the team sheets today in preparation for a marathon argument session tomorrow. I decided to familiarize myself with them, and came up with a seed list. That's what I'm going to put forward as my seed list for right now.
In case you didn't hear, New Mexico St, Washington, Houston, and San Diego St all stole bids. Damn Western teams. As an aside, as detailed in the last post, the team that Washington may have stolen that bid from is Cal.
I'm calling it here first. The Cal Golden Bears will NOT make the tournament, despite being in 80/80 brackets and averaging an 8 seed.
In case you didn't hear, New Mexico St, Washington, Houston, and San Diego St all stole bids. Damn Western teams. As an aside, as detailed in the last post, the team that Washington may have stolen that bid from is Cal.
I'm calling it here first. The Cal Golden Bears will NOT make the tournament, despite being in 80/80 brackets and averaging an 8 seed.
Is Cal in?
While I wait for CJ to return from Florida, I figured I'd post about something that bothers me. Recently, various media and blogger types have been saying that since Cal won the Pac-10 regular season, Cal is in. I don't think it works that way. Let's look at some key numbers on Cal.
RPI: 20
SOS: 13
Well, those look good...
Wins against tournament teams: 3-6
Well, thats not horrible. Wait. Who are those wins, you ask? Washington... who they also lost to twice. Murray St and UC-SB? They're in the tournament? Ohhhhh... AQs. If you take out the two AQ's, Cal is 1-6 vs. tournament teams (notably, also their record vs. the RPI top 50).
Okay, okay... what about their RPI top 100 record? 5-7. Come on... William and Mary is 6-7, and has better wins. Rhode Island is 7-7, and has better wins.
Bad Losses: 3
I know, I hate using bad losses. But some blogger whose writing I normally respect was trying to justify Cal by saying that their profile should be evaluated like a mid-major, and that they had avoided bad losses. Cal had three bad losses: at USC, at Oregon St, and at Pauley against UCLA.
Since I've already used one measure that I despise, lets take a look at another. Road/Neutral Record: 8-9. Not terrible, but certainly not something to hang your hat on.
Its fairly obvious that Washington, who took 2 out of 3 from Cal, actually has a halfway decent win (against A&M), and has a better record against the top 100 (8-5 vs. 5-7) will be seeded higher than Cal. I currently have Washington as a 12. This does not bode well for Cal.
If the Golden Bears get in, it will be a travesty.
EDIT: And my biggest trouble was finding a team to take Cal's spot. Thank you, New Mexico St Aggies, for solving my problem.
RPI: 20
SOS: 13
Well, those look good...
Wins against tournament teams: 3-6
Well, thats not horrible. Wait. Who are those wins, you ask? Washington... who they also lost to twice. Murray St and UC-SB? They're in the tournament? Ohhhhh... AQs. If you take out the two AQ's, Cal is 1-6 vs. tournament teams (notably, also their record vs. the RPI top 50).
Okay, okay... what about their RPI top 100 record? 5-7. Come on... William and Mary is 6-7, and has better wins. Rhode Island is 7-7, and has better wins.
Bad Losses: 3
I know, I hate using bad losses. But some blogger whose writing I normally respect was trying to justify Cal by saying that their profile should be evaluated like a mid-major, and that they had avoided bad losses. Cal had three bad losses: at USC, at Oregon St, and at Pauley against UCLA.
Since I've already used one measure that I despise, lets take a look at another. Road/Neutral Record: 8-9. Not terrible, but certainly not something to hang your hat on.
Its fairly obvious that Washington, who took 2 out of 3 from Cal, actually has a halfway decent win (against A&M), and has a better record against the top 100 (8-5 vs. 5-7) will be seeded higher than Cal. I currently have Washington as a 12. This does not bode well for Cal.
If the Golden Bears get in, it will be a travesty.
EDIT: And my biggest trouble was finding a team to take Cal's spot. Thank you, New Mexico St Aggies, for solving my problem.
Well Played, Aztecs
You know that advertisement for “The Show”, that baseball game for the PS3, which ends with the blonde dude using the line “Well played, Mauer”. Right now, I just want to turn to SDSU and say “Well played, Aztecs.” That and much more, brought to you by this Fantastic Friday.
This is shaping up to be the most interesting one seed race we’ve had in at least a couple of years. Realistically, there are 4 candidates: West Virginia, Duke, Kansas St, and Ohio St. Each of those teams needs to win their conference tournament to have a shot at it. Assuming a conference tournament title, I rank them KSU>WVU>Duke>OSU. However, Kansas State’s chances are minimal at best so we’re back to looking at the team with 6 top 25 wins—WVU.
Whats on tap for tonight?
Bid-Stealers: Houston vs. UTEP; Washington vs. Cal; New Mexico St vs. Utah St – The first team I listed for each of those games is currently out of the tournament, while the latter is solidly in. Wins in these games would steal a bid from my last four in. Look for South Florida and Illinois to see their bids disappear today.
The Most Important Game, Illinois vs. Ohio St.:
Unlike South Florida, however, Illinois still has a game. If the Illini can win this one, they’ll pull themselves off the bubble. If not, I think they’ll find at the mercy of the bid-stealers. But remember, this is an Ohio State team with Evan Turner, still in play for a one seed. I don’t see this ending well.
West Virginia vs. Georgetown, Kansas St vs. Kansas, Duke vs. Miami (FL):
Speaking of Ohio St… as mentioned earlier, these three teams are also in contention for the final one seeds. Quoting my math textbook, I’ll leave it as an exercise for the reader to pick out who has the easiest route to the one seed.
North Carolina St vs. Georgia Tech:
By the way, you see that last one seed matchup? The 1/12 matchup in the semis of the ACC tournament? The other side of the bracket is just as wacky, with a 6/8 matchup. Anyways, North Carolina St and Miami are looking to play their way into the tournament. North Carolina St has already played itself onto the bubble, and Miami would be on the bubble with a victory over Duke.
One Bids:
Long Beach St vs. UC-Santa Barbara: Winner is a 14 seed. I don't feel like saying more about this.
Sam Houston St vs. Stephen F. Austin; South Carolina St. vs. Morgan St:
North Texas will be watching these games intently. Sam Houston St and Morgan St are heavy favorites, and would garner 15 seeds if they win. However, if either were to stumble, their opponents are only worthy of a 16 seed, and would push the Mean Green onto that 15 line.
Texas Southern vs. UA-Pine Bluff: The winner of this game is a lock for the play-in game. Both have RPIs beyond 170.
What happened yesterday?
The Bubble Strengthens:
My “team that is certainly not in” San Diego St has shown me up and dressed me down. Knocking off both Colorado St and New Mexico is enough to put them in today’s bracket, what with a 4-7 record vs. the RPI top 100, and two elite wins. I don’t know if that will be enough to keep them in the field come Sunday, though. Illinois and Minnesota also playing their way into the field, with their 5th RPI top 50 win apiece. Rhode Island moved out of the last four in by pounding St. Louis, also ending SLU’s slight chances, and Georgia Tech also locked themselves in by beating Maryland.
This is shaping up to be the most interesting one seed race we’ve had in at least a couple of years. Realistically, there are 4 candidates: West Virginia, Duke, Kansas St, and Ohio St. Each of those teams needs to win their conference tournament to have a shot at it. Assuming a conference tournament title, I rank them KSU>WVU>Duke>OSU. However, Kansas State’s chances are minimal at best so we’re back to looking at the team with 6 top 25 wins—WVU.
Whats on tap for tonight?
Bid-Stealers: Houston vs. UTEP; Washington vs. Cal; New Mexico St vs. Utah St – The first team I listed for each of those games is currently out of the tournament, while the latter is solidly in. Wins in these games would steal a bid from my last four in. Look for South Florida and Illinois to see their bids disappear today.
The Most Important Game, Illinois vs. Ohio St.:
Unlike South Florida, however, Illinois still has a game. If the Illini can win this one, they’ll pull themselves off the bubble. If not, I think they’ll find at the mercy of the bid-stealers. But remember, this is an Ohio State team with Evan Turner, still in play for a one seed. I don’t see this ending well.
West Virginia vs. Georgetown, Kansas St vs. Kansas, Duke vs. Miami (FL):
Speaking of Ohio St… as mentioned earlier, these three teams are also in contention for the final one seeds. Quoting my math textbook, I’ll leave it as an exercise for the reader to pick out who has the easiest route to the one seed.
North Carolina St vs. Georgia Tech:
By the way, you see that last one seed matchup? The 1/12 matchup in the semis of the ACC tournament? The other side of the bracket is just as wacky, with a 6/8 matchup. Anyways, North Carolina St and Miami are looking to play their way into the tournament. North Carolina St has already played itself onto the bubble, and Miami would be on the bubble with a victory over Duke.
One Bids:
Long Beach St vs. UC-Santa Barbara: Winner is a 14 seed. I don't feel like saying more about this.
Sam Houston St vs. Stephen F. Austin; South Carolina St. vs. Morgan St:
North Texas will be watching these games intently. Sam Houston St and Morgan St are heavy favorites, and would garner 15 seeds if they win. However, if either were to stumble, their opponents are only worthy of a 16 seed, and would push the Mean Green onto that 15 line.
Texas Southern vs. UA-Pine Bluff: The winner of this game is a lock for the play-in game. Both have RPIs beyond 170.
Saturday Morning Seed List
My new seed list is up. William and Mary, and Florida both fell out, with Illinois and Minnesota taking their positions.
EDIT 12:30 PM: After some re-evaluation, I moved (cue menacing music) San Diego St. in instead of South Florida. Yea, ridicule me.
EDIT 1:58 PM: So, I just finished the bracket for this seed list. And then Houston won. Therefore, I'm not going to take the time to put that bracket into bloggable form. However, the seedings today made bracketing far harder than yesterday.
EDIT 12:30 PM: After some re-evaluation, I moved (cue menacing music) San Diego St. in instead of South Florida. Yea, ridicule me.
EDIT 1:58 PM: So, I just finished the bracket for this seed list. And then Houston won. Therefore, I'm not going to take the time to put that bracket into bloggable form. However, the seedings today made bracketing far harder than yesterday.
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